Tour De France Contenders - who has a shot?

[greenedge]

Time and time again I hear people on this forum bewailing the fact that the 'outside world' cares nothing for cycling save for the Tour and yet, if there's one sure thing on cyclingnews.com, it's that a thread about the Tour (no matter what time of year it's instigated) will get a massive response.

Honestly........

It's because it's the biggest event of all cycling races

Besides it's the focus for most of the famous riders, who like the environment they are in.

For those of us not In Europe (maybe America as well ) we are not also raised with the idea of cycling so we gradually grow to learn about it. The TDF will probably be the 1st cycling event we see, so it has sentimental attachment.

 

[greenedge]

Maybe Brunyeel can somehow get Andy in a "surprise" attack during the 1st week flat stages to make up some time ? Everyone will be expecting them to attack in the mountain stages, but if he can go out in a flat stage and build a buffer then maybe he has a chance ? I'd love to see Andy solo to a win of a flat stage a la Haussler style

Hausslers' stage win was not that flat. Ivanovs' in 09 was.

Besides Evans could ride him down in 1 turn of the pedals ( unless if somehow Andy clung onto Cancellara ). The only way Andy could gain time on the flats is if there is crosswinds.

 

[The Hitch]

On two major climbs Evans set the pace and no rival went past him. They couldn't. The Schleck's couldn't beat him in the mountains...that says enough.

Umm what 2 mountains were those?

 

[theyoungest]

Umm what 2 mountains were those?

The Mont des Alouettes and the Mur de Bretagne

 

[The Hitch]

The Mont des Alouettes and the Mur de Bretagne

I was thinking that lol but the correct answers (if you stick to the parameters as proposed by GH) are actually Brie-et-Angonnes and Saint Martin D'uriage

 

[guncha]

So let’s look at the 2012 Tour de France route (only GC climbing opportunities) once again:

1. Belles Filles (stage 7). This stage can be subjected to your first point, not quite mountainous stage ie the questions may stand after it, but I would let myself be that impudent to compare that stage (or rather what theoretically may happen to GC there) to Verbier 2009 Both stages are about 200km with the only place to attack on the final ascent, there was no hard racing in several days before Verbier and so will be before Belles Filles. Verbier is 8.8 km - 7.5 %; Belles Filles is 5.9 km – 8.5%. Of course Verbier is 2.9km longer which does matter in the case of that you should reduce the bunch first before attack, but the profile of Belles Filles offers the steepness from the bottom of the climb so I guess it’s possible for the best climber to go solo for 3-4km to gain at least 30-45sec going all out.
2. Alps. 1 GC stage. I agree that the Colombier stage is pretty unfortunately designed and the most likely won’t cause any gaps between the main contenders but I don’t think it means there won’t be any attacks there and the peloton will ride it that easy to say they approach the next day’s La Toussuire challenge fresh. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t argue that it’s bad that the Colombier stage isn’t as hard as it could be with better designing but imo you can’t say it is wasted in terms of possible hard riding in context of next day. So the next day, La Toussuire. Despite only 140km length thrilling altitude gain and uphill finish for the very best.
3. Pyrenees. 2 stages. The Foix stage is just wasted and I really don’t know what’s the point of making a flat stage to Pau (apart from money) before 2 decisive Pyrenean stages to Luchon and Peyragudes. Both these stages are hard and can change the GC.

So in fact we have 3 GC mountainous stages and one medium mountains GC stage with mtf.

I am a bit skeptical about your mountain stages assessment. I still think you are too optimistic.

Belles Filles. You might have noticed that first MTFs usually is not very decisive and this by far the easiest first MTF stage in years. ASO could make it better by putting at least Ballon-d'Alsace (9km@6.9%) before Belles Filles, thus making early selection.
IMHO, Belles Filles will rather make the racing harder than create time gaps. I don't expect from it more than Mende 10. As I have already pointed out "medium mountains are nice. But they are just additional bonus to high mountain GC stages."

Colombier. I don't expect to see signs of attacks, just average tempo riding like it usually happens during transitional mountain stages. In this regard I count on my experience - usually nothing happens when H.C. or difficult 1st cat. is followed by smaller climb such far away from finish. For instance, look at Morzine 2003 when 14.3km@6.8% Ramaz (almost as hard as 17.1km@7.4% Colombier) was followed by 3rd cat. Les Gets. Apart from Colombier Stage 10 has just false 2nd cat. Cote de Corlier (6.4 km@5.5%) early in the stage and 3rd cat. Richemont (9.5km@4.5%) 20 km before the finish. Also Ramaz+Gets were much closer to the finish than Colombier + Richemont. Stage 10 should as pointless as Lourdes 11 or other similar crap stage.

Luchon. GC stage Aubisque and Tourmalet cannot be easy. But Aubisque and Tourmalet is far from finish and I don't expect anything there and most likely some 30 - 40 rider group will arrive at the foot of Peyresourde and this is the easiest side of Peyresourde (9.7km@6.8%). Will it be enough to make gaps? I don't know. Decents can both increase or decrease time gaps.

But ironic thing about this route is that on paper Belles Filles doesn't fit A.Shleck as he has performed better at longer and less steep climbs (Galibier 11, Avoriaz 10) but has lost to AC on shorter but sharper climbs (Mende 10, Verbier 09). AS wasn't comfortable on short uphill finishes of Tour 11 as well. Therefore, I expect AS to go defensibly not only during prologue, first week's ITT but also during Belles Filles stage, maybe even on small uphill finishes. His first chance could be La Toussuire which, however, suits him perfectly.

 

[theyoungest]

But ironic thing about this route is that on paper Belles Filles doesn't fit A.Shleck as he has performed better at longer and less steep climbs (Galibier 11, Avoriaz 10) but has lost to AC on shorter but sharper climbs (Mende 10, Verbier 09). AS wasn't comfortable on short uphill finishes of Tour 11 as well. Therefore, I expect AS to go defensibly not only during prologue, first week's ITT but also during Belles Filles stage, maybe even on small uphill finishes. His first chance could be La Toussuire which, however, suits him perfectly.

In comparison to Contador nothing suits Andy. But in comparison to the time trial types like Wiggo he could certainly gain some time on Belles Filles. Remember Pena Cabarga? Wiggo doesn't like that stuff, too irregular, you can't simply time trial your way up.

 

[El Pistolero]

In comparison to Contador nothing suits Andy. But in comparison to the time trial types like Wiggo he could certainly gain some time on Belles Filles. Remember Pena Cabarga? Wiggo doesn't like that stuff, too irregular, you can't simply time trial your way up.

Remember Mur de Bretagne and Andy's explanation for sucking there?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

In comparison to Contador nothing suits Andy. But in comparison to the time trial types like Wiggo he could certainly gain some time on Belles Filles. Remember Pena Cabarga? Wiggo doesn't like that stuff, too irregular, you can't simply time trial your way up.

Planche des Belles Filles is not an irregular climb when compared to Pena Cabarga.

 

[theyoungest]

I don't see how you can compare the Mur de Bretagne to the Belles Filles. Or do you expect Hushovd to challenge there as well?

Yes, this is more regular than Pena Cabarga, but it starts out quite steep. Not a good one to get the time trial diesel going, certainly if it's full throttle from the bottom.

 

[El Pistolero]

I don't see how you can compare the Mur de Bretagne to the Belles Filles. Or do you expect Hushovd to challenge there as well?

Yes, this is more regular than Pena Cabarga, but it starts out quite steep. Not a good one to get the diesel going, certainly if it's full throttle from the bottom.

Not comparing the climbs, merely pointing you at what Schleck said that day

 

[Kvinto]

I am a bit skeptical about your mountain stages assessment. I still think you are too optimistic.

Belles Filles. You might have noticed that first MTFs usually is not very decisive and this by far the easiest first MTF stage in years. ASO could make it better by putting at least Ballon-d'Alsace (9km@6.9%) before Belles Filles, thus making early selection.
IMHO, Belles Filles will rather make the racing harder than create time gaps. I don't expect from it more than Mende 10. As I have already pointed out "medium mountains are nice. But they are just additional bonus to high mountain GC stages."

Colombier. I don't expect to see signs of attacks, just average tempo riding like it usually happens during transitional mountain stages. In this regard I count on my experience - usually nothing happens when H.C. or difficult 1st cat. is followed by smaller climb such far away from finish. For instance, look at Morzine 2003 when 14.3km@6.8% Ramaz (almost as hard as 17.1km@7.4% Colombier) was followed by 3rd cat. Les Gets. Apart from Colombier Stage 10 has just false 2nd cat. Cote de Corlier (6.4 km@5.5%) early in the stage and 3rd cat. Richemont (9.5km@4.5%) 20 km before the finish. Also Ramaz+Gets were much closer to the finish than Colombier + Richemont. Stage 10 should as pointless as Lourdes 11 or other similar crap stage.

Luchon. GC stage Aubisque and Tourmalet cannot be easy. But Aubisque and Tourmalet is far from finish and I don't expect anything there and most likely some 30 - 40 rider group will arrive at the foot of Peyresourde and this is the easiest side of Peyresourde (9.7km@6.8%). Will it be enough to make gaps? I don't know. Decents can both increase or decrease time gaps.

But ironic thing about this route is that on paper Belles Filles doesn't fit A.Shleck as he has performed better at longer and less steep climbs (Galibier 11, Avoriaz 10) but has lost to AC on shorter but sharper climbs (Mende 10, Verbier 09). AS wasn't comfortable on short uphill finishes of Tour 11 as well. Therefore, I expect AS to go defensibly not only during prologue, first week's ITT but also during Belles Filles stage, maybe even on small uphill finishes. His first chance could be La Toussuire which, however, suits him perfectly.

All my ‘excessive optimism’ concerns to the situation when Contador doesn’t ride and the main favourites are Evans and A.Schleck. And the main point of this optimism is ‘A.Schleck has a chance’ (if Contador doesn’t ride) and yet you didn’t persuade me that he has not.

I said before and I say it now: if Andy wants to win he should go all out on Belles Filles, La Toussuire and Peyragudes.

Belles Filles is not comparable to Mende since Mende is a half shorter, and I argued that being steep at the bottom this climb can offer place to attack from 3-4km to the finish (though I understand that it is easier to predict the Mur de Huy-like gaps). But if you want, let's say there you can win back all you lost in the prologue.

I have no idea why you argue again that Colombier is not hard since I did not count this stage as the GC one, saying that Alps have just 1 such stage, obviously - La Toussuire. But if you say ‘Belles Filles will rather make the racing harder than create time gaps’ I can assure you Colombier fits this criterion more.

As for 2 Pyrenean stages it is very likely that only one will be really decisive, and even if Luchon won’t create gaps its climbing is perfect preparation to Peyragudes and in the end it boils down to what I wrote earlier: Belles Filles + La Toussuire + Peyragudes vs prologue + 2tts.

 

[uphillstruggle]

Remember Mur de Bretagne and Andy's explanation for sucking there?

What was it? If it's anything like the other stuff he came out with during the race it should make me laugh/annoy me.

 

[Kvinto]

What was it? If it's anything like the other stuff he came out with during the race it should make me laugh/annoy me.

He said climbs like Mur de Bretagne don't suit him because he isn't punchy enough to sprint on 1km ascent, and prefers longer climbs

 

[roundabout]

it boils down to what I wrote earlier: Belles Filles + La Toussuire + Peyragudes vs prologue + 2tts.

So it's a 6km climb, a very good but too short and too early mountain stage and another short stage with only Mente prior to the Bales+Peyragudes.

More climbs in the Vosges, extra km on the Toussuire stage (ideally a start at Annecy) and a finish at Pla-d'Adet after Portillon, Mente, Ares, Bales, Peyresourde and Azet and only then there's a balance between the climbs and time trials.

 

[guncha]

All my ‘excessive optimism’ concerns to the situation when Contador doesn’t ride and the main favourites are Evans and A.Schleck. And the main point of this optimism is ‘A.Schleck has a chance’ (if Contador doesn’t ride) and yet you didn’t persuade me that he has not.

Andy has chance with or without Contador. He still is second best GT rider and he is at least equal to Contador in mountains. Pantani won TDF 98 which wasn't climber friendly at all. Everything is possible.

I have no idea why you argue again that Colombier is not hard since I did not count this stage as the GC one, saying that Alps have just 1 such stage, obviously - La Toussuire. But if you say ‘Belles Filles will rather make the racing harder than create time gaps’ I can assure you Colombier fits this criterion more.

I am not saying Colombier is easy climb but the stage with Colombier 42,5km before finish makes no sense. I was frustrated with Lourdes 11, Pau 10, Saint-Girons 09, Tarbes 09 etc. In fact Colombier stage has even less climbing km than all of these but Lourdes 11. None of these stages were ridden in high tempo. Belles Filles is better because it should create at least tiny gaps and most likely will be ridden very fast.

it boils down to what I wrote earlier: Belles Filles + La Toussuire + Peyragudes vs prologue + 2tts.

Way too less GC mountain stages for GT but normal for Dauphine Libere.

 

[Kvinto]

So it's a 6km climb, a very good but too short and too early mountain stage and another short stage with only Mente prior to the Bales+Peyragudes.

More climbs in the Vosges, extra km on the Toussuire stage (ideally a start at Annecy) and a finish at Pla-d'Adet after Portillon, Mente, Ares, Bales, Peyresourde and Azet and only then there's a balance between the climbs and time trials.

I did not say there is balance. I just look forward to seeing how the climbers will ride the stages they would have never considered (Colombier, Luchon or hilly stages) is the certain situation when there is only 3 reasonable GC stages.

 

[happychappy]

Andy has chance with or without Contador. He still is second best GT rider and he is at least equal to Contador in mountains.

The "second best" GT rider who hasn't even won a GT. No. The little baby shleck is most definitely not the second best GT rider.

 

[trevim]

He said climbs like Mur de Bretagne don't suit him because he isn't punchy enough to sprint on 1km ascent, and prefers longer climbs

I never understood why a guy that has won Liege in style isn't suited to hills and isn't punchy enough

 

[Kvinto]

Way too less GC mountain stages for GT but normal for Dauphine Libere.

Yes, not enough to say there is a balanced route, but it has nothing to do with possibility of the Tour 2012 being entertaining

 

[Kvinto]

I never understood why a guy that has won Liege in style isn't suited to hills and isn't punchy enough

Yep, and second in Fleche Wallonne

 

[guncha]

The "second best" GT rider who hasn't even won a GT. No. The little baby shleck is most definitely not the second best GT rider.

Who is 2nd best then? Evans? Basso? Nibali? Cobo?

 

[guncha]

Yes, not enough to say there is a balanced route, but it has nothing to do with possibility of the Tour 2012 being entertaining

Good route doesn't guarantee exciting racing while bad route almost certainly guarantee crap.

 

[The Hitch]

Who is 2nd best then? Evans? Basso? Nibali? Cobo?

Why does Menchov keeps getting forgotten. Time and time again. Not just by you by everyone. Is he invisible or something.

Also the Nibali hype is sometimes a bit frustrating. I love the guy, one of my favourite cyclists, but when he keeps getting ranked by almost everyone as a more likely tdf contender then Menchov and Sanchez, it gets a bit boring after a while. And his name doesnt belong in a best gt riders list ahead of Menchov

 

[uphillstruggle]

I never understood why a guy that has won Liege in style isn't suited to hills and isn't punchy enough

He is good in long hard classics probably, getting away from guys who have ridden 220 Km's of brutal climbing is different to competing with punchy climbers at the end of a relatively flat stage.

His assessment of the Mur and his own abilities seem well reasoned to me. Almost, dare I say, honest and self deprecating.