Tour de France Tour de France 2025, Stage 5: Caen – Caen (33.0k, ITT)

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Too bad it isn't a big longer but its still enough distance to cause proper gaps.

Hard to look past Remco for the win but I don't think he will gain enough time to take yellow because I expect Vingegaard and Pogacar to be very strong and close to each as well.

Almeida and Roglic to complete the top5 followed by Jorgenson, Lipowitz and Van der Poel.

Curious to see Van Aert, it would be good if he manages to get a top10.
 
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Oct 21, 2024
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Visma can use Jorgenson as a tow for Vingo. Go easier in the first part so Vingo gets within 20” behind the other team car and then let Matteo go all in at Vingo’s pace so he can stay close/in to the slipstream untill the end.

But I guess they want Jorgenson as high up in GC as long as possible.
They normally alter the starting order to prevent such conflicts of interest. So expect Jorgenson to start before Vauquelin
 
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It'll get windier by the end of the ITT. Won't make a difference for top contenders except Evenepoel having an edge being more aero, but Plapp might ride top 5-10 thanks to it.
I think Evenepoel would prefer a headwind on the 2nd part rather than at the start, but should still be an advantage from him indeed.

From the early starters, I would rate Romeo higher than Plapp, but who knows.
 
betting for stage 5

Remco 75%
Jonas 9%
Pogi 7%
Affini 1.3%

noone else thought to have above 1% chance



Best result for the race as a spectacle would be for Remco to get a GC lead. Shame he's already lost all that time.
 
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Remco is the big favorite for sure and will win this easily (more than 20 seconds gap). I don't see what indicators did he give to not be such a favorite anymore. He got dropped by Pogi and Vingo but the best Remco ever will always get dropped by Pogacar in every steep climb (short, long).
 
Good theory but I think 20" behind would be too far back to get any significant drafting effect?

At 50km/h 20" is a gap of 270 metres. Even at only 40km/h 20 seconds works out to a gap of 220 metres.
I mean, 220 meters doesn‘t sound that bad, but just the 20 seconds show that this can‘t work: The teamcar won‘t move the air so well that there would still be less air resistance there a full 20 seconds later. Especially not at 50 kph.
 
I think Pogacar would be happy not to start in yellow tomorrow. He cares more about gaining time on Vingegaard, or at least not losing too much to him.

If Remco leads, he'd have more time to rest after the stages.

Both would be happy with that situation.
But surely losing a minute to Remco would mean losing a lot to Vingegaard.

Pogacar looked very uncomfortable in Dauphiné with the material. At times he lost his balance.

We'll see if the choice was a bad one because it was a time trial with a climb.
But it's true that the UAE hasn't won a single time trial this year, while last year they won several. I'm not counting the Almeida uphill ITT in Switzerland.
McNulty is being especially mediocre, having won several last year.
 
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I think Pogacar would be happy not to start in yellow tomorrow. He cares more about gaining time on Vingegaard, or at least not losing too much to him.

If Remco leads, he'd have more time to rest after the stages.

Both would be happy with that situation.
But surely losing a minute to Remco would mean losing a lot to Vingegaard.

Pogacar looked very uncomfortable in Dauphiné with the material. At times he lost his balance.

We'll see if the choice was a bad one because it was a time trial with a climb.
But it's true that the UAE hasn't won a single time trial this year, while last year they won several. I'm not counting the Almeida uphill ITT in Switzerland.
McNulty is being especially mediocre, having won several last year.

Pogacar will likely start in greed and deffo in polka dot, so that's not ideal as well.