UCI Prediction Game

[Armchair Cyclist]

Thanks: that'll teach me to try to tweak it after I had it right. I believe I have it back as it should be now. I had repeated the scores acheived for each rider into your column, and shifted everything else one place to the right. (but you'd noticed that: I hadn't flipped the page to see your later note)

 

[The Hitch]

I think the scores so far will likely turn out to be meaningless. Thats because you only count top 5 (right?) and anyone who has Matthews or Goss in their top 5 scorers isnt likely to feature. Well goss maybe actually.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I think the scores so far will likely turn out to be meaningless. Thats because you only count top 5 (right?) and anyone who has Matthews or Goss in their top 5 scorers isnt likely to feature. Well goss maybe actually.

Yeah: obviously with less than 4% of the competition gone, no-one can assume they will be up there or needs to despair. I'm not expecting anyone to celebrate or despair: just providing an update.

Meyer (had anyone chosen him) already has more points than the 4th best Belgian last season (and Belgium came 3rd in the team title), and enough to get into the Liquigas top 5 of last year, and they only missed out on being the top team in a sprint for 4th place in the last race of the series last year. Early points are just as valuable as late ones.

 

[Izzy eviel]

Is this going to be updated again soon?

 

[ingsve]

Is this going to be updated again soon?

Well, before there is any point of doing an update I think there should at least be another world tour race first. There's only been 1 so far.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

After Paris-Nice, at least everyone is off the mark. Wiggins, Haussler, Urán and Sagan were all popular picks. Rein Taaramae was the only high scorer not in anyone's squad.

On3m@n @rmy (188 pts from Kloden, Sánchez and Péraud) prevented Jaylew (185 points, mainly by virtue of being the only one to pick Tony Martin) from being top performer again, and Ingsve remains third overall.

Latest scores

I hadn't realised that Fat Pat had changed the rules, and while in the past riders for national teams were ineligible for points, now that applies to ProConti teams as well: Taaramae and Voeckler don't appear on the rankings published today (Monday). But as many of us have chosen non ProTeam riders, I'll ignore that and allocate points as previous years

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Big scorers today:
Ingsve (Goss, Gilbert, van Avermaet)
Waterloo (Cancellara, Gilbert)
Jaylew (Goss, Pozzato)
Jancouver/Hitch (Cancellara, Pozzato)
Cobra (Gilbert, Pozzato)


Top 5 after 4 events (of 26 or 27, depending on whether there is a Tour of Beijing)

Jaylew 466 (Goss 203, Martin 108, Sánchez 59, Pozzato 50, Ventoso 46)
Ingsve 381 (Goss 203, Gilbert 86, Wiggins 74, van Avermaet 10, Haussler 8)
Roundabout 271 (Wiggins 74, Basso 62, Sánchez 59, Pozzato 50, Cunego 26)
Waterloo 250 (Gilbert 86, Cancellara 86, Wiggins 74, Urán 2, Di Luca 2)
Hitch 234 (Cancellara 86, Matthews 70, Pozzato 50, Leipheimer 20, Haussler 8)


Full scoresheet

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

The Volta finished so long before Gent-Wevelegem that I've worked out a separate interim score:

Jaylew 477 (Goss 203, Martin 108, Sánchez 59, Urán 57, Pozzato 50)
Ingsve 430 (Goss 203, Gilbert 86, Wiggins 74, Urán 57, van Avermaet 10)
Roundabout 332 (Basso 92, Wiggins 74, Sánchez 59, Urán 57, Pozzato 50)
Waterloo 305 (Gilbert 86, Cancellara 86, Wiggins 74, Urán 57, Di Luca 2)
Hitch 285 (Cancellara 86, Matthews 70, Urán 57, Pozzato 50, Leipheimer 22)

Urán's efforts over the week helped everybody at the top of the table: Hitch will kick himself over Leipheimers DNS costing him 80 points. But no-one has Contador (not surprisingly) or Scarponi (who was expensive, but is scoring well), so not many changes, and the top 5 are unchanged in order, although 30 more for Basso has closed the gap between Roundabout and the top 2.

 

[The Hitch]

The Volta finished so long before Gent-Wevelegem that I've workoud out a separate interim score:

Jaylew 477 (Goss 203, Martin 108, Sánchez 59, Urán 57, Pozzato 50)
Ingsve 430 (Goss 203, Gilbert 86, Wiggins 74, Urán 57, van Avermaet 10)
Roundabout 332 (Basso 92, Wiggins 74, Sánchez 59, Urán 57, Pozzato 50)
Waterloo 305 (Gilbert 86, Cancellara 86, Wiggins 74, Urán 57, Di Luca 2)
Hitch 285 (Cancellara 86, Matthews 70, Urán 57, Pozzato 50, Leipheimer 22)

Urán's efforts over the week helped everybody at the top of the table: Hitch will kick himself over Leipheimers DNS costing him 80 points. But no-one has Contador (not surprisingly) or Scarponi (who was expensive, but is scoring well), so not many changes, and the top 5 are unchanged in order, although 30 more for Basso has closed the gap between Roundabout and the top 2.

Since i have A Schleck Leipheimers foolishness wont cost me too much so long as Pozzato produces. Oh wait, he would have been my top scorer. Well, maybe a few of my 0 pointers will produce then.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

We finally have some change at the top: Boonen lifts Ingsve into the lead, and Hitch into 3rd, while Bennati added usefully today to Roundabout's score.

Ingsve 500 (Goss 203, Gilbert 86, Boonen 80, Wiggins 74, Urán 57)
Jaylew 477 (Goss 203, Martin 108, Sánchez 59, Urán 57, Pozzato 50)
Hitch 343 (Cancellara 86, , Boonen 80, Matthews 70, Urán 57, Pozzato 50)
Roundabout 342 (Basso 92, Wiggins 74, Sánchez 59, Urán 57, Bennati 60)
Waterloo 305 (Gilbert 86, Cancellara 86, Wiggins 74, Urán 57, Di Luca 2)

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

The update is posted

Some high scorers this week who didn't make the top 5 are:
Kazistuta (Boonen and Dan Martin)
Jraama (Boonen and Farrar)
Henry Olonga (Boonen and Greipel)

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Nobody had either of the first two in the Ronde, so the best scorers are those with Cancellara and Boonen in their squads (Jancouver and Hitch), with progress being made by those who had at least one of them (Ingsve, Waterloo, Kazistuta, Schweinika, Henry Olonga and Jraama). Kudos to On3m@n@rmy, the only one to select George Hincapie.


Top 5 now reads:
Ingsve 570 (Goss 203, Boonen 140, Gilbert 96, Wiggins 74, Urán 57)
Jaylew 477 (Goss 203, Martin 108, Sánchez 59, Urán 57, Pozzato 50)
Hitch 473 (Cancellara 156, Boonen 140, Matthews 70, Urán 57, Pozzato 50)
Waterloo 385 (Cancellara 156, Gilbert 96, Wiggins 74, Urán 57, Di Luca 2)
Jancouver 348 (Cancellara 156, Boonen 140, Pozzato 50, Sagan 2)

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Superb scoring this week by On3m@n@rmy, who leaps into the top 5 courtesy of Kloden, Sánchez and Intxausti; good scores also from the Basque country for Nobilis, (Tondó and Intxausti) and Jaylew, who clinched the "yellow jersey" for at least one day by virtue of Tony Martin's TT win, but also gained from Sánchez and Tondó this week. Roundabout re-enters the top 5 as a result of Samu's efforts.


Jaylew 573 (Goss 203, Martin 114, Sánchez 109, Tondó 90, Urán 57)
Ingsve 570 (Goss 203, Boonen 140, Gilbert 96, Wiggins 74, Urán 57)
Hitch 473 (Cancellara 156, Boonen 140, Matthews 70, Urán 57, Pozzato 50)
On3m@n@rmy 452 (Kloden 202, Sánchez 109, Intxausti 60, Peraud 41, Hincapie 40)
Roundabout 392 (Sánchez 109, Basso 92, Wiggins 74, Bennati 60, Urán 57)

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Think you've get my score wrong, Armchair.

Oops: had the right score for your 5 scoring riders, but forgot to post new total. Now fixed above. But you'll need Pozzato to do something special today (or a fail by Boonen for Ingsve) to retain your lead...

 

[Cobblestoned]

Impressive to see, how many different combinations with same names are possible.

This shows how hard it is to win @ Lotto.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Only Cancellara did anybody any good today: so well done to Hitch, Waterloo, Jancouver and Schweinika. The only other top ten finisher to feature on anyone's list was Hushovd, but his 20 points don't put him into Ingsve's top five to score, and he was the only one to select him. Waterloo's exile from the top five only lasted a day.

Jaylew 573 (Goss 203, Martin 114, Sánchez 109, Tondó 90, Urán 57)
Ingsve 570 (Goss 203, Boonen 140, Gilbert 96, Wiggins 74, Urán 57)
Hitch 553 (Cancellara 236, Boonen 140, Matthews 70, Urán 57, Pozzato 50)
Waterloo 465 (Cancellara 236, Gilbert 96, Wiggins 74, Urán 57, Di Luca 2)
On3m@n@rmy 452 (Kloden 202, Sánchez 109, Intxausti 60, Peraud 41, Hincapie 40)

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

6 entrants (Ingsve, Waterloo, Kazistuta, Spare Tyre, Ewbles and Cobra) had Gilbert, none had Rodriguez (expensive as last years winner of the series), but Gerrans, Fuglsang and Freire were each on 2 lists, and Kolobnev on 3. Spare Tyre had 2 men on the podium, but although he overtakes 6 of us, he is still only 10th. Kasistuta (Gilbert and Freire) was the only other one with two scorers: knocking at the door of, but not quite in, the top 5.

Top 5
Ingsve 650 (Gilbert 176, Goss 203, Boonen 140, Wiggins 74, Urán 57)
Jaylew 573 (Goss 203, Martin 114, Sánchez 109, Tondó 90, Urán 57)
Hitch 553 (Cancellara 236, Boonen 140, Matthews 70, Urán 57, Pozzato 50)
Waterloo 545 (Cancellara 236, Gilbert 176, Wiggins 74, Urán 57, Di Luca 2)
On3m@n@rmy 452 (Kloden 202, Sánchez 109, Intxausti 60, Peraud 41, Hincapie 40)

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

i am basically where i was.

one question ?

I don't understand, isn't the streak howmany correct guesses you get in a row? I was under the impression no one got JVS at PR? At the moment it seems more like streak and no. of wins are the same...

therfore shouldn't the best streak still be 1?

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I don't understand, isn't the streak howmany correct guesses you get in a row? I was under the impression no one got JVS at PR? At the moment it seems more like streak and no. of wins are the same...

Read the text just below the leaderboard:
"A Streak point is awarded for each race in which a participant scores more than 9 race points"
So not to do with consecutive wins, but is essentially about (a)wins; (b) races where 3 of top 5 chosen; (c) stage races where you got something other than top team right.

The phrase "streak" threw me too...

 

[Tuarts]

i am basically where i was.

one question ?

I don't understand, isn't the streak howmany correct guesses you get in a row? I was under the impression no one got JVS at PR? At the moment it seems more like streak and no. of wins are the same...

therfore shouldn't the best streak still be 1?

Also when we pick the winner we get 10pts + 3pts because we got him in the right place + 3pts because he was in the top 5. That seems weird.

Read the text just below the leaderboard:
"A Streak point is awarded for each race in which a participant scores more than 9 race points"
So not to do with consecutive wins, but is essentially about (a)wins; (b) races where 3 of top 5 chosen; (c) stage races where you got something other than top team right.

The phrase "streak" threw me too...

I'm just doing what is says on the tin.

I thought it was strange too having all these bonus points for 1st but oh well, maybe Merckx can clarify? Should find that old pic of Merckx did of the final standings and see the correlation between wins and streaks. I think in the stage races is when they seperate a bit. Cobblestoned at G-W got 12 points but no win.

 

[Tuarts]

download: http://www.megaupload.com/?d=YGKMCJQ0

Weekly ranking:

Rank - Team - Weekly ranking
1 - coppiman - 513
2 - pabryan - 450
3 - Tuarts - 420
4 - Jan the Man - 383
5 - Sydney21 - 373
6 - tgsgirl - 357
7 - Kazistuta - 351
8 - AntonioRossi - 350
9 - Sneekes - 349
10 - sosososik - 348

download: http://www.megaupload.com/?d=0ZZ42RYV

happy Hugo will come back next week

Wow 420? Must've been mainly from Gerrans and Schleck. Pity 8it didn't move me up high though.

 

[kurtinsc]

Wow 420? Must've been mainly from Gerrans and Schleck. Pity 8it didn't move me up high though.

Gerrans (105)
Kolobnev (79)
Blythe (71)
Ventoso (62)
Shleck (37)
Howard (36)

Plus some guys with less then 20.

Pretty even effort.

 

[Kazistuta]

Three weeks in a row with a top10 score finally brings me in the overall top10.

I've been kicking myself a lot over my forgetting of Di Luca, but hopefully his performance in Amstel is a good indicator of his abilities in the bigger races, so he won't be a major factor in this years game.

My two bad buys are Pellizotti (should have picked Di Luca instead) and Kritskey, who was my potential scoop, but he's not even racing for Itera-Katusha atm.

A lot of my not so sure picks have zero points as well, so my placing is mainly due to the "known faces" Cunego, Ballan, Haussler, Gerrans, Nuyens, D&G, Taaramae and Boonen.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Read the text just below the leaderboard:
"A Streak point is awarded for each race in which a participant scores more than 9 race points"
So not to do with consecutive wins, but is essentially about (a)wins; (b) races where 3 of top 5 chosen; (c) stage races where you got something other than top team right.

The phrase "streak" threw me too...

Ohhhhh I understand now.
My mistake, cheers

I might go send my predictions in now

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

This is the thread that seems to have suffered most from the **** up in creating this sub-forum, but I hope at least some of you are still with me.

If the Giro were to finish with the current GC positions (which of course it won't; sorry Roundabout, but I can't see Le Mevel holding 3rd), then the main point earners would be Jancouver (Kreuziger and Anton), Spare Tyre (Nibali), and Nobilis (Kreuziger, Ventoso and Gadret). Ewbles, along with Spare Tyre, would get into the top 5, but the three leaders would be unaffected.

The riders most likely to improve their GC positions are probably Rujano (Cobra and yours truly), Menchov (Waterloo and me) and Anton (Ingsve, Jaylew, Jancouver, Marcus 135, Izzy and me again), although on today's evidence, those last two might not improve much. There could still be hope for Lovkvist (Ingsve, Ewbles, Roundabout, Henry Olonga and Taiwan) or Sella (Hitch, Cobra, and would you believe it, me yet again), although I wouldn't hold my breath. Carrara might do something for Kazistuta, but otherwise, riders likely to score well in the Giro have not not been picked.

The race with most points available so far (by a large margin) looks likely to make little impact on our competition.