USADA - Armstrong

[the big ring]

You guys are not taking the Bruyneel, Celaya and Marti cases into account. Is that deliberate? Don't you guys think the evidence that comes to light in those cases will have negative impact on Lance's ability to sue everybody and everything?

If Lance "wins" vs USADA before their hearings, can they all just go naaaaah I think I've changed my mind?

 

[Hugh Januss]

You guys are not taking the Bruyneel, Celaya and Marti cases into account. Is that deliberate? Don't you guys think the evidence that comes to light in those cases will have negative impact on Lance's ability to sue everybody and everything?

Well I didn't say it was a perfect plan.......

No matter what transpires I think on some level Lance is hoping to end up in a position where he can still manipulate public opinion to at least some extent. The more people "turn on him" and "rat him out" the more he can play the victim. Some people will buy that.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

That seems like the very last thing Lance would ever want to reveal as that means admitting a positive test.
Perhaps his end game plan is to go down fighting, having made the point that USADA's investigation is a witch hunt and that they were out to get him all along. Eventually loosing some or all of his tour wins after a closed arbitration hearing, which he finally agrees to, but only with the caveat that the records stay sealed. He can then continue with a certain large part of public opinion still on the side of his being railroaded and wrongfully stripped of his wins.
Maybe not a great outcome as far as he's concerned, but much better than actually having to confess all.

My reading of it was this: He is telling the UCI that he will take them down if he goes down, and they'd better do something. Because Wonderboy knows what the evidence is against him because he was there doping. This isn't some mystery. That being the case, he knows that unless something happens, he is toast. If he is toast, he will take down whoever he can with his ship, and the UCI would be first on that list IMO.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

I agree it seems very hard for the judge to deny USADA jurisdiction, but:

What if...
a. Sparks does rule for LA, i.e. that USADA has no right to run this process
b. It becomes a Federal matter as you say, but...
c. The Feds look at this and say: we reviewed this evidence earlier in the year. Not enough to run with. And...
d. Nothing ensues

Please tell me that c/d is an impossible chain of events.

It would be a civil matter if the court for some strange reason believed Armstrong deserved a trial in Federal court regarding his doping, because what he did isn't a criminal offense. There would therefore be two parties, and neither would be the Federal government, so what happened with the investigation would be irrelevant.

 

[MarkvW]

Public exposure of the USPS Conspiracy is highly desirable, but it ought not be valued more than a completed USADA arbitration process.

Armstrong is attacking the very existence of USADA as a viable antidoping actor. If he wins he creates a template for future cheaters to emulate as well as a symbol to future clean cyclists that antidoping enforcement is nothing more than a sick joke.

The hater business often evangelical. For many it is very much like a religion, because they think it is important to convert Lance-Believers into Lance-Non-Believers. It is difficult for me to see how more conversions will be effected by more leaks. There is already sufficient information out there to convince anybody who looks at the facts that Lance doped to win. So the target audience for more leaks is either (a) people too stupid to piece together the obvious; (b) people too biased to piece together the obvious; or (c) people who don't care. More leaks have no hope of convincing the stupid and don't matter for the uncaring. So, seems to me, more leaks is just one more assault on the soul of the fanboys and fangirls. It seems to me that the arbitration process itself affords more chance of effecting a fanboy/fangirl conversion than one more series of leaks.

I want to see the facts, but I'd hate to see Pat Heinie and Armstrong gut the antidoping process. That's why I prioritize the hearing process over the leaking of information.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Public exposure of the USPS Conspiracy is highly desirable, but it ought not be valued more than a completed USADA arbitration process.

Armstrong is attacking the very existence of USADA as a viable antidoping actor. If he wins he creates a template for future cheaters to emulate as well as a symbol to future clean cyclists that antidoping enforcement is nothing more than a sick joke.

The hater business often evangelical. For many it is very much like a religion, because they think it is important to convert Lance-Believers into Lance-Non-Believers. It is difficult for me to see how more conversions will be effected by more leaks. There is already sufficient information out there to convince anybody who looks at the facts that Lance doped to win. So the target audience for more leaks is either (a) people too stupid to piece together the obvious; (b) people too biased to piece together the obvious; or (c) people who don't care. More leaks have no hope of convincing the stupid and don't matter for the uncaring. So, seems to me, more leaks is just one more assault on the soul of the fanboys and fangirls. It seems to me that the arbitration process itself affords more chance of effecting a fanboy/fangirl conversion than one more series of leaks.

I want to see the facts, but I'd hate to see Pat Heinie and Armstrong gut the antidoping process. That's why I prioritize the hearing process over the leaking of information.

I was referring to this earlier. I don't think Judge Sparks wants to be the guy who ends this process and forces some new, as to yet undeveloped process, or even worse, allow full constitutional protections and force doping cases into the courts. He won't do that.

I just don't see any way that Sparks lets the doping charges play out in a federal court. It would destroy the anti-doping process, and go against the Congressional mandate given to the USADA. That would be a pretty bold move, and one I just don't see him making...I don't think you would find a judge who would.

 

[Hugh Januss]

I was referring to this earlier. I don't think Judge Sparks wants to be the guy who ends this process and forces some new, as to yet undeveloped process, or even worse, allow full constitutional protections and force doping cases into the courts. He won't do that.

I just don't see any way that Sparks lets the doping charges play out in a federal court. It would destroy the anti-doping process, and go against the Congressional mandate given to the USADA. That would be a pretty bold move, and one I just don't see him making...I don't think you would find a judge who would.

I really hope you're right, and find some comfort in the fact that you are ......more often than you aren't.

 

[Hugh Januss]

Public exposure of the USPS Conspiracy is highly desirable, but it ought not be valued more than a completed USADA arbitration process.

Armstrong is attacking the very existence of USADA as a viable antidoping actor. If he wins he creates a template for future cheaters to emulate as well as a symbol to future clean cyclists that antidoping enforcement is nothing more than a sick joke.

The hater business often evangelical. For many it is very much like a religion, because they think it is important to convert Lance-Believers into Lance-Non-Believers. It is difficult for me to see how more conversions will be effected by more leaks. There is already sufficient information out there to convince anybody who looks at the facts that Lance doped to win. So the target audience for more leaks is either (a) people too stupid to piece together the obvious; (b) people too biased to piece together the obvious; or (c) people who don't care. More leaks have no hope of convincing the stupid and don't matter for the uncaring. So, seems to me, more leaks is just one more assault on the soul of the fanboys and fangirls. It seems to me that the arbitration process itself affords more chance of effecting a fanboy/fangirl conversion than one more series of leaks.

I want to see the facts, but I'd hate to see Pat Heinie and Armstrong gut the antidoping process. That's why I prioritize the hearing process over the leaking of information.

Never thought I'd say this, I agree with Mark.

 

[MarkvW]

I was referring to this earlier. I don't think Judge Sparks wants to be the guy who ends this process and forces some new, as to yet undeveloped process, or even worse, allow full constitutional protections and force doping cases into the courts. He won't do that.

I just don't see any way that Sparks lets the doping charges play out in a federal court. It would destroy the anti-doping process, and go against the Congressional mandate given to the USADA. That would be a pretty bold move, and one I just don't see him making...I don't think you would find a judge who would.

I'd be shocked if the case wasn't dismissed for want of jurisdiction.

 

[mewmewmew13]

I agree it seems very hard for the judge to deny USADA jurisdiction, but:

What if...
a. Sparks does rule for LA, i.e. that USADA has no right to run this process
b. It becomes a Federal matter as you say, but...
c. The Feds look at this and say: we reviewed this evidence earlier in the year. Not enough to run with. And...
d. Nothing ensues

Please tell me that c/d is an impossible chain of events.

This is a fallacy and it desperately gets repeated.
The judge shut the case down cold and this was not his reason.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

But wasn't that the intention of "From Lance to Landis" ...Haven't read Game of Shadows, but didn't the majority of the perps walk, granted with tainted reputations....

Walk, yes. But the government in the case redacted all the names in the documents. Hence, the documents all said "a baseball player noted..." "A track athlete tested positive..." the entire thing was made into a mockery and the players were all going to get off completely unscathed, reputation in tact.

When the GJ docs were leaked, the two authors put the puzzle together, and presented it to the public in a very detailed, well written, and very damning book based mostly on GJ testimony. This book was read by many, and discussed all over sports everywhere. Including grotesque details on things like Bonds head size growing. It was a death knell to Bonds and completely turned the tide against any claims of clean playing he had. His later walking from federal charges hardly changed a thing. He's known as one of the worst dopers in sports history, and despite all his records, he'll never make it into the hall of fame and remains the poster child of steroids in baseball. That is what his reputation is.

I want to see the facts, but I'd hate to see Pat Heinie and Armstrong gut the antidoping process. That's why I prioritize the hearing process over the leaking of information.

I understand your concerns Mark, and I too want to see that first. I'm just pessimistic that it will ever come to light. While I see the judge ruling against Armstrong initially, I see a great deal of closed door hearings and sealed docs down the line, after the months maybe years of lawsuits and appeals play out. I can even see Armstrong "losing" in the end, and all docs being sealed, with facts buried in reams of what legal documents are released, and him saying he was victimized, and playing that card and many people believing him. I saw through the days, weeks, months of "any day now" waiting for a federal indictment, and he pulled enough strings to walk away from that scot free, without a scratch. So I'm not exactly optimistic here. I'm actually frankly more surprised several of you don't fear the same outcome as I.

While leaking everything isn't ideal, assuming the worst - that the case gets completely bogged down or sealed, I think a well written documentation of all the GJ and USADA info by a respected journalist showing just how much of a dirty cheat Armstrong was would have a strong impact on his ability to gain any assistance from anyone, or resurrect his image, which is what he bases everything on. That would essentially vaporize as he becomes toxic, as BroDeal said. It could essentially ruin him, the way it ruined Bonds. Actually worse, as Lance has more to lose.

 

[red_flanders]

Armstrong is attacking the very existence of USADA as a viable antidoping actor. If he wins he creates a template for future cheaters to emulate as well as a symbol to future clean cyclists that antidoping enforcement is nothing more than a sick joke.

This.

This is the core of why this needs to go forward. Armstrong winning at this point would deal a huge, possibly unrecoverable blow to the sport just when it's getting closer than I've seen in a long time to a believable endeavor.

 

[BroDeal]

It would be a civil matter if the court for some strange reason believed Armstrong deserved a trial in Federal court regarding his doping, because what he did isn't a criminal offense. There would therefore be two parties, and neither would be the Federal government, so what happened with the investigation would be irrelevant.

Let's say it did end up in civil court. Would it give the USADA more tools to gather and present evidence. Could they use subpoena power to get some of the evidence gathered by the feds?

 

[thehog]

I want to see the facts, but I'd hate to see Pat Heinie and Armstrong gut the antidoping process. That's why I prioritize the hearing process over the leaking of information.

This.

Aside from the legal jousting it’s a fairly horrendous activity going on by Armstrong/UCI. You’re right. If successful the UCI stands to destroy the anti-doping framework in the US. Is that what they really want to do? Pat must be under a lot of pressure to be doing what he’s doing.

 

[Race Radio]

Public opinion of Wonderboy is dropping fast. Only 10% of people who know who he is view him favorably.

and now it looks like 77% of his Twitter followers are fake or dead

 

[henryg]

This.

Aside from the legal jousting it’s a fairly horrendous activity going on by Armstrong/UCI. You’re right. If successful the UCI stands to destroy the anti-doping framework in the US. Is that what they really want to do? Pat must be under a lot of pressure to be doing what he’s doing.

Not just the USA. Pat is claiming a WADA vendetta against cycling. They want to bring down the whole Olympic anti-doping framework to prevent it from exposing them. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

 

[MarkvW]

I'm not worried about Armstrong v. Tygart and USADA.

Next, a UCI/USAC lawsuit vs. USADA/WADA is possible. But why hasn't that happened already? UCI might not want discovery obligations in such a case, plus they might not want to irrevocably break with WADA.

Other than such a lawsuit, nothing is going to disturb USADA.

Then, there's CAS, where anything can happen.

Then I expect the UCI and USAC to do everything possible to undermine and suppress the outcome.

Then, I hope there will be a big leak.

 

[MacRoadie]

Then, I hope there will be a big leak.

I've said this a few times now: I'm guessing that at some point, as this gets bigger and bigger and more organizations/agencies are involved, with all their attendant employees, etc, that a huge Julian Assange-type leak becomes more and more of a possibility.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Then, I hope there will be a big leak.

That's the spirit!

 

[TheMight]

That seems like the very last thing Lance would ever want to reveal as that means admitting a positive test.
Perhaps his end game plan is to go down fighting, having made the point that USADA's investigation is a witch hunt and that they were out to get him all along. Eventually loosing some or all of his tour wins after a closed arbitration hearing, which he finally agrees to, but only with the caveat that the records stay sealed. He can then continue with a certain large part of public opinion still on the side of his being railroaded and wrongfully stripped of his wins.
Maybe not a great outcome as far as he's concerned, but much better than actually having to confess all.

I don't see him planning like this, there is no plan b, it doesn't seem characteristic. He could have just not responded and let them do what they did to Ferrari and company. If that was acceptable, he also could have just closed up shop, moved abroad and became private. If he planned like that, would they have botched their first filing? He got ****ed, he got emotional, he pounded the table and told his lawyers to fix it.

Is there realistically evidence of fixing a test at TdS? If there is and it's more than hearsay, I think it would end the sport as we currently know it, is there any way it could survive?

It's has also been suggested that perhaps certain riders or teams had some insight in to the testing schedule or something along those lines. This is incrementally less, but if there is any real evidence beyond hearsay I could see the sport being forever altered by it. I could see some very real law suits too, more than a few riders have had their careers ended and lives altered due to positive tests.

With only hearsay, these things fall down to me, Lance might have just been talking himself up to sound more connected. Dudes just say stuff some times and he wanted to be 'the boss.' As fans there may be some soul searching if a number of top riders all make those claims but realistically what happens? USADA not just shouldn't trust UCI to handle the case, they should be beating the drum that USA Cycling needs to go and that we need to stop doing anything with UCI. I think USADA would have very good reason to get the IoC to stop recognizing UCI, immediately. Forget stupid public letters being exchanged, refuse to acknowledge UCI if they are that illegitimate.. It's much bigger than just Lance if there is any real evidence of these issues.

Just being pragmatic here, what is realistic and stands up with only witness testimony? The brainstorm I've been kicking around is that other riders have confessed to UCI and nothing happened. It seems about consistent with their level of competence. Maybe there are some other issues in that vein or something similar. Routine reports of riders doping and just nothing happening?

 

[ChewbaccaD]

I'd be shocked if the case wasn't dismissed for want of jurisdiction.

I would be as equally shocked. I just can't see anyway the court has jurisdiction. I hope I'm not missing something.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

I really hope you're right, and find some comfort in the fact that you are ......more often than you aren't.

I'll take a .750 average any day... I just hope that is close to my actual average.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Let's say it did end up in civil court. Would it give the USADA more tools to gather and present evidence. Could they use subpoena power to get some of the evidence gathered by the feds?

They can subpoena people now. As for the evidence, I don't think the feds are under any obligation to turn over anything, and I don't thing a civil case would change that. The uncertainties of how a proceeding like that would develop is one of the reasons I don't think a Federal court wants to touch this with a 10 foot pole.

From my read of the confidence level presented in everything the USADA has done, I don't think they need another piece of paper to prove their case.

 

[Velodude]

I'm not worried about Armstrong v. Tygart and USADA.

Next, a UCI/USAC lawsuit vs. USADA/WADA is possible. But why hasn't that happened already? UCI might not want discovery obligations in such a case, plus they might not want to irrevocably break with WADA.

Other than such a lawsuit, nothing is going to disturb USADA.

Then, there's CAS, where anything can happen.

Then I expect the UCI and USAC to do everything possible to undermine and suppress the outcome.

Then, I hope there will be a big leak.

If they had wished to muddy the waters for Sparks J Armstrong & cohorts would have, behind the scenes, from the outset arranged for UCI and USAC to file briefs as court acceptable amicus curiae in challenging USADA's position.

Armstrong's lawyers must have had supreme confidence in their strategy to delay and beat USADA into submission with longer pockets not to exercise all delaying options.

And we all know that UCI has a cache of substantial funds off balance sheet with the Japanese Keiran crowd from that Olympic bribe so as not to call up a further donation from LA (a la Vrijman Report in 2006).

Ah, but 20/20 hindsight is a wonderful tool!

 

[Weapons of @ss Destruction]

Yet another LA thread about the top the million view count. That's twelve really dedicated people with a lot of time for a lot of clicks.