The round up as I see it:
The first week has more or less destryod the rest of the race. So many favorites have crashed and have either abandoned, lost loads of time or are suffering from crash-related injuries. Here are the ones from the top of my head:
Brajkovic: Crashed and abandoned
Wiggins: Crashed and abandoned
Horner: Crashed and abandoned
Vino: Crashed and abandoned
VdB: Crashed and abandoned
Levi: Crashed and lots loads of time (out of the GC)
Gesink: Crashed, lost loads of time and is badly injured.
Contador: Crashed, lost some time but most importantly hurt his knee twice.
Sanches: lost some time due to being caught behind a crash
EDIT: Klöden: Crashed and injured
So the only real favorites who go into the 2.nd week without any crash-related problems are the Schlecks, Evans and Basso.
Sanchez isnt hurt by crashes either but has lost significant time. Basso lost alot of time on the TTT and I dont really see him beating the Schlecks in the mountaisn and he wont regain it in the TT, as he sucks as bad as the Schlecks in TTs. So for me its down to Evans vs the Schlecks, unless Contadors knee problems disappear, but knee problems usually need you to rest for a longer period of time, so I am quite pessimistic about that.
So go Evans! You are my last hope.
PS: maybe Sanchez is still game. Especially if he can attack on the 2 stages that finish with a decent (if they are tecnically difficul enough). But he is pretty far behind on the gc, so it will be tough.