Tour de France Stage 7: Tournus - Station des Rousses 165.5km

[hrotha]

Just curious as to what is the basis for this, especially considering LA's tour de suisse performance.

LA's TdS performance didn't show much. He couldn't climb with the best, he couldn't TT with the best and still ended up 2nd somehow. A better reason to consider him a contender, no matter how much it hurts, is his 3rd place last year.

 

[Publicus]

Just curious as to what is the basis for this, especially considering LA's tour de suisse performance.

I'm really curious why everyone seems to be overstating his Tour de Suisse performance. He didn't look great climbing (gapped on the Queen stage, but salvaged a top 10 on the downhill); was something like 27th at the top of the climb of the prologue/opening TT (finished 44th, but didn't push on the downhill portion because of the rain); was 23rd at the top of the long drag to the top of the final TT. He finished 1'09" down and 11th in that TT (gained time on the downhill). But he only beat Frank Schleck by 5 seconds!

He finished 2nd because the 6 other riders ahead of him entering the final TT were terrible time trialist (or produced terrible TTs save Frank Schleck).

Gesink (from 1st to 5th (lost 2'19" (40th))
Uran (from 2nd to 7th (lost 1'56" (28th))
Morabito (from 3rd to 4th (lost 1'39" (21st))
F. Schleck (from 4th to 1st) (lost 1'14" (13th))
J. Rod (from 5th to 9th) (lost 2'19" (41st))
Matteo Carrara (from 6th to 15th) (lost 2'55 (59th))

So I'm not dogging his performance, because this is what stages are all about (being the fastest through the course). But I just don't understand why everyone thinks his form was so great. It wasn't bad, but it wasn't the kind of performance to put fear in the hearts of competitors (IMO).

His power is good (but then it was good last year (see the TTT--he was taking monster pulls)). His climbing continues to be his achilles heel in my opinion (see where he regained time at the Tour de Suisse). And he's not raced for the win on a MTF since . . . Verbier.

So again, what is the basis for being confident in his climbing ability since he hasn't shown it all year? (Serious question)

 

[Publicus]

I've posted similar on another thread but if I was Johan/Lance I would be using Jani as a Joker both Saturday and Sunday. Test legs, get up the road if possible. Make Astana and Saxo work.

Astana and Saxo won't be drawn out by him, he's too far down at this point to merit wasting energy. Now Basso, Menchov, Wiggins, Samu and Sastre may be moved to respond, but AC has nothing to fear from Jani.

 

[ferryman]

Astana and Saxo won't be drawn out by him, he's too far down at this point to merit wasting energy. Now Basso, Menchov, Wiggins, Samu and Sastre may be moved to respond, but AC has nothing to fear from Jani.

Sorry but that is exactly why I am saying play him as a Joker.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

So again, what is the basis for being confident in his climbing ability since he hasn't shown it all year? (Serious question)

I'm surmising he was relatively clean at the TdS, saving the bags for France, or whatever. (sorry for the indiscretion, but no way I could answer that question without broaching on the Clinic topic).

Edit: There is also his impressive prologue performance. I know there was no climbing in that, but it was a show of sustained power output never-the-less.

 

[Publicus]

Sorry but that is exactly why I am saying play him as a Joker.

You said play him to make Astana and Saxo work, but neither AC or AS are concerned with him. They wouldn't work. They'd let Liquigas, Cervelo or Euskatel pull him back. So I'm not sure what your point really is...

 

[Publicus]

I'm surmising he was relatively clean at the TdS, saving the bags for France, or whatever. (sorry for the indiscretion, but no way I could answer that question without broaching on the Clinic topic).

Edit: There is also his impressive prologue performance. I know there was no climbing in that, but it was a show of sustained power output never-the-less.

Fair enough, though that assumption would probably apply to all of the GC hopefuls. And it was an impressive prologue performance. I don't know if that translates into superior climbing though. He showed good power in the Tour de Suisse as I noted earlier. His climbing form has been non-existent.

 

[unsheath]

Breakaway from Teams with non GC.

Kolobnev, Ivanov, Taaramae, Gadret

 

[SpartacusRox]

I think RS will chase down any break-a-way and LA will be launched but will not be able to shake AC or AS. These guys should be able to gain some time on Cadel, Vino and others. If anything, AC and AS will drop LA too who then would lose some more time to them.

I don't think the favourites will do much at all except maybe test each other out. None of them has a need to this early on and the climbs are not hard enough for guys to make significant gains compared with the effort it will cost them. Look for someone like Geisink to win tomorrow.

 

[SpartacusRox]

I'm really curious why everyone seems to be overstating his Tour de Suisse performance. He didn't look great climbing (gapped on the Queen stage, but salvaged a top 10 on the downhill); was something like 27th at the top of the climb of the prologue/opening TT (finished 44th, but didn't push on the downhill portion because of the rain); was 23rd at the top of the long drag to the top of the final TT. He finished 1'09" down and 11th in that TT (gained time on the downhill). But he only beat Frank Schleck by 5 seconds!

He finished 2nd because the 6 other riders ahead of him entering the final TT were terrible time trialist (or produced terrible TTs save Frank Schleck).

Gesink (from 1st to 5th (lost 2'19" (40th))
Uran (from 2nd to 7th (lost 1'56" (28th))
Morabito (from 3rd to 4th (lost 1'39" (21st))
F. Schleck (from 4th to 1st) (lost 1'14" (13th))
J. Rod (from 5th to 9th) (lost 2'19" (41st))
Matteo Carrara (from 6th to 15th) (lost 2'55 (59th))

So I'm not dogging his performance, because this is what stages are all about (being the fastest through the course). But I just don't understand why everyone thinks his form was so great. It wasn't bad, but it wasn't the kind of performance to put fear in the hearts of competitors (IMO).

His power is good (but then it was good last year (see the TTT--he was taking monster pulls)). His climbing continues to be his achilles heel in my opinion (see where he regained time at the Tour de Suisse). And he's not raced for the win on a MTF since . . . Verbier.

So again, what is the basis for being confident in his climbing ability since he hasn't shown it all year? (Serious question)

Serious answer...I think his form is building but it won't become apparent till the Pyrenees if he has what it takes to keep up. I think there will just be sparring in the Alps between the main contenders.

Just taking the line you raise though. what basis is there for expecting Andy to be up there based on his early season form?? he has been pretty shocking, only showing glimpses of form in the TdS. With the exception of AC none of the other GC wannabes have showed anymore form than Lance. The two exceptions are Basso and Cadel for whom fatigue may be a factor after the Giro.

It amuses me that people go on about Lance's form but what have the likes of Menchov, Wiggins and Sastre shown?? far less than LA I would suggest up to now.

 

[SpartacusRox]

Here's the final KM:

It's not that selective, but I think it will result in Evans moving into yellow (unless Geraint Thomas is a better climber than I realize). I know Fabian can probably get over these mountains, but I don't know why Saxo would want to have to control the peloton on Sunday. Frankly give it to BMC or Sky, neither of which have a strong mountain team, and reap the benefits.

I agree entirely, I don't think any of the main contenders will particularly want yellow just now, certainly not AC though he may look to make up a bit of time on Cadel if he gets the chance.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

I agree entirely, I don't think any of the main contenders will particularly want yellow just now, certainly not AC though he may look to make up a bit of time on Cadel if he gets the chance.

Wanting yellow is one thing, wanting time is another.

LA needs to get time on AC any chance he can. His fortunes might be better on these gradual gradients than on the really steep Pyrenees stuff. Why not try to turn on the RS gas say 10 km from the finish and give it a go? Maybe nothing will come of it, but it might be worth a try. Wouldn't be surprised if they try something.

"My, they are just flying. Oh! AlbertTOH CantoDOR appears to be in a spot of bother and there goes the man from Texas!"

 

[SpartacusRox]

Guess the CN reporter doesn't rate Cadel as a genuine GC contender>>>??

"Defending champion Alberto Contador, together with his Astana teammate and super-domestique Alexandre Vinokourov, sits comfortably at 31 seconds behind Saxo Bank's true leader, Andy Schleck. The remainder of his rivals, including RadioShack's Lance Armstrong, have already lost time on the Spaniard, so they should be aiming to attack."

 

[blaxland]

For the stage win riders like M.LLoyd or C.Le Mevel would be my picks.Dont think anything will change at the top of GC Saxo to strong to let the yellow slip from their grasp...Cancellara will finish in the top 10 of stage....Cadel will finish top3.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Not so much a day where one could gain time, as much as one where someone could lose time.

 

[hfer07]

I think someone like Luis Leon Sanchez or Roche will win this one.

and Cunego, Ballan, Samu Sanchez, even Serge Pauwles or Simon Gerrans... but if Saxo is eager to keep Fabian in yellow- I doubt the above mentioned will succeed....

 

[Ryaguas]

Who is with: Taaramae in a breakaway looking for the KOM jersey and with Il Principe Cunego taking the stage victory??? come on ppl! haha

 

[auscyclefan94]

It's CUDDLES Time!!!!!

Mckenzie said that hushovd and Ciolek could make it over these climbs.

 

[Ferminal]

There's way too much climbing in the day for a sprinter other than Oscar to hang on. Even though the final climb is nothing more than a false flat, there wont be genuine bunch sprinters finishing with the GC guys. Cancellara could easily hold yellow if that's what Saxo want. Although a strong team at the bottom (hardest part) of the finale could try and burn him off.

If Saxo reel the break in then we will see some opportunists going up towards the finish. Tomorrow we see which teams are going to be supportive in the high mountains.

 

[goggalor]

I don't know, Thor is hardly a (pure) sprinter anymore. He's barely done any sprint training this season, what with his collarbone breaking almost immediately after the classics. I think him (and other semi-fast finishers) being there or not is entirely up to the GC guys.

EBH to win from the break.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Not so much a day where one could gain time, as much as one where someone could lose time.

Yep. I think that's absolutely right.

 

[Publicus]

Serious answer...I think his form is building but it won't become apparent till the Pyrenees if he has what it takes to keep up. I think there will just be sparring in the Alps between the main contenders.

Just taking the line you raise though. what basis is there for expecting Andy to be up there based on his early season form?? he has been pretty shocking, only showing glimpses of form in the TdS. With the exception of AC none of the other GC wannabes have showed anymore form than Lance. The two exceptions are Basso and Cadel for whom fatigue may be a factor after the Giro.

It amuses me that people go on about Lance's form but what have the likes of Menchov, Wiggins and Sastre shown?? far less than LA I would suggest up to now.

I think the same analysis can be performed on any of the riders. I think Andy is not as strong as he was last year. Menchov is harder to assess because he has shown some promise. Sastre I'm not sold on at all. I think he is here only for his sponsors. As for Basso, I think he is pretty strong, but he may have left too much on the roads of Italy.

I addressed Armstrong because he was the topic of discussion.

 

[Red Lobster]

Freire. Please.

 

[auscyclefan94]

No way any of the sprinters will make the finish of these climbs.

3x cat 2
2x cat 3
1x cat 4

Way too hard. Freire would be a very outside chance.

 

[myrideissteelerthanyours]

Its unlikely we will see a gc shakeup because last climb up Côte de Lamoura (14 km, avg grade 5%) isnt selective and the favorites aren't in a desperate situation yet. That said, my prediction is for liquigas to show that they are for real tomorrow in the rain by being the force that animates the 3 cat 2 climbs in the second half of the stage. Jurgen Van Der Broeck for the stage win when he's let up the road by the field.