Tour De France - Top 3 finish

[Pantani_lives]

This is my current top ten:

1 Contador: Stronger than last year, and with Kreuziger and Rogers by his side something like in the Dauphiné can't happen again.
2 Froome: Don't write him off after what happened in the Dauphiné. I think he wasn't interested in defending a second place and he rather saw Talansky win than Contador. He's still one of the two top favorites.
3 Talansky: If he didn't peak too early he's definitely a podium contender. Good combination of climbing and time trialling.
4 Nibali: Not impressive in the Dauphiné, but maybe he improved his shape in the Dolomites.
5 Van den Broeck: Found his shape back just in time. Not too confident about the cobblestones, but he's among the best climbers.
6 Valverde: I don't think he will ever be on the Tour podium, but he's having a strong season and it's a good course for him.
7 Rui Costa: After his third Tour de Suisse win he might finally do well in the Tour GC, now that he's a team leader.
8 Mollema: Smart rider, well prepared. I expect him in the second half of the top ten.
9 Pinot: Disappointed last year, but after finishing seventh in the Vuelta and focussing on the Tour this year I think he might be the first Frenchman again.
10 Kwiatkowski: Eleventh last year and his team has a lot of confidence in him. Good time triallist, but he'll have to limit the damage in the mountains.

 

[HappyLoser]

nice klisting.
bu i dont remember many TdF's where the top-9 is within 10 min. it has usually been 15 min for top-7 on an average.

Thx. That's true, changed list below. But imo JVDB, Talansky & Valverde present similiar level now. Froome can burn himself mentally and he'll have a lot of problems wth long rage attacks coming from AC. Contador won't be interested in chansing Talansky/JVDB untill stage 14. I predict a real roller coaster out there and massive gaps on the finish line. It's the key stage for GC contenders,stage 5. will be really important too.

1.Contador
2.Van Den Broeck +3:30 /able to follow AC once or twice/
3.Talansky !!! + 4:00 / stage 5. loss + above/
4.Valverde +4:20 /stage 14. + ITT loss/
5.Froome +6:30 /stage 5. + stage 14. loss/
6.Nibali +8:00 /really bad performance/
7.Mollema +10:00
8.Kwiatkowski +12:30 /stage 5. bonus + massive loss on stage 14./
9.Pinot +14:00
10.Costa + 15:00 /stage hunting bonus/

 

[cineteq]

reason?

He loses time someway somehow, he throws a tantrum and then retires.

 

[Jspear]

He loses time someway somehow, he throws a tantrum and then retires.

Froome will probably have the mentality of either I win or nothing. He doesn't want to be on the lower step of a podium looking up at AC. So ya, when he realizes he can't follow AC's big attacks, he'll just stop trying.

 

[ILovecycling]

He loses time someway somehow, he throws a tantrum and then retires.

ok,deal..of course after Alberto dropps him in mountain stage (to not give a chance to british whinners)

 

[Jspear]

1. Contador
2. Froome
3. Mollema

That's bold putting Mollema in 3rd. Any special reason why?

 

[Akuryo]

That's bold putting Mollema in 3rd. Any special reason why?

If he can hang on at stage 5 with Vanmarcke, it could end with a podium for him. And he is Bauke Mollema. That alone should be enough for justification.

 

[Avoriaz]

1. Contador
2. Nibali
3. Talansky

Froome (DNF)

This. Though Valverde in third

 

[Jspear]

If he can hang on at stage 5 with Vanmarcke, it could end with a podium for him. And he is Bauke Mollema. That alone should be enough for justification.

It is a three week gt. You can't put everything on one stage. To podium he is going to have to climb a lot better than last year + his tt is only mediocre. I'm just saying I wouldn't bet on him podiuming.

 

[PedalCastro]

1- Contador/Froome
2- Contador/Froome
3- Van Den Broeck
4- Nibali
5- TGBM
6- Talansky
7- Valverde
8- Costa
9- Konig
10- Navarro

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It is a three week gt. You can't put everything on one stage. To podium he is going to have to climb a lot better than last year + his tt is only mediocre. I'm just saying I wouldn't bet on him podiuming.

His TT isn't mediocre. It's average.

He was 11th in both timetrials last year. He normally is pretty good in hilly timetrials.
Just because he had a below par TT in Suisse doesn't mean that that is the norm for Mollema.

 

[del1962]

He loses time someway somehow, he throws a tantrum and then retires.

Yiu said he wouldn't win last year though

 

[ILovecycling]

That's bold putting Mollema in 3rd. Any special reason why?

because he is better wheelsucker than valverde and leipheimer combined

 

[gustienordic]

Contador
Nibali
Talansky

One can dream

Froome TUE gets denied, drops out from asthma (hopefully that's not too clinicy)

EDIT: Someone already posted this!

 

[thehook]

Contador
Nibali
Talansky

One can dream


EDIT: Someone already posted this!

I had the same podium! I think Froome could get caught out in week 3. That is where I can see Talansky making a podium move. If he hangs close for the first 2 weeks say top 6/7. He has a real shot. He seems to go well in the 3rd week. Froome also could be looking at Nibs & Berto breaking his balls with there 2 strong teams for the first 2 weeks. This give Talansky a better short at podium. As an American IMHO.
For me TJV is not explosive enough in climbing. Watch him in various races over the years. He is more of a grinding climber aka Cadel/Wiggo. I Know, I know they both won a tour! But to me an explosive climber with a good TT is a better more consistent GT contender. Not needing a course designed to meet there needs. Also with more of a real chance at any of the 3 GT's.

 

[del1962]

Contador
Nibali
Talansky

One can dream

Froome TUE gets denied, drops out from asthma (hopefully that's not too clinicy)

EDIT: Someone already posted this!

Will this be before Birty finds more clen in a steak(hopefully that not too clinicy either)

 

[ILovecycling]

This is too much guys,drop clinic talk.

 

[Yorkshire89]

Froome
Contador
Valverde
Nibali
Rui Costa
Van den Broeck
Talansky
Mollema
Fuglsang

Can't see Horner & Rodriguez challenging due to injuries & see Pinot, Van Garderen & Peraud as no more than top 10 challengers.

Then Porte & Kreuziger have the potential to challenge if anything happens to Froome / Contador

 

[auscyclefan94]

That's bold putting Mollema in 3rd. Any special reason why?

I don't think Nibali is up to it this year. I think Valverde is past it and his tt is not good enough. Mollema is climbing well enough to be 6th last year in the Tour, I think with improvement in his ability, team support and tactical nous he can move up to the podium.

Fyi, I think he will be a fair way behind Froome and Contador in regards to the time gap.

 

[willbick]

I don't think Nibali is up to it this year. I think Valverde is past it and his tt is not good enough. Mollema is climbing well enough to be 6th last year in the Tour, I think with improvement in his ability, team support and tactical nous he can move up to the podium.

Fyi, I think he will be a fair way behind Froome and Contador in regards to the time gap.

Bit harsh to say Valverde is 'past it' after a strong early season (albeit in fairly minor races') and winning FW. I dont think he needs a great TT to still podium as there is only one TT and cant see him losing much time to the other podium contenders (except froome, contador)

 

[del1962]

What would be quite funny would be if Froome and Contador where so busy watching each other that someone else slips away up the road and gets a lead they can't pull back, like in the Dauphinine

 

[Publicus]

I don't think Contador will let that happen again (he's Dauphine team was far too weak compared to their hypothetical Tour lineup). I think Froome gets sick at some point during the Tour because he trained too hard and lost too much weight after Contador's surprising performance at the Dauphine.

 

[ILovecycling]

I don't think Contador will let that happen again (he's Dauphine team was far too weak compared to their hypothetical Tour lineup). I think Froome gets sick at some point during the Tour because he trained too hard and lost too much weight after Contador's surprising performance at the Dauphine.

Very interesting idea,I pointed this out right after dauphine,Froome can be seriously overtrained, but same goes for Nibali (maybe even valverde)

 

[Jspear]

Very interesting idea,I pointed this out right after dauphine,Froome can be seriously overtrained, but same goes for Nibali (maybe even valverde)

Right. While AC's training and build up has been perfecto.

 

[lastplacerider]

Agree with Froome and Contador as 1 and 2 or 2 and 1. Also agree with Valverde, Nibali, Talansky, Mollema, VDB, and Costa as challengers for 3rd. Mathias Frank has some good placings this year - 4th at Romandie and 2nd at TDS. I bet he feels a top 3 is possible. Seems to have a good team with him and has GT experience, although not as a leader.