Tour de France Tour de France 2025, Stage 5: Caen – Caen (33.0k, ITT)

[Bavarianrider]

If only this was at least 10km longer

 

[KZD]

Too bad it isn't a big longer but its still enough distance to cause proper gaps.

Hard to look past Remco for the win but I don't think he will gain enough time to take yellow because I expect Vingegaard and Pogacar to be very strong and close to each as well.

Almeida and Roglic to complete the top5 followed by Jorgenson, Lipowitz and Van der Poel.

Curious to see Van Aert, it would be good if he manages to get a top10.

 

[Pogacsa]

Visma can use Jorgenson as a tow for Vingo. Go easier in the first part so Vingo gets within 20” behind the other team car and then let Matteo go all in at Vingo’s pace so he can stay close/in to the slipstream untill the end.

But I guess they want Jorgenson as high up in GC as long as possible.

They normally alter the starting order to prevent such conflicts of interest. So expect Jorgenson to start before Vauquelin

 

[Berniece]

It'll get windier by the end of the ITT. Won't make a difference for top contenders except Evenepoel having an edge being more aero, but Plapp might ride top 5-10 thanks to it.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Plapp's start time:

11

126

13:15:00

PLAPP Luke

Team Jayco AlUla

Could be sitting the hot seat for a few hours.

 

[Peyroteo94]

How will be the wind?

 

[Berniece]

How will be the wind?

Mostly from the side, and stronger in the late afternoon, ~20km/h

 

[search]

It'll get windier by the end of the ITT. Won't make a difference for top contenders except Evenepoel having an edge being more aero, but Plapp might ride top 5-10 thanks to it.

I think Evenepoel would prefer a headwind on the 2nd part rather than at the start, but should still be an advantage from him indeed.

From the early starters, I would rate Romeo higher than Plapp, but who knows.

 

[fenns]

betting for stage 5

Remco 75%
Jonas 9%
Pogi 7%
Affini 1.3%

noone else thought to have above 1% chance



Best result for the race as a spectacle would be for Remco to get a GC lead. Shame he's already lost all that time.

 

[Tymek]

but both will expect to be within a minute of Evenepoel.

Well, right now Remco isn’t favorite of this TT anymore. At least not such a big favorite.

 

[Tymek]

Who are the better flat TT riders here to get between the GC riders?

No one probably. I expect Pogi, Jonas and Remco to take TOP3.
If someone treats them today, we can talk about surprise.

 

[Berniece]

Well, right now Remco isn’t favorite of this TT anymore. At least not such a big favorite.

I doubt anyone will be within 20s of him.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Remco is the big favorite for sure and will win this easily (more than 20 seconds gap). I don't see what indicators did he give to not be such a favorite anymore. He got dropped by Pogi and Vingo but the best Remco ever will always get dropped by Pogacar in every steep climb (short, long).

 

[Tymek]

He c

I doubt anyone will be within 20s of him.

He crashed and Almeida dropped him just by leadout yesterday so I’m not so sure.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Good theory but I think 20" behind would be too far back to get any significant drafting effect?

At 50km/h 20" is a gap of 270 metres. Even at only 40km/h 20 seconds works out to a gap of 220 metres.

I mean, 220 meters doesn‘t sound that bad, but just the 20 seconds show that this can‘t work: The teamcar won‘t move the air so well that there would still be less air resistance there a full 20 seconds later. Especially not at 50 kph.

 

[Cookster15]

I think an expected result would be Remco taking about 30 seconds on Pog and Vingo.

IMO best result for Remco would be taking a minute (and yellow). I am sure that is what he is aiming for.

Everyone will be keen to see Pogacar's expected improvement since the Dauphine.

 

[Cycling111]

I think Pogacar would be happy not to start in yellow tomorrow. He cares more about gaining time on Vingegaard, or at least not losing too much to him.

If Remco leads, he'd have more time to rest after the stages.

Both would be happy with that situation.
But surely losing a minute to Remco would mean losing a lot to Vingegaard.

Pogacar looked very uncomfortable in Dauphiné with the material. At times he lost his balance.

We'll see if the choice was a bad one because it was a time trial with a climb.
But it's true that the UAE hasn't won a single time trial this year, while last year they won several. I'm not counting the Almeida uphill ITT in Switzerland.
McNulty is being especially mediocre, having won several last year.

 

[Jan the Man]

I doubt anyone will be within 20s of him.

Agreed.

He is too far back I think to take yellow given he would need 50s on Jonas and 58s on Pogacar unless both have a very bad day/missfortune. I think something like 25s- 35s to Jonas and 35s-45s to Pogacar are most likely outcome

 

[Netserk]

1. Evenepoel
2. Pogi
3. Vingegaard
4. Jorgenson
5. Almeida
6. Rogla
7. Van Aert
8. Lipowitz
9. Plapp
10. Armirail

 

[Ilmaestro99]

1. Evenepoel
2. Pogi
3. Vingegaard
4. Jorgenson
5. Almeida
6. Rogla
7. Van Aert
8. Lipowitz
9. Plapp
10. Armirail

1. Foss

 

[Berniece]

1. Evenepoel
2. Pogi
3. Vingegaard
4. Jorgenson
5. Almeida
6. Rogla
7. Van Aert
8. Lipowitz
9. Plapp
10. Armirail

Don't think WVA is going to go all out. If he can't win, why would he. Just save energy for next stages

 

[Netserk]

1. Foss

Strong Dark Horse. Van der Poel can also end up close to 10th.

Don't think WVA is going to go all out. If he can't win, why would he. Just save energy for next stages

Definitely possible.

 

[Cycling111]

1. Foss

Foss has only won one time trial outside of the Norwegian championships. The world championship

 

[YavorD]

I think Pogacar would be happy not to start in yellow tomorrow. He cares more about gaining time on Vingegaard, or at least not losing too much to him.

If Remco leads, he'd have more time to rest after the stages.

Both would be happy with that situation.
But surely losing a minute to Remco would mean losing a lot to Vingegaard.

Pogacar looked very uncomfortable in Dauphiné with the material. At times he lost his balance.

We'll see if the choice was a bad one because it was a time trial with a climb.
But it's true that the UAE hasn't won a single time trial this year, while last year they won several. I'm not counting the Almeida uphill ITT in Switzerland.
McNulty is being especially mediocre, having won several last year.

Pogacar will likely start in greed and deffo in polka dot, so that's not ideal as well.

 

[movingtarget]

Foss has only won one time trial outside of the Norwegian championships. The world championship

Needed that salt air of Wollongong...........