Tour de France: Prologue - Rotterdam - 8.9km

[Barrus]

OK, lots of people are saying they don't want to pick Spartacus because he's the obvious choice, here's a variation of the game we can discuss.

If CN is accurate in their reporting, the final 3 riders on Saturday are: LA, FC and AC. Not only that, but they also give start times as only being 1 minute apart. At the final Tour de Suisse TT, LA was almost 1 minute behind Fabian over almost 27K, approximately 3 times longer than the Tour prologue. Now, I don't think Fabian can catch Lance in less than 10K giving a minute, but how close will he come?

random guess: half a minute

 

[wiry pyruvity]

Yup, it looked like that last year.

ETA: the calf that is

varicose veins...he must get some serious burn from such poor veinous drainage....

 

[luckyboy]

At least they're not as bad as Sean Yates'

Anyway, Cancellara about 25 seconds up on Lance I think.

 

[Thee_chisa]

can't see lance in the top 5 actually. wiggins maybe do well as he was a bit of a specialist over the 4k but i think fabian to win too. should be interesting!

 

[Delicato]

Publicus's comment on Armstrong going faster than Alberto in the prologue amazed me

Remember, miracles don't happen in cycling. That is what apparently JB believes in.

 

[La Vie Claire]

Wigans only b/c he's opting to start early before the rain hits. Favorites should all start together so weather is less of a factor. Can't imagine the yellow jersey opting to start anywhere but last in the prologue. Yet the 4th place finisher is starting way before everybody else. But a W is a W I guess. A total Wigans move.

Publicus's comment on Armstrong going faster than Alberto in the prologue amazed me

Remember, miracles don't happen in cycling. That is what apparently JB believes in.

Sure, miracles do happen. It's a miracle that JB and LA haven't been banned for doping all these years.

 

[The Hitch]

View Post
OK, lots of people are saying they don't want to pick Spartacus because he's the obvious choice, here's a variation of the game we can discuss.

If CN is accurate in their reporting, the final 3 riders on Saturday are: LA, FC and AC. Not only that, but they also give start times as only being 1 minute apart. At the final Tour de Suisse TT, LA was almost 1 minute behind Fabian over almost 27K, approximately 3 times longer than the Tour prologue. Now, I don't think Fabian can catch Lance in less than 10K giving a minute, but how close will he come?

Ah so saxo have taken their second last placing won last year b a schleck and given it to cancellara.

If its raining cancellara can catch lance. But unlikely.
I think it will be like gilbert at lbl. He will get within 20 seconds and then lose 10 finishing 30 ahead of lance overall.

 

[Publicus]

Publicus's comment on Armstrong going faster than Alberto in the prologue amazed me

Remember, miracles don't happen in cycling. That is what apparently JB believes in.

It's a function of the course more than anything.

 

[thoni66]

Vandevelde and Wiggins start sooner than the rest of leaders, , also other Sky and Garmin strong TT men (Boasson, Zabriskie...) do the same thing. It seems both teams are aware about the forecast of strong rain tomorrow beginning at 17h and have decided to make these changes.....

 

[jmspinto]

.

It will depend on the weather, but I do believe that Brent Bookwalter and Lars Boom at least will have something to say. Anyway, if the weather is equal to everyone, Cancellara will surely do it (without any hidden electrical motor.ha ha ha).

 

[The Hitch]

i see contador is showing of his number - 1.

This is the first time he is actually going to wear that number in a gt. Despite having won 4.

 

[blaxland]

As others have posted Tony Martin should finish top 3,I think this is possible having someone like B.Brookwater in front like a carrot will be to his advantage....Wiggans will also finish top 3?

 

[ingsve]

I just took a look at what riders are competing in the young riders competition this year to figure out who will wear white after tomorrows prologue.

The main contenders seem to be EBH, Tony Martin, Lars Boom, Roman Kreuziger and Geraint Thomas with a few outsiders in the likes of Robert Gesink, Konovalovas, Fuglsang and Andy Schleck. There might be one or two others among the riders I don't know so well but I'd be surprised if the white jersey wasn't on either of first five I mentioned.

 

[auscyclefan94]

He either does very well or does extremely ****

It's all or nothing with Boom, there is no way in between

I am expecting a bit of Boom Boom Pow tonight.

As others have posted Tony Martin should finish top 3,I think this is possible having someone like B.Brookwater in front like a carrot will be to his advantage....Wiggans will also finish top 3?

Hmmmm, Lance and Levi tried to go early in the prologue last year abd it did not work out for them tbh. Conditions may change but later starters will have advice from earlier starters and they already have the times in front of them so they know the ride they have to do. I personally don't see it paying off for the early riders and it could actually backfire. If I was wiggins I would not take that risk as if it is no difference he could have himself 20 seconds behind on GC already which is significant.

It is a power time trial as riders have said you are always pedalling so I expect FC to own and AC to be not as high as usual because he uses his acceleration out of the corners to his advantage.

 

[ferryman]

As others have posted Tony Martin should finish top 3,I think this is possible having someone like B.Brookwater in front like a carrot will be to his advantage....Wiggans will also finish top 3?

Tony martin for me by a way over the GC guys. Fabio close if not if not in front. The skinny Lux boys will lose out big. Contador top 5. Lance 20-30. Wiggins a top 10.

All a BIB guess

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

Booooooom.
Wiggo
Martin
Canc.

 

[couchbiker]

Well, I wouldn't dismiss Ryder. Definitely in the top twenty.

 

[auscyclefan94]

There may be some significant time gaps from the light climbers (Schlecks,Gesink) to the more all round gc contenders (Wiggins, Evans, Contador) because it is so flat and the heavier guys will be able to power along this course better than the lighter guys.

Cancellara will win this easy and will beat Lance by 35 secs.

Seriously though just imagine if Lance was caught by Fabian!

 

[Sasquatch]

1. Contador
2. Cancellara
3. Martin
4. Thomas
5. Boasson-Hagen

It wouldn't surprise me if Contador aims to get in yellow today. Usually a GC contender doesn't want to get in yellow but he doesn't have to defend it tomorrow. Astana won't need to be on the front for stage one. They can let a non threatening break go out and leave it up to the sprinters teams to control.

If he has the jersey after stage one, he'll lose it after stage two as Astana won't do any work on that stage.

Contador will aim to get as much time as he can in case he loses time on stage three. He won't be sitting back tonight.

 

[Publicus]

There may be some significant time gaps from the light climbers (Schlecks,Gesink) to the more all round gc contenders (Wiggins, Evans, Contador) because it is so flat and the heavier guys will be able to power along this course better than the lighter guys.

Cancellara will win this easy and will beat Lance by 35 secs.

Seriously though just imagine if Lance was caught by Fabian!

Both Gesink (68) and the Schlecks (68) outweigh Contador by several kilograms. AC is only 61 kg.

 

[benpounder]

i see contador is showing of his number - 1.

This is the first time he is actually going to wear that number in a gt. Despite having won 4.

Good point! The past winners have always made statements at the beginning of the Tour, subtle or blunt. I still pick Cancellara for the win (nothing does a team - or a rider - looking for new sponsorship better than several days in yellow).

Contador in second.
Levi and Dave Z blow away their team leaders.
Brajkovic in third.
Mick Rodgers and Roman Kreuziger show well.
Tony Martin in fourth... Ivan Basso in eigth.

 

[Iker_Baqueiro]

Seriously though just imagine if Lance was caught by Fabian!

Yeah, just like he was caught by Miguel Indurain some years ago.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Both Gesink (68) and the Schlecks (68) outweigh Contador by several kilograms. AC is only 61 kg.

Yes, look at their heights and BMI

Gesink - 187cm 19.4
A Schleck - 186cm 19.7
Contador - 176cm 20.0

I do admit that Contador was the best example for that as the course is not the best for him as it is a power tt and contador is better with a tighter course with climbs but I don't think gesink and A schleck will go very well at all in this tt.
I will chuck in Evans' weight atm and his BMI is 21.8. Personally he will definetly go better than RG and AS and maybe Conti tonight because he is a bit more powerful on that flat.

 

[auscyclefan94]

My altered top 5 if conditions are relatively similar for all.
1. Cancellara
2. Kloden
3. Armstrong
4. Martin
5. Hincapie

Top 5 if conditions are better for early starters
1. Wiggins
2. martin
3. Cancellara
4. Leipheimer
5. Bookwalter (I think he will surprise a few people tonight)

EDIT: Bookwalter has said that the wind will most likely change throughout the race but the dry wet factor will not be a factor.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I actually heard Albeerto speak english on versus. He has a funny accent but he was not too bad.

Versus prologue preview http://www.versus.com/cycling/videos/2010-prologue-preview/in-stream/sport/cycling/sort/most-recent/i/5/

The English speaking nations will have a day out tonight. It feels like the night before christmas. I just want this thing to begin.