1. Christopher Froome: It might be a boring Tour with Froome and the Chattanoogoo Choo Choo completely dominating.
2. Nairo Quintana: He looks relaxed and in good shape. If he doesn't lose much on the flat he might be a threat for yellow in the mountain stages of the final week.
3. Alberto Contador: He still wants to, but I'm not sure if he still can. He will be the most agressive of the top three favorites, but will his attacks actually amount to something?
4. Fabio Aru: He has been hiding himself, but he'll probably be there. I don't expect him to win this Tour, but a good performance would mean that he's a potential future winner.
5. Richie Porte: On his good days he's among the best climbers, and the MTT suits him. The question is whether he can avoid that one really bad day for once.
6. Thibaut Pinot: He has an attractive style, takes initiative. I just put him one level below the absolute top climbers; he's the best of the rest.
7. Romain Bardet: He'll probably end up riding against Pinot for first Frenchman. A podium place seems a bit high for him, though not impossible.
8. Tejay Van Garderen: It's hard to estimate his form after TdS. He's not sure of the leadership in his team, but normally he'll finish somewhere between 4th and 8th without being noticed.
9. Vincenzo Nibali: I don't really see him sacrificing himself for Aru, but I also don't see him winning this Tour. Unpredictable factor.
10. Warren Barguil: I spite of his weak time trial he showed good climbing form in TdS, so he has a shot at a top ten place and the white jersey.
11. Andrew Talansky: He had a lot of bad luck in the past two years, but he seems to be back on track.
12. Bauke Mollema: You won't ever notice him, but he'll finish between 6th and 12th.
13. Daniel Martin: He might just go for a stage win, but he looked really good in the Dauphiné, and one doesn't exclude the other.
14. Sergio Henao: There are usually two Sky riders in the top 20, and Henao looks stronger than Thomas and Landa at the moment. This team could have six riders in the top 20 if it wanted to.
15. Adam Yates: He's the second candidate for white, so he'll probably focus on the GC.
Honorable mentions:
*Robert Gesink: I would have put him in the top 10, but after his crash it's very doubtful whether he'll even start.
*Alejandro Valverde: He'll be tired after an already great season. After making the podium in last year's Tour and this year's Giro he might focus on a stage win and maybe even work for Quintana.
*Pierre Rolland: I think he'll focus on the polka dot jersey and a stage win.
*Geraint Thomas: I'm just wondering what would happen if Froome crashed out in the first week.
*Wilco Kelderman: He looked strong for a few days in Suisse, but what happened afterwards won't boost his confidence.