Tour De France Contenders - who has a shot?

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May 5, 2011
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jens_attacks said:
looking at how he rides,it looks like a proper tour de france winner of this year's edition.

146. KITTEL Marcel 211 PROJECT 1T4I 23h 27' 03" + 55' 11"
147. WILSON Matthew 48 GREENEDGE CYCLING TEAM 23h 27' 07" + 55' 15"
148. HOWARD Leigh 44 GREENEDGE CYCLING TEAM 23h 27' 10" + 55' 18"
149. SAEZ Adrian 67 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI 23h 28' 11" + 56' 19"
150. WYNANTS Maarten 98 RABOBANK CYCLING TEAM 23h 28' 18" + 56' 26"
151. KASHECHKIN Andrey 85 ASTANA PRO TEAM 23h 31' 22" + 59' 30"

basically every stage in the kittel group.
the signs are very good,still andy did even better than him


Dont worry, he just needs to loose 15 kg to be rihjt up there
 
Mar 9, 2012
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For me, Andy is the big favourite for this years race. Might sound strange because of the TT kms, but thats only forcing him, and his team, into launching their attacks from early out.
Very often, the biggest obstacle for Andy was his brother, telling him when to go, and when not. Bruyneel wont let this happen this year again, so we will see a different Schleck this year.
I understand people criticising Andy for his performances in races apart from april and july, but he's still maturing. Give him two more years and he'll compete more serious throughout the year.

I dont see guys like Sanchez,Valverde or Menchov as real contenders for the final victory. Think it will be between Evans and Schleck once again. I also got my doubts on Wiggins doing good enough in the mountains. Podium yes (maybe;)), victory no.
By the way, Van den Broeck should go very well this year, as Rolland.

My prediction would be:

1.Schleck
2.Evans
3.Van den Broeck
4.Wiggins
5.Leipheimer
 
Feb 15, 2011
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Marco Pantani said:
For me, Andy is the big favourite for this years race. Might sound strange because of the TT kms, but thats only forcing him, and his team, into launching their attacks from early out.
Very often, the biggest obstacle for Andy was his brother, telling him when to go, and when not. Bruyneel wont let this happen this year again, so we will see a different Schleck this year.
I understand people criticising Andy for his performances in races apart from april and july, but he's still maturing. Give him two more years and he'll compete more serious throughout the year.

I dont see guys like Sanchez,Valverde or Menchov as real contenders for the final victory. Think it will be between Evans and Schleck once again. I also got my doubts on Wiggins doing good enough in the mountains. Podium yes (maybe;)), victory no.
By the way, Van den Broeck should go very well this year, as Rolland.

My prediction would be:

1.Schleck
2.Evans
3.Van den Broeck
4.Wiggins
5.Leipheimer

My Top 10:

1. Evans (obvious favorite)
2. Wiggins (beats all climbers in last long TT by 2-3 minutes...
3. Samu (Best TT of the climbers, much better than Schleck)
4. Basso (will have much better prep this year)
5. Schleck (will get slaughtered by the TT)
6. Valverde (will attack alot)
7. Van den Broeck (its been awhile, but his TT is decent)
8. Levi (Will be unable to follow the accelerations of Samu, Val, & Schleck)
9. Menchov (will get dropped at least once)
10. Gesink (expect to lose time in climbs & TTs)

I expect Samu, Valverde, & Schleck to be attacking alot!

But lets be honest, 4 of those guys will probably crash out, so I have a long list of maybe top ten guys:

Janez Bracky, Horner, Taaramae, Coppel (great at TT), Rolland, Jeannsson, Danielson, Le Mevel, Hesjedal, Vandevelde, Uran, Machado, Kruiswijjik, Froome, Cobo, Monfort, Mollema.

These guys have a chance if they don't focus on the Giro, which they most likely will:

Kreuzinger, Nibali, Scarponi, Gadret, Jrod (although the TT could murder him), Fulsang (very outside chance),
 
Jan 22, 2011
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gustienordic said:
My Top 10:

1. Evans (obvious favorite)
2. Wiggins (beats all climbers in last long TT by 2-3 minutes...
3. Samu (Best TT of the climbers, much better than Schleck)
4. Basso (will have much better prep this year)
5. Schleck (will get slaughtered by the TT)
6. Valverde (will attack alot)
7. Van den Broeck (its been awhile, but his TT is decent)
8. Levi (Will be unable to follow the accelerations of Samu, Val, & Schleck)
9. Menchov (will get dropped at least once)
10. Gesink (expect to lose time in climbs & TTs)

I expect Samu, Valverde, & Schleck to be attacking alot!

But lets be honest, 4 of those guys will probably crash out, so I have a long list of maybe top ten guys:

Janez Bracky, Horner, Taaramae, Coppel (great at TT), Rolland, Jeannsson, Danielson, Le Mevel, Hesjedal, Vandevelde, Uran, Machado, Kruiswijjik, Froome, Cobo, Monfort, Mollema.

These guys have a chance if they don't focus on the Giro, which they most likely will:

Kreuzinger, Nibali, Scarponi, Gadret, Jrod (although the TT could murder him), Fulsang (very outside chance),

Isn't Basso doing Giro and Nibbles - TDF??
J-Rod not riding TDF for sure.
Scarponi might actually ride le Tour instead of Giro
 
Feb 15, 2011
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Fetisoff said:
Isn't Basso doing Giro and Nibbles - TDF??
J-Rod not riding TDF for sure.
Scarponi might actually ride le Tour instead of Giro

Well I would rate Basso & Nibles fairly evenly... JRod is for sure not, but Scarponi mentioned something about going back to the Giro this year so he could win it for real this time...
 
Dec 30, 2011
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Fetisoff said:
Isn't Basso doing Giro and Nibbles - TDF??
J-Rod not riding TDF for sure.
Scarponi might actually ride le Tour instead of Giro

Yeh Basso is doing Giro but i think Nibbles is still a bit confused about what to do... He looks currently on too good form to be doing Giro but I think he said he will just see how he feels to see whether he will enter the Giro but he is likely doing the tour, Scarponi meanwhile is just as confused it seems with nearly a 100 hundred conflicting reports from sources as relevant as within his own team, he definitely has an interest in riding le tour, whether it will happen?? I cant imagine Lampre not going to the giro without both their GC men as Cunego is only doing le tour in preparation for worlds etc..
 
Jun 14, 2010
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Fetisoff said:
They are here, for example.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Giro_d'Italia

Maybe it's too hard to change the results after the fact on CQ, maybe it's a statement they are making, who knows.
I guess they kept Valverde's results too if I'm not mistaken

No they havent. they dont have Pelizzoti for example for 2009, think they don't have Di Luca either

Which makes it difficult when using cq to make arguments sometimes.
 
Jan 22, 2011
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The Hitch said:
No they havent. they dont have Pelizzoti for example for 2009, think they don't have Di Luca either

Which makes it difficult when using cq to make arguments sometimes.

Note to self. Check something out, before making a statement.

Hey, BTW, on a completely different topic - do you mind if I PM you a question about Warsaw, the only Polish people I know haven't been to Poland in years, and I'd like an insight so to say.
 

airstream

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Mar 29, 2011
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i cannot predict the accurate balance of forces in tt and give top-10. hopefully the difference between the best climber and the second best one will be as huge as ever, since 1998 at least
 
Aug 5, 2010
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maxmartin said:
who is Turbo diesel?

the name of the poster is very suggestive isn't it? :p tho i disagree with him, way too much time trialling and descending for post 06 basso unfortunately, i can't wait to see him pushing a monstrous pace up the mortirolo and the stelvio tho. that stage may be one for the ages
 
Mar 27, 2011
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gustienordic said:
My Top 10:
2. Wiggins (beats all climbers in last long TT by 2-3 minutes...
4. Basso (will have much better prep this year)

5. Schleck (will get slaughtered by the TT)
6. Valverde (will attack alot)

10. Gesink (expect to lose time in climbs & TTs)

Janez Bracky, Horner, Taaramae, Coppel (great at TT), Rolland, Jeannsson, Danielson, Le Mevel, Hesjedal, Vandevelde, Uran, Machado, Kruiswijjik, Froome, Cobo, Monfort, Mollema.

No Kloden/ F Shleck??? Porte might also have a good TDF as Sky will want him to go well in the ITT's and he needs to TTT Wiggins up the mountains.
Gesink is probably the 3rd best climber out of all those top 10 contenders you listed. He might be hurt by his injury layoff ( i think the TDF will prepare him for the Vuelta ) but he Time-Trialled well at Murcia.
Basso not doing the TDF, no time bonuses for Valverde. I do not know whether in the last ITT Wiggins will take that much time out of Andy as he shall improve/ Wiggins usually gets tired at the end of GCs' ( 2009 ).
 
Jul 2, 2011
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It's all speculation right now, we don't know who will be absent due to illness, injuries... who will line up...

Given the absence of Contador i'd say Wiggins because he will cool down for time an rebuild for the TDF...

Evans won't hurt him in the Mountains, only a very good Schleck could hurt him but will he take enough time for what he will lose in the TT.

So as of today :
1. Wiggins
2. Evans
3. A. Schleck

but like i said it's a big gamble early march.... what if A. Schleck can't start due to ilness, injury that will give a whole other race with other tactics by Radioshack as well
 
May 12, 2010
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Fetisoff said:
They are here, for example.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Giro_d'Italia

Maybe it's too hard to change the results after the fact on CQ, maybe it's a statement they are making, who knows.
I guess they kept Valverde's results too if I'm not mistaken

It is a ton of work changing all the results for Contador in the CQ-database. From what I understand this is the plan: if he doesn't appeal, all his results will be scrapped in the period he is banned, and everyone behind him will move up a place. If he does appeal, his points will be set to 0, but the riders behind him won't move up a spot yet. If he loses his appeal, everyone behind him will move up, if he wins his appeal, his points will be reinstated.
 
Dec 30, 2011
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greenedge said:
No Kloden/ F Shleck??? Porte might also have a good TDF as Sky will want him to go well in the ITT's and he needs to TTT Wiggins up the mountains.
Gesink is probably the 3rd best climber out of all those top 10 contenders you listed. He might be hurt by his injury layoff ( i think the TDF will prepare him for the Vuelta ) but he Time-Trialled well at Murcia.
Basso not doing the TDF, no time bonuses for Valverde. I do not know whether in the last ITT Wiggins will take that much time out of Andy as he shall improve/ Wiggins usually gets tired at the end of GCs' ( 2009 ).
Hopefully both Kloden and F.Schleck will go to the Giro because going to the Tour would be a waste for them, as used as domestiques by bruyneel for A.schleck, as Bruyneel will certainly go in with the idea of one leader and only one, seeing how the Schlecks have failed previously with two.
Porte may have a good tour but Sky will make sure to absolutely blow him on climbs etc, especially seeing how they have made their intentions clear of working in any race they have a slight opportunity to win no matter what.
Gesink will be totally fit by the time of the tour as he is already in good shape with a 5th in the TT in andalucia, and he has got another 5 months, what do you expect him to do? He may be aiming for the vuelta and worlds as well but I expect him to take easier in the first bit of the season and then have a hard second part, but regardless he will definitely be ready for the tour.
Also the poster you quoted said Valverde will attack i cant see that happening seeing from his paris-nice actions, especially as I see Cobo being aggresive for Movistar as he was in the Vuelta where once he realised he was a GC contender he started attacking earlier than the other GC contenders, whilst Valverde will sit back, kind of like Cunego did last year and get a top 10 and possibly a top5 more likely a 6/7/8 though it all matters on how Cobo is doing.
 

airstream

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Mar 29, 2011
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we don't know. possibly, bruyneel hopes to repeat the monstrous epic raid col du romme-colombier with the same actors on one of the pyreneean stages. there's a possibility to occupy the podium entirely! :D
 
Aug 5, 2009
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airstream said:
we don't know. possibly, bruyneel hopes to repeat the monstrous epic raid col du romme-colombier with the same actors on one of the pyreneean stages. there's a possibility to occupy the podium entirely! :D

They will have to do something special to make up for the TT losses. But there are just as many question marks about riders like Menchov and Wiggins and their climbing. I think without Contador some riders will be willing to take more risks and R/Shack has to be aggressive. Could be very interesting race. Evans thinks it could be a harder race to control and I think he's right.
 
Jun 14, 2010
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Parrulo said:
the name of the poster is very suggestive isn't it? :p tho i disagree with him, way too much time trialling and descending for post 06 basso unfortunately, i can't wait to see him pushing a monstrous pace up the mortirolo and the stelvio tho. that stage may be one for the ages

I think hes talking about Nibali actually. The poster knows Basso is doing the Giro.
 

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