U23 races and talents

[peterfin]

Sure, but according to Jonathan Vaughters the good genes will always come from the mother's side of the family, so Tim Merlier and Adrie van der Poel will have/has had no influences on their children's careers.

Max Verstappen will disagree.

 

[Coffeeplanter]

Max Verstappen will disagree.

Given the amount of times Jos ended up in the gravel trap, I would argue the talent comes from the mother’s side.

 

[Berniece]

Sure, but according to Jonathan Vaughters the good genes will always come from the mother's side of the family, so Tim Merlier and Adrie van der Poel will have/has had no influences on their children's careers.

Yeah it's the same for horse breeding, but I would think it's the combination with the father that makes it unique, but I don't know enough about genetics.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Santiago Basso is screwed then.

He may very well be, just like Yeray Sastre seems to be.

Max Verstappen will disagree.

JV used it as an argument for why Dan Martin was a better rider than Nicholas Roche, but since it hadn't stopped him from working with the likes of Ricardo van der Velde, Moreno Moser, Lukas Nerurkar and Markel Beloki, I'm not sure he actually believes in the theory. Considering he also seems to think Georg Steinhauser has gained Jan Ullrich's powers despite not actually being related to him, he was probably just talking crop as per usual.

 

[Coffeeplanter]

Just read an interview with Nordhagen, and he is going home to Norway before starting to work on his next goals ... with the development team. So if there was any doubt about a late Norwegian entry to l'Avenir like Colombia and Denmark did a few years ago, it's pretty much over. As far as the big races go, it's kind of been a wasted season for him with all the illness issues and organisational mess in the Norwegian federation. Maybe he can join the pro team in Burgos to get more races of his terrain, but that's in like 5 days, so not very hopeful for that.

Everything indicates USA is going to bring AJ August to l'Avenir. Very little reference about his worth in the high mountains against this sort of competition other than Valromey where he just choo-choo'd his way up to Plan d'Hotonnes (hardly a mountain) and Grand Colombier with Seixas in his wheel, but I reckon he is an instant podium candidate.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Just read an interview with Nordhagen, and he is going home to Norway before starting to work on his next goals ... with the development team. So if there was any doubt about a late Norwegian entry to l'Avenir like Colombia and Denmark did a few years ago, it's pretty much over. As far as the big races go, it's kind of been a wasted season for him with all the illness issues and organisational mess in the Norwegian federation. Maybe he can join the pro team in Burgos to get more races of his terrain, but that's in like 5 days, so not very hopeful for that.

Everything indicates USA is going to bring AJ August to l'Avenir. Very little reference about his worth in the high mountains against this sort of competition other than Valromey where he just choo-choo'd his way up to Plan d'Hotonnes (hardly a mountain) and Grand Colombier with Seixas in his wheel, but I reckon he is an instant podium candidate.

So Norhagen isn't going to Avenir? Would have liked to see him against some of the others to get a better idea where they all stand. Nordhagen vs Widar vs August... Could have been a great line-up. I have no idea how to rate August, there's been a lot of hype around him, but in the few pro races i saw him in during spring, he seemed behind the pace uphill (of what i expected). His results seem to have gradually improved though, however with few references on real climbs vs big opposition.
Could be fun though, i get the impression August doesn't have much, if any, punch and is more of a diesel climber. Widar is the opposite, at heart more a puncher than a real climber. August needs to drop Widar in order to win. Widar needs to do the old Roglic Special if he can, in order to win.

Are there any other hyped favorites? Torres has been good, but not dominant. Rondell is going. What are we expecting of Morgado?

 

[Samamba]

Widar is the opposite, at heart more a puncher than a real climber. August needs to drop Widar in order to win. Widar needs to do the old Roglic Special if he can, in order to win.

August is definitely more of a diesel climber, but I wouldn't day the punchy thing about Widar anymore given most of his top performances are just him riding on the front of the peloton and gradually dropping everyone of his wheel. Ofcourse he does still have his punch and youre probably right that others don't want to go to the finish with him, but the virale twitter clips of his accelerations don't do his steady climbing capabilities justice.

Anyways gonna be a bit of weird Avenir. Hard to know what the level is going to be with mainly 1st years battling it out it seems (Rondel being the oldest probably). And then Nordhagen isnt even going and I haven't heard about any pros going either as that would give us some sort of benchmark (like Riccitello last year).

Not sure how to rate Morgado's real climbing capabilities honestly. He was decent on Dhloue Strane against u23 field earlier this year but not special. And Im not sure about his form either.

For now the biggest question for me is if Widars team will be strong enough. The Frenchies are bringing a really strong one for example.

 

[Mayomaniac]

So Norhagen isn't going to Avenir? Would have liked to see him against some of the others to get a better idea where they all stand. Nordhagen vs Widar vs August... Could have been a great line-up. I have no idea how to rate August, there's been a lot of hype around him, but in the few pro races i saw him in during spring, he seemed behind the pace uphill (of what i expected). His results seem to have gradually improved though, however with few references on real climbs vs big opposition.
Could be fun though, i get the impression August doesn't have much, if any, punch and is more of a diesel climber. Widar is the opposite, at heart more a puncher than a real climber. August needs to drop Widar in order to win. Widar needs to do the old Roglic Special if he can, in order to win.

Are there any other hyped favorites? Torres has been good, but not dominant. Rondell is going. What are we expecting of Morgado?

After his poor performance at the U23 Giro Crescioli showed his usual level in Valle d'Aosta, not that far behind Widar on the longer climbs. I don't expect him to win, but top 5 seems possible.

Van Bekkum had that one monster performance on a big MTF in the Ronde de l'Isard this year, but he was rather meh in the Baby Giro and afterwards, so no idea what to expect from him either.

Pellizzari is also not racing it, since he already secured a WT contract with Bora.

 

[Coffeeplanter]

So Norhagen isn't going to Avenir? Would have liked to see him against some of the others to get a better idea where they all stand. Nordhagen vs Widar vs August... Could have been a great line-up. I have no idea how to rate August, there's been a lot of hype around him, but in the few pro races i saw him in during spring, he seemed behind the pace uphill (of what i expected). His results seem to have gradually improved though, however with few references on real climbs vs big opposition.
Could be fun though, i get the impression August doesn't have much, if any, punch and is more of a diesel climber. Widar is the opposite, at heart more a puncher than a real climber. August needs to drop Widar in order to win. Widar needs to do the old Roglic Special if he can, in order to win.

Are there any other hyped favorites? Torres has been good, but not dominant. Rondell is going. What are we expecting of Morgado?

Correct, no Nordhagen.

The hype surrounding AJ probably revolves for a large part around the comments from Toby Stanton, who once said he is like Remco but with more power, I presume? It's an unfortunate, unfair situation, much like what happened to Uijtdebroeks when he was a junior and broke some climbing record. Young riders who are essentially kids having to deal with extra pressure cause some loudmouth wants his moment of shine. AJ is a very bright talent who we will be seeing a lot of in the (near) future. Very mature, very strong all around. But he ain't some generational, can't miss prospect. Hell, he was getting beaten by a 15 year old Ashlin Barry. Very crash prone too, I must add. As a junior he was clearly a level below Nordhagen as a GC contender. With the rapid improvement of Widar, I think he has surpassed him in that regard as well. He is very similar in climbing style to Remco, but that's where the similarities end.

Despite this being an U23 level race with a homogeneous peloton, I can't see Morgado challenging for a GC. Since his Barraida days he struck me as an Alaphilippe kind of rider, and he hasn't been able to shake that comparison. Not that he needs to, because being the next Alain Philippe is a great position to be in, but the longer efforts never seemed his forté.

Matys Rondel, Tijmen Graat and Darren van Bekkum, AJ August, Diego Pescador, Pablo Torres are the first names that come to mind and have been confirmed, and I don't think Widar should have much of a problem dealing with them. It all depends on if some country decides it wants to send a pro. For instance, if a rider of similar level to Alexy Faure Prost shows up on some team we'll have a completely different race.

 

[Squire]

For instance, if a rider of similar level to Alexy Faure Prost shows up on some team we'll have a completely different race.

The 2024 version of Faure Prost won't scare anyone, though. And when he's not on the national team, I doubt he'll show up. Can't see them putting a full pro on a regional team.

 

[Samamba]

Correct, no Nordhagen.

The hype surrounding AJ probably revolves for a large part around the comments from Toby Stanton, who once said he is like Remco but with more power, I presume? It's an unfortunate, unfair situation, much like what happened to Uijtdebroeks when he was a junior and broke some climbing record. Young riders who are essentially kids having to deal with extra pressure cause some loudmouth wants his moment of shine. AJ is a very bright talent who we will be seeing a lot of in the (near) future. Very mature, very strong all around. But he ain't some generational, can't miss prospect. Hell, he was getting beaten by a 15 year old Ashlin Barry. Very crash prone too, I must add. As a junior he was clearly a level below Nordhagen as a GC contender. With the rapid improvement of Widar, I think he has surpassed him in that regard as well. He is very similar in climbing style to Remco, but that's where the similarities end.

Despite this being an U23 level race with a homogeneous peloton, I can't see Morgado challenging for a GC. Since his Barraida days he struck me as an Alaphilippe kind of rider, and he hasn't been able to shake that comparison. Not that he needs to, because being the next Alain Philippe is a great position to be in, but the longer efforts never seemed his forté.

Matys Rondel, Tijmen Graat and Darren van Bekkum, AJ August, Diego Pescador, Pablo Torres are the first names that come to mind and have been confirmed, and I don't think Widar should have much of a problem dealing with them. It all depends on if some country decides it wants to send a pro. For instance, if a rider of similar level to Alexy Faure Prost shows up on some team we'll have a completely different race.

Well Faure Prost was going to ride, but he's been injured all season and only on the way back recently, so didn't even make the French selection. Sure could be with one of the regional teams maybe (but would be a bit weird), but sadly he just doesn't have the level right now. Would've been a good benchmark.

UAE should just send Christen
No seriously, I'm assuming Rafferty isn't going? That would be the most realistic and interesting one imo.
Or if Piganzoli wants to go again, but really doubt it. Would find it weird given his good Giro.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Did Marivoet fall off a cliff after signing for UAE?

 

[Coffeeplanter]

Well Faure Prost was going to ride, but he's been injured all season and only on the way back recently, so didn't even make the French selection. Sure could be with one of the regional teams maybe (but would be a bit weird), but sadly he just doesn't have the level right now. Would've been a good benchmark.

UAE should just send Christen
No seriously, I'm assuming Rafferty isn't going? That would be the most realistic and interesting one imo.
Or if Piganzoli wants to go again, but really doubt it. Would find it weird given his good Giro.

Yes, I know Faure Prost is injured. He was just the first name amongst pro's that popped into my head that could cause a shift between the favorites. To be honest, after thinking about it for some time he's also one of the very few names I can even come up with. The only one besides the ones you name I can think of is Johannes Kulset and he obviously can't line up.

Maybe Afonso Eulalio once he is doing slapping his competition in the Volta.

 

[Samamba]

Maybe Afonso Eulalio once he is doing slapping his competition in the Volta.

Isn't he too old already? He's from 2001?

 

[hayneplane]

The potential field this year for L’Avenir looks a bit underwhelming and I feel like I am already looking forward to next year and Seixas/Barry/AWP potentially being there.

 

[RedheadDane]

The potential field this year for L’Avenir looks a bit underwhelming and I feel like I am already looking forward to next year and Seixas/Barry/AWP potentially being there.

Not sure he would... think I've read somewhere that DCU have a "rule" about not selecting WT riders for U23 races, even if they're young enough.
Of course, there's nothing preventing them from making an exception.

 

[Coffeeplanter]

Not sure he would... think I've read somewhere that DCU have a "rule" about not selecting WT riders for U23 races, even if they're young enough.
Of course, there's nothing preventing them from making an exception.

Plus l'Avenir usually falls around the same period as the mtb world championships, which I can't see him give up just yet. Ashlin Barry is a definite no show, given he is a first year junior.

 

[hayneplane]

Not sure he would... think I've read somewhere that DCU have a "rule" about not selecting WT riders for U23 races, even if they're young enough.
Of course, there's nothing preventing them from making an exception.

Fair I suppose from a point of view of giving the riders trying to earn contracts the showcase opportunity but you would like to think they can be flexible when it comes to an 18 year old.

 

[hayneplane]

Plus l'Avenir usually falls around the same period as the mtb world championships, which I can't see him give up just yet. Ashlin Barry is a definite no show, given he is a first year junior.

Oops forgot about that. Feels like now that top juniors are training with all the tech aids to understand their development then they should be allowed to apply to skip their 2nd junior year and do a year in under 23 instead.

 

[Samamba]

Did Marivoet fall off a cliff after signing for UAE?

He was imo just a bit overrated. Overhyped in his first year as a junior. Talented, but he never looked special. He was mainly pretty good at TTing, but saw himself as a future GC rider but never really showed the absolute top climbing potential. Obviously it could be that he just needs more time. He also had some health problems earlier this year.

UAE went after the wrong Belgian. And Marivoet himself simply made the wrong decision going there imo.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He was imo just a bit overrated. Overhyped in his first year as a junior. Talented, but he never looked special. He was mainly pretty good at TTing, but saw himself as a future GC rider but never really showed the absolute top climbing potential. Obviously it could be that he just needs more time. He also had some health problems earlier this year.

UAE went after the wrong Belgian. And Marivoet himself simply made the wrong decision going there imo.

Overrated is likely, but he was also far from average/mediocre. Now he 's just nowhere.

 

[Samamba]

Blackmore, Morgado and Leonard are the only WT pros on the provisional startlist besides some of the neo's that are from Widars generation like Beloki and ofcourse August who will be one of the favorites.

Gonna be hard to judge this years edition I feel like, but at least Blackmore could make it interesting. I'm not sure how good he is in the big mountains tho, I remember in Rwanda for example that he seemed to struggle a bit on longer climbs compared to the punchy ones.

No Milan Donie for Widar, his teammate and best friend. He was struggling with sickness a lot after the Giro, but I wonder if Widar not having Donie around him could make him less comfortable. He does have a decent team around him with Orins and Rex as guys with a strong engine who can also climb a bit, Verstrynghe & Dockx as climbers and then Servranckx cause... well i have no idea why honestly. He is somewhat of a climbing type but imo there's other who deserved this spot more, but I guess QS needs a guy in there?

A few teams have not send in their list

Teams & Riders - Tour de l'Avenir 2024

tourdelavenir.com

 

[houtdffan]

Is the U23 division even relevant any more?

The good U23s are heading straight to the world tour these days

 

[Mayomaniac]

Blackmore, Morgado and Leonard are the only WT pros on the provisional startlist besides some of the neo's that are from Widars generation like Beloki and ofcourse August who will be one of the favorites.

Gonna be hard to judge this years edition I feel like, but at least Blackmore could make it interesting. I'm not sure how good he is in the big mountains tho, I remember in Rwanda for example that he seemed to struggle a bit on longer climbs compared to the punchy ones.

No Milan Donie for Widar, his teammate and best friend. He was struggling with sickness a lot after the Giro, but I wonder if Widar not having Donie around him could make him less comfortable. He does have a decent team around him with Orins and Rex as guys with a strong engine who can also climb a bit, Verstrynghe & Dockx as climbers and then Servranckx cause... well i have no idea why honestly. He is somewhat of a climbing type but imo there's other who deserved this spot more, but I guess QS needs a guy in there?

A few teams have not send in their list

Teams & Riders - Tour de l'Avenir 2024

tourdelavenir.com

Well, at least it's not only Italy that has to meet certain team quotas with their selection...

 

[Mayomaniac]

That said, the Italian team actually looks good climbing wise. Crescioli was 3rd in Valle d'Aosta and 4th in the Ronde de l'Isard, Gualdi was also top 10 in Valle d'Aosta and they also have Pinarello and Kajamini, who are good in hilly one day races, but also finished the u23 Giro inside the top 10.