Tour de France Top 15

[Gigs_98]

1.) Froome
2.) Quintana
3.) Contador
4.) Aru
5.) Pinot
6.) TJVG
7.) Bardet
8.) Nibali
9.) Mollema
10.) Gesink
11.) Porte
12.) Rolland
13.) Rodriguez
14.) Talansky
15.) Kelderman

DNF Daniel Martin

Honestly no idea about the first 3 places. I put Froome on 1st place because he has always been extremely strong in the tour and we've never really seen anyone beating him there in a real battle (2012 doesn't count). Quintana 2nd because after the Route de Sud, I can neither say if he is in a good nor in a very bad shape because the competition is pretty bad. And Contador on 3rd place because I hope that he wins and I'm a big pessimist.

Last year Quintana definitely beat Froome. Quintana just lost too much time due to crosswinds in 1st week.

Do you also have access to a parallel universe where my favourite athletes wins everything? Please let me know.

You mean where Kruijswijk won the giro

 

[LaFlorecita]

Sad to see that only blackmamba's sockpuppet believes in Alberto
I must admit that I also don't see him as the favorite, Quintana and Froome are bigger favorites, Quintana based on the last few TDFs and Froome based also on his performance in Dauphiné. But I still have hope Alberto can pull it off. I'll be sad anyway if he doesn't win.
This is my attempt at a top 15:
1. Contador
2. Froome
3. Quintana
4. Aru
5. Pinot
6. Van Garderen
7. Bardet
8. Porte
9. Meintjes
10. Barguil
11. Mollema
12. Pantano
13. Jeannesson
14. Nibali
15. Kelderman

Also, it seems likely that at least 2 or 3 out of this list will crash out/get ill/lose major time because of a crash (I've already eliminated Talansky and Dan Martin ), I also have a feeling we will lose at least 1 major contender to a crash but I hope I am wrong.

 

[AlexNYC]

No, Froome beat Quintana.
NQ never came close. Froome's odds of winning never dipped below 50% and in the final week never below 90%. Was fully in control the whole way through. Quintana took back some time once the race was already over.

In Alpe d'Huez, Froome was saved by Porte and Poels being able to pace him back to Quintana a few times. All it would have taken for him to lose the race right there and then would've been for either of these two to falter once. It didn't happen in the end, but it seems clear that the race was not already over even in the Tour's last climb.

 

[Red Rick]

The race was over once Nibali attacked on the Glandon the stage before and Quintana sat in the group and watched him take off.

 

[AlexNYC]

Re:

The race was over once Nibali attacked on the Glandon the stage before and Quintana sat in the group and watched him take off.

Even if you think it was a mistake that Nairo didn't follow Nibali, the race was not over yet.

 

[RattaKuningas]

1.) Froome
2.) Quintana
3.) Contador
4.) Aru
5.) Pinot
6.) TJVG
7.) Bardet
8.) Nibali
9.) Mollema
10.) Gesink
11.) Porte
12.) Rolland
13.) Rodriguez
14.) Talansky
15.) Kelderman

DNF Daniel Martin

Honestly no idea about the first 3 places. I put Froome on 1st place because he has always been extremely strong in the tour and we've never really seen anyone beating him there in a real battle (2012 doesn't count). Quintana 2nd because after the Route de Sud, I can neither say if he is in a good nor in a very bad shape because the competition is pretty bad. And Contador on 3rd place because I hope that he wins and I'm a big pessimist.

Last year Quintana definitely beat Froome. Quintana just lost too much time due to crosswinds in 1st week.

Do you also have access to a parallel universe where my favourite athletes wins everything? Please let me know.

People obviously have different opinions when it comes to sport, but to me it seemed that Quintana clearly beat Froome in Alpe d'Huez stage. Obviously Froome won overally but it clearly wasnt as dominant as his 1st victory.
Btw, I'm Contador fan.

 

[Brullnux]

Froome's first victory was ridiculously good though. He's never gonna top that IMO

 

[Oliwright]

No, Froome beat Quintana.
NQ never came close. Froome's odds of winning never dipped below 50% and in the final week never below 90%. Was fully in control the whole way through. Quintana took back some time once the race was already over.

In Alpe d'Huez, Froome was saved by Porte and Poels being able to pace him back to Quintana a few times. All it would have taken for him to lose the race right there and then would've been for either of these two to falter once. It didn't happen in the end, but it seems clear that the race was not already over even in the Tour's last climb.

The race would had been over stage 2 if we factor a race without teams. Movistar raced for 60km to only loose 2 mins for Quintana. Your not going to win this argument. Froome was clearly the best GC rider at the race.

 

[Oliwright]

Re:

Froome's first victory was ridiculously good though. He's never gonna top that IMO

Agreed Sky's sports science was far more advanced than other teams at that point, now everyone goes to Teide.
Also competition in 2013 was very poor compared to 2015. But i think it's worth remembering Froome has improved since then it's just less evident.

 

[AlexNYC]

The race would had been over stage 2 if we factor a race without teams. Movistar raced for 60km to only loose 2 mins for Quintana. Your not going to win this argument. Froome was clearly the best GC rider at the race.

Is that why you joined this forum, to win arguments? That must be extremely frustrating.

If we factor a race without teams, an interesting thought experiment, do you believe for a second that Froome would have won that Tour?

In any case, my post doesn't have anything to do with who would have won in a world without teams, so your post above reads like a red herring.

 

[Pantani_lives]

1. Christopher Froome: It might be a boring Tour with Froome and the Chattanoogoo Choo Choo completely dominating.
2. Nairo Quintana: He looks relaxed and in good shape. If he doesn't lose much on the flat he might be a threat for yellow in the mountain stages of the final week.
3. Alberto Contador: He still wants to, but I'm not sure if he still can. He will be the most agressive of the top three favorites, but will his attacks actually amount to something?
4. Fabio Aru: He has been hiding himself, but he'll probably be there. I don't expect him to win this Tour, but a good performance would mean that he's a potential future winner.
5. Richie Porte: On his good days he's among the best climbers, and the MTT suits him. The question is whether he can avoid that one really bad day for once.
6. Thibaut Pinot: He has an attractive style, takes initiative. I just put him one level below the absolute top climbers; he's the best of the rest.
7. Romain Bardet: He'll probably end up riding against Pinot for first Frenchman. A podium place seems a bit high for him, though not impossible.
8. Tejay Van Garderen: It's hard to estimate his form after TdS. He's not sure of the leadership in his team, but normally he'll finish somewhere between 4th and 8th without being noticed.
9. Vincenzo Nibali: I don't really see him sacrificing himself for Aru, but I also don't see him winning this Tour. Unpredictable factor.
10. Warren Barguil: I spite of his weak time trial he showed good climbing form in TdS, so he has a shot at a top ten place and the white jersey.
11. Andrew Talansky: He had a lot of bad luck in the past two years, but he seems to be back on track.
12. Bauke Mollema: You won't ever notice him, but he'll finish between 6th and 12th.
13. Daniel Martin: He might just go for a stage win, but he looked really good in the Dauphiné, and one doesn't exclude the other.
14. Sergio Henao: There are usually two Sky riders in the top 20, and Henao looks stronger than Thomas and Landa at the moment. This team could have six riders in the top 20 if it wanted to.
15. Adam Yates: He's the second candidate for white, so he'll probably focus on the GC.

Honorable mentions:
*Robert Gesink: I would have put him in the top 10, but after his crash it's very doubtful whether he'll even start.
*Alejandro Valverde: He'll be tired after an already great season. After making the podium in last year's Tour and this year's Giro he might focus on a stage win and maybe even work for Quintana.
*Pierre Rolland: I think he'll focus on the polka dot jersey and a stage win.
*Geraint Thomas: I'm just wondering what would happen if Froome crashed out in the first week.
*Wilco Kelderman: He looked strong for a few days in Suisse, but what happened afterwards won't boost his confidence.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

The race was over once Nibali attacked on the Glandon the stage before and Quintana sat in the group and watched him take off.

if riders could predict the future, they would've never made mistakes in situations like that

 

[lenric]

It's always fun to speculate this kind of stuff.
My 15 cents:

1 - Froome.
2 - Contador.
3 - Quintana (because of the absence of balls to attack early).
4 - Nibali.
5 - Porte.
6 - Aru.
7 - Bardet.
8 - Pinot.
9 - Martin.
10 - Mollema.
11 - Rolland.
12 - Landa.
13 - Barguil.
14 - Yates.
15 - Talansky.

From 11th to 15th is kind of arbitrary, but other than those, I believe Nibali won't sacrifice himself for Aru, while wanting to prove he can be better than Contador in a pseudo-double attempt.
This top 15 was made on the assumption of none from the top riders crash (apart from TJVG, who flops every time).

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Let's try again this year:

I think it will be:

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Contador
4. Aru
5. Porte
6. Pinot
7. Nibali
8. TJVG
9. Bardet
10. Mollema
11. Rolland
12. Talansky
13. Barguil
14. Martin
15. Kelderman

However, one of the top 3 will crash out for sure. Random.org says it's number 3, so Contador is out. Then we'll probably have two more of these guys to drop out. Random.org says 15 Kelderman - which is probably very likely - and 6 Pinot.

It's likely that a few riders will lose time due to crosswinds - bye bye number 11 and 12, Rolland and Talansky - and probably two riders will blow up/get sick etc. - Random.org says that's number 2 and 13 - Quintana and Barguil.

Then we have our list:

1. Froome
2. Aru
3. Porte
4. Nibali
5. TJVG
6. Bardet
7. Mollema
8. Martin

Now we need to add 7 more. Let's ask Random.org to pick 7 random riders from the 50 most likely to win according to Bet365: Rui Costa, Schleck, Gesink, Frank, Yates, Vuillermoz and Sepulveda

Then our final top 15 is:

1. Froome
2. Aru
3. Porte
4. Nibali
5. TJVG
6. Bardet
7. Mollema
8. Martin
9. Rui Costa
10. Schleck
11. Gesink
12. Frank
13. Yates
14. Vuillermoz
15. Sepulveda

 

[52520Andrew]

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Contador
4. Pinot
5. Aru
6. Bardet
7. TJVG
8. Landa
9. Mollema
10. Rolland
11. Barguil
12. Talansky
13. Nibali
14. Rodriguez
15. Geraint Thomas

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

However, one of the top 3 will crash out for sure. Random.org says it's number 3, so Contador is out. Then we'll probably have two more of these guys to drop out. Random.org says 15 Kelderman - which is probably very likely - and 6 Pinot.

It's likely that a few riders will lose time due to crosswinds - bye bye number 11 and 12, Rolland and Talansky - and probably two riders will blow up/get sick etc. - Random.org says that's number 2 and 13 - Quintana and Barguil.

Now we need to add 7 more. Let's ask Random.org to pick 7 random riders from the 50 most likely to win according to Bet365: Rui Costa, Schleck, Gesink, Frank, Yates, Vuillermoz and Sepulveda

Then our final top 15 is:

1. Froome
2. Aru
3. Porte
4. Nibali
5. TJVG
6. Bardet
7. Mollema
8. Martin
9. Rui Costa
10. Schleck
11. Gesink
12. Frank
13. Yates
14. Vuillermoz
15. Sepulveda

Unfortunately that scenario is quite realistic: something happens to Quintana and Contador, leaving no battle for yellow. That's how the Tour usually goes.

According to my use of random.org No. 3, 4, 5, 6 and 9 will drop out, which leaves the following top 10 for me:
1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Bardet
4. Van Garderen
5. Barguil
6. Talansky
7. Mollema
8. D. Martin
9. Henao
10. Yates

Bardet would be a national hero. This top 10 looks plausible to me, with Van Garderen and Mollema moving up to 4 and 7 by just following.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

However, one of the top 3 will crash out for sure. Random.org says it's number 3, so Contador is out. Then we'll probably have two more of these guys to drop out. Random.org says 15 Kelderman - which is probably very likely - and 6 Pinot.

It's likely that a few riders will lose time due to crosswinds - bye bye number 11 and 12, Rolland and Talansky - and probably two riders will blow up/get sick etc. - Random.org says that's number 2 and 13 - Quintana and Barguil.

Now we need to add 7 more. Let's ask Random.org to pick 7 random riders from the 50 most likely to win according to Bet365: Rui Costa, Schleck, Gesink, Frank, Yates, Vuillermoz and Sepulveda

Then our final top 15 is:

1. Froome
2. Aru
3. Porte
4. Nibali
5. TJVG
6. Bardet
7. Mollema
8. Martin
9. Rui Costa
10. Schleck
11. Gesink
12. Frank
13. Yates
14. Vuillermoz
15. Sepulveda

Unfortunately that scenario is quite realistic: something happens to Quintana and Contador, leaving no battle for yellow. That's how the Tour usually goes.

According to my use of random.org No. 3, 4, 5, 6 and 9 will drop out, which leaves the following top 10 for me:
1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Bardet
4. Van Garderen
5. Barguil
6. Talansky
7. Mollema
8. D. Martin
9. Henao
10. Yates

Bardet would be a national hero. This top 10 looks plausible to me, with Van Garderen and Mollema moving up to 4 and 7 by just following.

Normally I would not think of Sergio Henao as a GT rider, but the steeper and shorter nature of the climbs this year could really suit him.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

Starting with a list of riders that you think corresponds to their strength and thus their expected rank and randomly dropping some of them, replacing them with weaker riders increases the expected discrepancy between your prediction and the eventual result.

But of course, in the game that is forum bragging rights, predicting Froome, Quintana Contador earns no plaudits even if it turns out to be true, whereas predicting Quintana, Porte, Nibali would make you Nostradamus for life.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

Normally I would not think of Sergio Henao as a GT rider, but the steeper and shorter nature of the climbs this year could really suit him.

He might move up if he's always the last man to stay with Froome. I always put a few helpers from the strongest team(s) in my top 20. Henao, Thomas or Landa will probably make the top 20; it's just hard to say who of those three. If something happens to Froome one of them might really go for the GC.

Starting with a list of riders that you think corresponds to their strength and thus their expected rank and randomly dropping some of them, replacing them with weaker riders increases the expected discrepancy between your prediction and the eventual result.

But of course, in the game that is forum bragging rights, predicting Froome, Quintana Contador earns no plaudits even if it turns out to be true, whereas predicting Quintana, Porte, Nibali would make you Nostradamus for life.

You're completely right. I remember once throwing out Museeuw for the spring classics. Of course he won Paris-Roubaix, and I was the only one who didn't have him. :redface: Trying to predict surprises is bound to go wrong.

 

[RedheadDane]

1. The guy who wins
2. The guy who places second
3. The guy who places third
4. The guy who Places fourth
5. The guy who places fifth
6. The guy who places sixth
7. The guy who places seventh
8. The guy who places eighth
9. The guy who places ninth
10. The guy who places tenth
11. The guy who places eleventh
12. The guy who places twelfth
13. The guy who places thirteenth
14. The guy who places fourtenth
15. The guy who places fifteenth
...
146. Lanterne Rouge.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Starting with a list of riders that you think corresponds to their strength and thus their expected rank and randomly dropping some of them, replacing them with weaker riders increases the expected discrepancy between your prediction and the eventual result.

Well, that's obvious. I think everyone is aware of that.

 

[RattaKuningas]

I decided to make top 10 instead, hopefully no one minds.

1. Contador (I know what you might be thinking but as a Contador fan I can't help myself. If Contador is not in the form I hope then he'll probably end 3rd and Quintana will win while Froome will finish 2nd overall).
2. Quintana
3. Froome
4. Aru
5. someone unexpected
6. Bardet
7. Martin
8. Barguil
9. Mollema
10. Yates

Out of top 10
TJVG, Porte, Pinot

I didn't include Nibali and Valverde. Nibali because I'm not still sure what his role after the first week will be. Will he ride for GC or assist Aru, I have no idea.
I also ruled out all Sky riders besides Froome because if Froome is vulnerable in 3rd week as was the case previously then Team Sky riders will probably have to sacrifice themselves.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

5. someone unexpected

And who do you expect to be this someone unexpected?

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: Re:

5. someone unexpected

And who do you expect to be this someone unexpected?

Someone who I can't even think of right now and a name that hasn't been mentioned as a top 15 contender right now.
I just have this feeling.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re:

1. The guy who wins
2. The guy who places second
3. The guy who places third
4. The guy who Places fourth
5. The guy who places fifth
6. The guy who places sixth
7. The guy who places seventh
8. The guy who places eighth
9. The guy who places ninth
10. The guy who places tenth
11. The guy who places eleventh
12. The guy who places twelfth
13. The guy who places thirteenth
14. The guy who places fourtenth
15. The guy who places fifteenth
...
146. Lanterne Rouge.

So you're predicting how many will finish then