Tour de Suisse (2.UWT), 9-17 June 2018

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

gg on Porte winning the Tour btw

Im starting to hope

He'll ruin it all by pacing Froome all the way just to get dropped by his mate when it matters.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

LRP smoked everyone on that short climb. Funny how Quintana just seemed to stop.

was funny to see
Q is overrated I think. Just much more riders at his or above his level now

That may be, but lets not forget just how short that climb was. And nobody could follow Porte. I mean, who could? Valverde...?

I have a 2011-Evans type of feel with Quintana this year.

Valverde and Alaphilippe are the only two I can think of that could.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Porte and Quintana have always had diametrically different approach to peaking at the targeted GT. Porte has always been at very high level already at his last prep race, whereas the only time Quintana was really good at his own corresponding outing, he was finished after the first week at the Tour.

I'm not sure how much improvement form-wise Porte has in him for the Tour. There is much more reason to expect such improvement from Nairo between now and July. But with him too there are reasons to be cautious - because of how his last two seasons have gone when GTs and peaking for them are concerned.

But this year Porte hasn't been in monster shape from Down under until Dauphine, he just hit peak(?) shape right now, maybe this could actually be the year that he gets his podium.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

LRP smoked everyone on that short climb. Funny how Quintana just seemed to stop.

was funny to see
Q is overrated I think. Just much more riders at his or above his level now

That may be, but lets not forget just how short that climb was. And nobody could follow Porte. I mean, who could? Valverde...?

I have a 2011-Evans type of feel with Quintana this year.

Limit the damage in the mountains and win the race in the time trial

Exactly!

But seriously, nobody really believes that much in him and he hasn't gone that well this year. But if he survives that one stage and can find his Tour 2015 or Vuelta 2016 legs..

 

[hazaran]

Re:

Porte and Quintana have always had diametrically different approach to peaking at the targeted GT. Porte has always been at very high level already at his last prep race, whereas the only time Quintana was really good at his own corresponding outing, he was finished after the first week at the Tour.

I'm not sure how much improvement form-wise Porte has in him for the Tour. There is much more reason to expect such improvement from Nairo between now and July. But with him too there are reasons to be cautious - because of how his last two seasons have gone when GTs and peaking for them are concerned.

Keep telling yourself that. It's been like a decade with Nairo, guy is going nowhere.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re: Re:

LRP smoked everyone on that short climb. Funny how Quintana just seemed to stop.

was funny to see
Q is overrated I think. Just much more riders at his or above his level now

That may be, but lets not forget just how short that climb was. And nobody could follow Porte. I mean, who could? Valverde...?

I have a 2011-Evans type of feel with Quintana this year.

Limit the damage in the mountains and win the race in the time trial

Exactly!

But seriously, nobody really believes that much in him and he hasn't gone that well this year. But if he survives that one stage and can find his Tour 2015 or Vuelta 2016 legs..

Really?
TdF winner bets, 2nd place, Richie Porte: 9/2.

 

[May0maniac]

Spilak is looking good, but those short steep climbs and uphill sprints aren't exactly his biggest strength.
Still, tomorrow should be a bit better for him and with a good TT I see him finishing 5th or 6th on the gc.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Read the post again: Im talking about Quintana which should be pretty obvious.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Re: Re:

Porte and Quintana have always had diametrically different approach to peaking at the targeted GT. Porte has always been at very high level already at his last prep race, whereas the only time Quintana was really good at his own corresponding outing, he was finished after the first week at the Tour.

I'm not sure how much improvement form-wise Porte has in him for the Tour. There is much more reason to expect such improvement from Nairo between now and July. But with him too there are reasons to be cautious - because of how his last two seasons have gone when GTs and peaking for them are concerned.

But this year Porte hasn't been in monster shape from Down under until Dauphine, he just hit peak(?) shape right now, maybe this could actually be the year that he gets his podium.

Podium is certainly realistic, though all depends on how he gets through the first week. For me, he is the most vulnerable of the main GC guys when it comes to classics type racing. Seeing him that good right now makes me believe he hasn't' got the Nibali 2014-like superpeak for July in reserve. It rather looks like the latter scenario is the plan that Quintana is following. Whether it actually works is another is another matter of course.

 

[RedheadDane]

Because I like weird patterns I'm gonna go with an Italian tomorrow, to continue the Italian-Dane-Italian-Dane thread.
In fact, I'm gonna say Cunego to take one last win.

 

[movingtarget]

Porte is usually hitting races in good form it's just crashes, mechanicals and whatever that hold him back. Quintana and Nibali both look like they are taking the long term approach with one target in mind. Whether it works ? Froome had no choice with a slow build up with attempting the double but whether he can hold off the fatigue in the Tour is another matter. I still think the two most important stages for Porte will be the cobbles and the TTT. Both have to be good rides for him to reach the podium or have a better chance than some of his rivals and the cobbles could be more about damage limitation depending on how the other GC riders approach it. His climbing will happen anyway as it's his strength when he's in form and his TT is solid. I don't think Quintana or Nibali have been trying too hard in June. BMC on the other hand are trying to attract sponsors. Porte would be trying to win anyway as he hasn't had much racing this year which could help him later in the Tour and it will still be three weeks before the Tour start anyway.

 

[The Hegelian]

Three big questions lingering over Porte:
1. Team. For all their budget, BMC have never bothered to build a proper GC squad capable of defending in the mountains (let alone attacking). Even when Evans won it was more of a roluer squad. Porte will be isolated often and early in key stages.
2. Head. He doesn't seem to have that hard ruthless edge you need to really go for the jugular in a GT. Probably makes him a more decent bloke than most GT contenders, but it's a liability that has already been exploited by others a bit. Definitely closer to Wiggins than Hinault on the spectrum.
3. Luck. He's obviously had his fair share of misfortune. But in the same breath, if 1 & 2 were stronger, I bet his luck would magically get better.

 

[Koronin]

The TTT for Porte (baring him crashing) should be fine just because we are talking BMC and they are still a very good TTT team. The cobbles are another story. Nibali and Valverde have shown they can not just ride the cobbles but compete (at least to a point) on the cobbles, which is more than the other GC guys have shown.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re:

The TTT for Porte (baring him crashing) should be fine just because we are talking BMC and they are still a very good TTT team. The cobbles are another story. Nibali and Valverde have shown they can not just ride the cobbles but compete (at least to a point) on the cobbles, which is more than the other GC guys have shown.

Why?
Froome, Quintana all showed in 2015 they can ride the cobbles just fine and compete.
Froome dropped all his GC rivals on cobbles that year I think. Hoping for the same this year too.

 

[tobydawq]

Nah, the 2015 stage really didn't tell much. Especially not for Quintana. Froome was fine but Quintana only just managed to survive. Barguil was impressive, though.

Porte's technical abilities don't really rhyme well with cobbles.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Nah, the 2015 stage really didn't tell much. Especially not for Quintana. Froome was fine but Quintana only just managed to survive. Barguil was impressive, though.

Porte's technical abilities don't really rhyme well with cobbles.

Hopefully BMC have at least checked out the stage like other teams have and even ridden part of the course. Good for making bike adjustments as well.

 

[Koronin]

2015 Quintana was struggling. He barely managed to hold on. Also being fine and being able to actually compete aren't the same thing either. Trying to race with the cobbled specialists is a bit different that doing just fine with the other GC guys. Actually Froome didn't gain time on Quintana (who as has been stated was barely hanging on) or Valverde. Their time lose came on the crosswinds stage and the ITTs.

 

[Escarabajo]

So people are putting too much faith in the results at the Tour de Suisse? Lol.

How many times has this has to happened so that we learn to be cautious..

 

[Robert5091]

Let's hope LRP has not peaked a month too early

 

[wirral]

Re:

Three big questions lingering over Porte:
1. Team. For all their budget, BMC have never bothered to build a proper GC squad capable of defending in the mountains (let alone attacking). Even when Evans won it was more of a roluer squad. Porte will be isolated often and early in key stages.
2. Head. He doesn't seem to have that hard ruthless edge you need to really go for the jugular in a GT. Probably makes him a more decent bloke than most GT contenders, but it's a liability that has already been exploited by others a bit. Definitely closer to Wiggins than Hinault on the spectrum.
3. Luck. He's obviously had his fair share of misfortune. But in the same breath, if 1 & 2 were stronger, I bet his luck would magically get better.

Well put.

I think I wrote in another thread that some other GC leaders in different teams would be going toe-to-toe with their DS demanding the whole team is built around them and their GC ambitions. This is not Richie's style and the result is he is left standing on the side of the road waiting over a minute for a spare wheel sans team mates.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Re:

Let's hope LRP has not peaked a month too early

He peaked on Willunga

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

Three big questions lingering over Porte:
1. Team. For all their budget, BMC have never bothered to build a proper GC squad capable of defending in the mountains (let alone attacking). Even when Evans won it was more of a roluer squad. Porte will be isolated often and early in key stages.
2. Head. He doesn't seem to have that hard ruthless edge you need to really go for the jugular in a GT. Probably makes him a more decent bloke than most GT contenders, but it's a liability that has already been exploited by others a bit. Definitely closer to Wiggins than Hinault on the spectrum.
3. Luck. He's obviously had his fair share of misfortune. But in the same breath, if 1 & 2 were stronger, I bet his luck would magically get better.

Well put.

I think I wrote in another thread that some other GC leaders in different teams would be going toe-to-toe with their DS demanding the whole team is built around them and their GC ambitions. This is not Richie's style and the result is he is left standing on the side of the road waiting over a minute for a spare wheel sans team mates.

You'd think though that at least BMC would have a strong interest in building a decent squad for him - they're basically on the cusp of non-existence. But no, they seem to just float along expecting it all to just happen.

Meanwhile, look at AG2R - they're really trying to get on even terms with Sky, with much less $$. And Michelton has built an incredible climbing/GC squad in a matter of 2/3 years. It's not rocket science: just hire some quality climbing doms!

 

[dacooley]

Re:

Nah, the 2015 stage really didn't tell much. Especially not for Quintana. Froome was fine but Quintana only just managed to survive. Barguil was impressive, though.

Porte's technical abilities don't really rhyme well with cobbles.

This. On top of that, the race wasn't torn into pieces in 2015 stage while with tripled amount of cobbled kms it's almost certainly going to happen this year.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

I see people are debating Porte in terms of the tour.

As stated previously, we are 6 weeks away from the deciding mountain stages in the tour.

Only the rarest of riders, can maintain peak condition for so long.

Let's hope Porte can..... but my expectation is, he will run out of steam in week 3 of the tour.

I hope I am wrong, Porte deserves - at long last - to be fighting for the win in a GT...... but I think he has timed it wrong again.

 

[Oliver]

Porte did easy the last months, I don't think he's peaking right now. This Tour de Suisse says nothing because the route is so bad, damn. The mountain stages are nothing. What is a rider like Landa & Quintana even doing here. They better did Dauphiné.