- Oct 30, 2023
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- May 6, 2021
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"I hope that this result we have can bring sponsors, help Manu Hubert and the Arkéa-B&B Hotels team. We show that the staff and the riders are giving their all with the limited resources we have."
Respect Kévin Vauquelin
Respect Kévin Vauquelin
Cookster15
Moderator
- May 14, 2011
- 5,716
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Great ride by Almeida - smashed it! Reminds me when Roglic stole the 2023 Giro from Geraint Thomas on Monte Lussari. Congrats to him for winning this race. He is obviously in great shape for the Tour.
- Sep 2, 2011
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Literally I'm laughing my arse off that in the TdS thread the most curious stuff is that we're talking Ayuso 😂
I admit it's quite a shame that he's so unlikeable 'cause I see he's a very good racer it's just that his ego doesn't compare to his legs.
At least until now (but I'm not believing in great outstanding changes).
He should go the Almeida route. 1 week races and super domestique in GTs. And maybe one day GT captain again.
yaf2
BANNED
- Feb 12, 2025
- 291
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View: https://x.com/Na1chaca/status/1936868701606728166?t=l3szCfSDdPZ-DrnEU-LC1w&s=19
Here is the boys calculation as usual +0.1 watts/kilo to the watts to win calculations. Now someone should ask himself why he did a -0.2 w/kg estimation on comblaux? The answer is clear...
- Jan 29, 2021
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- Mar 20, 2022
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Do you know how they make these calculations?
Ferrari's formula is always underestimating a rider's performance compared to these guys on Internet.
- Sep 12, 2022
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Isn't the most important part that the same method would be used? There are a couple of different sources with different numbers, if you stick to just 1 source, it's much easier to grasp how well riders are doing. Just ignore all the rest.
- Jul 7, 2013
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More parameters are taken into account. In case of an ITT the lack of drafting ups estimates by 0.05-0.1 W/kg. Plus the average is calculated from multiple sections (from shallow to steep), which can produce different results from a simple estimate for the whole climb.
- Feb 20, 2012
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There's a very short flat section in the climb, making the estimate a bit difficult, and it should probably be a fraction higher.
That's not to say we should overreact to this MTT numbers. In fact this being a low altitude MTT should set off all alarms for this climb overestimating climbing ability.
6.8 for 27 seems nuts, but even then Roglic and Bernal were doing that sort of number in the Romandie MTT back in 2018 when Froome was taking half a year to climb Finestre.
I'm fairly sure that in MTTs, especially short ones, W/kg should get higher because the total energy used is low enough that riders don't need to start with full glycogen stores and thus also retain less fluids without being dehydrated. Now normally this sounds like a *** idea if you have to race the day after, but in this case, with the race being over the day after, I'm pretty sure it's the right way to go.
The other red flag is Felix Gall saying he had a bad day, despite doing what's probably career best W/kg he's done on a climb.
Gaps are likely big because of fatigue at the end of an 8 day stage race, which can dull the edge in an effort such as todays, which is only exacerbated by a lot of riders probably going a little too hard in the first split of the climb.
- Jan 29, 2021
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I think formula ferrari is also for 70 kg standard weight, so it will always underestimate at least a bit for 65 kg standard weight.
- Mar 20, 2022
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Yes and no. I don't want to follow just one method if it is wrong and not accurate.
- Sep 12, 2022
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Yeah that's true, but is there a completely correct one? Aren't there too many unknown variables?
- Mar 20, 2022
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- Jan 29, 2021
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I usually follow the calculations of chronoswatts from the Engineer Frederic Portoleau. He is got background in that area, so i think he is very accurate.
ChronosWatts.com
chronoswatts.com Chronos et simulations en Watts des grandes performances cyclistes dans les ascensions mythiques des Grands Tours.
www.chronoswatts.com
Ammattipyoraily is normally viewed as accurate, but i don't know his background.
Naichaca and watts2win i don't find very reliable. They always overestimate a lot and do 60 KG standard weight for sensationalism.
As a example, Naichaca calculated 7.6 w/kg for Vingegaard on ITT Combloux, and it was impossible to be real. Some days later, he did a correction to 7.3 w/kg but it was stil a bit to high compared to other calculations.
- Feb 20, 2012
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The 7.6 W/kg estimate is reason #1 why it does my *** brain in people follow that guy seriously in the first place. It's so baffingly bad. They put in a lot of volume work and pseudo rationalizations and suddenly people eat it up when they *** out the worst numbers possible.I usually follow the calculations of chronoswatts from the Engineer Frederic Portoleau. He is got background in that area, so i think he is very accurate.
ChronosWatts.com
chronoswatts.com Chronos et simulations en Watts des grandes performances cyclistes dans les ascensions mythiques des Grands Tours.
Ammattipyoraily is normally viewed as accurate, but i don't know his background.
Naichaca and watts2win i don't find very reliable. They always overestimate a lot and do 60 KG standard weight for sensationalism.
As a example, Naichaca calculated 7.6 w/kg for Vingegaard on ITT Combloux, and it was impossible to be real. Some days later, he did a correction to 7.3 w/kg but it was stil a bit to high compared to other calculations.
- Sep 12, 2022
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Maybe that deserves it's own topic to find out which method is best, and get to a consensus with the forum such that most members push to use the same source.
- Mar 20, 2022
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They said Pogacar did 473 watts in PdB. Seems too high. I don't get how they came with 6,78 W/Kg (for 66 Kg). 473/66 gives 7,17 W/Kg.I usually follow the calculations of chronoswatts from the Engineer Frederic Portoleau. He is got background in that area, so i think he is very accurate.
ChronosWatts.com
chronoswatts.com Chronos et simulations en Watts des grandes performances cyclistes dans les ascensions mythiques des Grands Tours.
Ammattipyoraily is normally viewed as accurate, but i don't know his background.
Naichaca and watts2win i don't find very reliable. They always overestimate a lot and do 60 KG standard weight for sensationalism.
As a example, Naichaca calculated 7.6 w/kg for Vingegaard on ITT Combloux, and it was impossible to be real. Some days later, he did a correction to 7.3 w/kg but it was stil a bit to high compared to other calculations.
Tour de France 2024, Pogacar le nouveau mutant. Par Frédéric Portoleau
Tadej Pogacar vient de réaliser le doublé Tour d'Italie / Tour de France, une performance inattendue dans ce cyclisme dense en coureurs de très haut niveau. Performance historique au plateau de Beille. Le Slovène a vraiment pris le dessus sur son rival danois Vingegaard au Plateau de Beille...
www.chronoswatts.com
- Feb 20, 2012
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Ammattipyoraily has basically been considered the most reliable for a long time, but he doesn't post as often as he used to anymore IMO.
The issue is which analysts get pushed and why. Most often the numbers that get propagated the hardest by fans/posters are the ones that come out first, or the ones that are highest, because fans wanna hype their guy.
For example, Watts2win consistently craps out super high numbers because it doesn't even take into account drafting. It's basically just meant to be the most basic analysis trying to standardize everything without taking everything into account, and it's meant to work basically as something that takes little work because they put out estimates for so many climbs I'm pretty sure they're actually data scraping. Yet it's gone from not being there to treated like one of the main analyses out there becuase it's usually first and usually the highest number.
Watts2win is the source that I use and I don't care for any other sources.
There are two reasons for it:
First is their big data base. Having all the performances and races there so you can follow a rider's seasonal and year by year progress.
Second reason is that they are unbiased. They don't prioritise certain riders. If Evenepoel does a monster climb in Norway you can see it. If Vingegaard does the same you can see it as well.
It doesn't matter if they are 0.1 or 0.2 W/KG off. By using the same metric for everyone they are making it fair.
And no, they don't overestimate. Literally 99% of their numbers are lower than the Lanterne Rouge guys (who have their agenda of course).
- Feb 20, 2012
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They literally don't take into account drafting and or wind.
This is why you get the lol metrics like Montserrat where suddenly everyone does 6.7 for 19 minutes becuase it's a 6% climb that's paced in a group of 20 until 2km to go.
Unbiased does not mean good. It just means they standardize everything when you should not you just get garbage going in leading to garbage going out.
And numbers being lower doesn't say much, because they are basically frauds tweaking the numbers at any given chance.
- Jan 29, 2021
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I think is 473 watts in a standard weight of 70 kg=6.75 w/kg.They said Pogacar did 473 watts in PdB. Seems too high. I don't get how they came with 6,78 W/Kg (for 66 Kg). 473/66 gives 7,17 W/Kg.
Tour de France 2024, Pogacar le nouveau mutant. Par Frédéric Portoleau
Tadej Pogacar vient de réaliser le doublé Tour d'Italie / Tour de France, une performance inattendue dans ce cyclisme dense en coureurs de très haut niveau. Performance historique au plateau de Beille. Le Slovène a vraiment pris le dessus sur son rival danois Vingegaard au Plateau de Beille...
- Mar 20, 2022
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Right. So Pogacar did 447,48 watts which means 6,88 w/kg (weight: 65 kg) in PdB (his weight oscilated during the Tour. He started with 64,5 kg and hit a max weight of 65,5 kg during the Tour).
- Jan 29, 2021
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They consider 6.78 w/kg if pogacar is 66 kg.
If he was 64/65 kg is probably around 6.8 w/kg.
Since they do in standard weight 70 kg to compare the perfomances of riders with different weight, they consider Pogacar did 6.75 w/kg (473 W/70 kg) and Vingegaard 6.61 w/kg (463 W/70 kg).
Armchair Cyclist
Moderator
- Mar 22, 2010
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If they are pretending every rider weighs 70 kg, why don't they just report Watts and ignore the per kg bit?
May as well say that if I standardise my weekend ride to 1 hour, I rode at 78 km/h.
May as well say that if I standardise my weekend ride to 1 hour, I rode at 78 km/h.
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