Tour De France Contenders - who has a shot?

[The Hitch]

What the heck? He is 8-1 at best now and not even Alberto moves the odds like that.

Wiggins is 9-2 btw.

Ive never betted before but checked the odds out and was scrambling for my credit card.

For some reason he was ranked below Andy Schleck, Wiggins, Samuel Sanchez (even I dont think thats the right way round), now come the good ones,

Froome
Valverde
Nibali

Froome was around 15 -1 as I remember, Nibali ahead of Sanchez for some reason at 30-1 and 40 -1, Valverde was around 50-1 and Menchov was between 40-1 and 66-1 depending on the site and I chose the one at 66-1.

On some he was even ranked below Frank Schleck

I was like lol.

 

[The Hitch]

I can already see the "Best GT of 2012?" thread dominated by Vuelta votes

Is it official he can ride the Vuelta?

I doubt it, but if he could it would be like unleashing the New Zealand All Blacks World Cup Rugby squad onto the Yorkshire Under 13's local championship.

entertaining just to see how big the win

 

[The Hitch]

Yes he can ride from August 6 onwards so the Vuelta should be his main target on his return

Feck. Tour of Poland, quick move your dates to August 7th. Who cares if you are competing with Olympics, the Great One is coming back.

 

[Kvinto]

The cheat is a part of professional sport, the professional sport is cheat.
The justice sorts out cheaters into caught and uncaught, doing another cheat itself.
It's the main reason why i don't pay attention to 'the clinic'.
Nevertheless it's somehow good for the 2012 Tour because the winner is still unknown, but the damage is done for the sport.

 

[jens_attacks]

it will be a 2006 all over again.put money on a shocking winner,i will put some on kern,cobo,froome,horner,kasheckhin,velits.i hope it will be great even without alberto

 

[LaFlorecita]

Sorry i think its August 5. Its one or the other. Can someone confirm which one it is for certain. The 5th or the 6th he can start riding?

The 5th.
.........

 

[airstream]

jens_attacks, stange that Horner is only the 4th in your list.

Very interesting if the things will change in the mountains and if they will how it'll happen. I suppose, there're only 2 scenarious actually. 1. We won't see attacks at all 2. Andy will cut them all into halves. After all there will no riders he's afraid of in the Tour.

 

[Fus087]

Is it official he can ride the Vuelta?

I doubt it, but if he could it would be like unleashing the New Zealand All Blacks World Cup Rugby squad onto the Yorkshire Under 13's local championship.

Nice - and fitting comparison.

 

[theyoungest]

jens_attacks, stange that Horner is only the 4th in your list.

Very interesting if the things will change in the mountains and if they will how it'll happen. I suppose, there're only 2 scenarious actually. 1. We won't see attacks at all 2. Andy will cut them all into halves. After all there will no riders he's afraid of in the Tour.

Wonder how he'll go about that, actually. Usually Andy needs Contador to instigate attacks.

Is it official he can ride the Vuelta?

I doubt it, but if he could it would be like unleashing the New Zealand All Blacks World Cup Rugby squad onto the Yorkshire Under 13's local championship.

entertaining just to see how big the win

Weren't you one of the "Vuelta is a really hard race, and thus Nibali is one of the greats" crowd?

 

[skidmark]

I dunno, I know most people on the forum don't want to hear it, but I think Andy is a class above the rest. Comparing his form from 2009/10 (and even 2008) Tours to last year, he seemed to not be on peak n 2011. And even though the parcours is unliked by many and 'a joke' as far as climbs go, there are still 2 stages (la Toussuire and Bagneres-le-Luchon) that have a bunch of climbs (and although the second isn't a MTF, remember the Colombiere stage in 2009). With his team, he should be able to make ample time on those 2 stages alone to hold his own in the TT. Yeah he only finished 1:33 ahead of Menchov in 2010, but if he was blitzing alone instead of track standing with Contador on the Tourmalet, it would've been 2 minutes more.

I guess we'll see come July, but I think folks are being too hasty to write him off.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Wonder how he'll go about that, actually. Usually Andy needs Contador to instigate attacks.

It's sort of a mixed issue for Andy.

With Contador there and in form, Schleck simply cannot win on this parcours unless Contador actually falls off his bike. However, with Contador there it is more likely that the other superior time triallists get real time put into them in the mountains. Which in turn means that Schleck has an improved chance of beating the likes of Evans, Menchov, Wiggins, etc on GC.

Andy is more likely to win the Tour without Contador, but he's also more likely to have a very bad Tour. Hopefully he'll realise that he has to use the climbs to wallop the guys who will easily beat him in the TTs and we'll get some decent action.

If he has any sense, he would make alliances with any midget climbers who can't TT at all who show up looking for stage wins or the KOM, so as to make sure that the few mountain stages are extra difficult. I'm less than convinced that the terms "Andy Schleck" and "any sense" belong in the same sentence however.

 

[The Hitch]

Wonder how he'll go about that, actually. Usually Andy needs Contador to instigate attacks.


Weren't you one of the "Vuelta is a really hard race, and thus Nibali is one of the greats" crowd?

No, but I do love the Vuelta and Nibali, and the reason The Great One will decimate that race is not because the competition is poor, but because its Contador.

 

[airstream]

Wonder how he'll go about that, actually. Usually Andy needs Contador to instigate attacks.

I see it differently or you think, for instance, Andy wouldn't have dropped everybody on the Madeleine, if there hadn't been Contador?

 

[The Hitch]

I see it differently or you think, for instance, Andy wouldn't have dropped everybody on the Madeleine, if there hadn't been Contador?

Not neccesarily because there was a descent and 10k flat after the Madeline.

But Tourmalet he would have pwned everyone yes.

 

[airstream]

Not neccesarily because there was a descent and 10k flat after the Madeline.

But Tourmalet he would have pwned everyone yes.

Possibly, very possibly. I mean only climbing, not the final results of the stage though. Naturally, a solo from the Madeleine up to the finish line was unlikely to occur on that stage.

 

[Zoncolan]

Wonder how he'll go about that, actually. Usually Andy needs Contador to instigate attacks.

Good old USPS/Disco/RS train. With guys like Klodi, Levi, Horner thining out the group to about 15-20 people and then Frank doing the finishing touches before Andy attacks.
RS certainly has the strength in depth.
Hopefully Evans and Menchov will be on top form come July, as I don't want to see this scenario unfold.

 

[Walkman]

Good old USPS/Disco/RS train. With guys like Klodi, Levi, Horner thining out the group to about 15-20 people and then Frank doing the finishing touches before Andy attacks.
RS certainly has the strength in depth.
Hopefully Evans and Menchov will be on top form come July, as I don't want to see this scenario unfold.

You do know that Levi isn't riding for RS, right?

 

[theyoungest]

I see it differently or you think, for instance, Andy wouldn't have dropped everybody on the Madeleine, if there hadn't been Contador?

He'd have been capable of it, but I get the feeling he needs that Contador rivalry to really get the best out of himself... look at last year's Tour, Contador wasn't as strong, and somehow Schleck wasn't either.

 

[Froome19]

Good old USPS/Disco/RS train. With guys like Klodi, Levi, Horner thining out the group to about 15-20 people and then Frank doing the finishing touches before Andy attacks.
RS certainly has the strength in depth.
Hopefully Evans and Menchov will be on top form come July, as I don't want to see this scenario unfold.

Indeed that was the supposed plan this year and it would have worked out and given andy the yellow jersey if not for the fact that fuglsang, gerdemann etc did not really turn up.
From what evans showed last year and from his previous 2nds I believe he can in fact match Andy on the climbs especially without Contador. Its time for andy to take a step up and start truly destroying other GC contenders on climbs as he has promised if he ever wants to win a Tour for real.

 

[LaFlorecita]

You do know that Levi isn't riding for RS, right?

Somehow a lot of people forget about that.

 

[trevim]

No Contador will massively alter the dynamics of the race. Think it just swung in favour of Evans, Wiggins and Menchov.

I completely agree with this. One less lunatic attacking on the mountains, this can only be good for the GC time trialists. It will be up to Schleck and probably Samu to try and put some damage in the mountains

 

[LaFlorecita]

I completely agree with this. One less lunatic attacking on the mountains, this can only be good for the GC time trialists. It will be up to Schleck and probably Samu to try and put some damage in the mountains

Go SAMU!!!!!

 

[Andre.J]

So far, assuming nobody gets banned, I have as podium contenders:

Contador
Evans
A. Shleck
F. Shleck
Valverde
Van den Broeck
Leipheimer
Wiggins
Menchov
J. Rodriguez...maybe
S. Sanchez...maybe




Anyone else? That's a lot of guys shooting for the podium.

you can remove Contador, F. Schleck, Leipheimer, and Rodriguez.
and Valverde without the drugs wont be the same. Plus the parcours is the worst ever so who really knows!! Maybe nobody on that list will make it.

 

[skidmark]

I say Valverde will avenge his countryman and make the podium.

 

[Zoncolan]

You do know that Levi isn't riding for RS, right?

Yes, I was following Tour de San Luis. I guess a fail for me, right?