As I understand it, ten teams already have a licence that lasts for at least one more season:
* AG2R – LA MONDIALE
* KATUSHA
* LAMPRE – ISD
* OMEGA PHARMA – LOTTO
* QUICKSTEP CYCLING TEAM
* RABOBANK CYCLING TEAM
* SAXO BANK SUNGARD
* SKY PROCYCLING
* TEAM GARMIN - CERVELO
* TEAM RADIOSHACK
All of those are in the top 20, so unless financial/ethical issues are stumbling boxes, these ten are in.
There were 10 other applicants reported by the UCI on 5th October:
* BMC RACING TEAM
* COFIDIS
* EUSKALTEL – EUSKADI
* FDJ
* GEOX – TMC
* HTC – HIGHROAD
* LIQUIGAS – CANNONDALE
* LUXEMBOURG PRO CYCLING PROJECT
* TELEFONICA MOVISTAR
* VACANSOLEIL – DCM PROCYCLING TEAM
and it is generally accepted that 2 additional applications were only missing for administrative reasons, and could be considered:
* ASTANA
* FLY-V PEGASUS
So of the 12 applicants for 8 places, 2 are essentially disqualified on sporting grounds (Pegasus and FDJ being out of the top 20), and 7 are in the top 15 (ASTANA, BMC, HTC, LIQUIGAS, LUXEMBOURG, TELEFONICA, VACANSOLEIL).
So that leaves 1 out of three:
* COFIDIS
* EUSKALTEL – EUSKADI
* GEOX – TMC
to get a PT licence. My money would be on Geox.
But Astana might be called into question ethically, or administratively, and so Euskaltel would be my bet to take their place if they dont make it.
If Saxo drop out of the top 15 because of losing AC's points, I would consider them to be still well placed in what would then be a case of 2 out of 4 (Saxo, Geox, Euskaltel, Cofidis), but if they were to lose so many points that they went out of the top 20, then there might be hope yet for Cofidis.
But the implication here that many of you will have been hoping for: Vacansoleil look likely to be in!