What made you change your mind on Gilbert? That he had a great run of form and won 4 races in a row? Gilbert always came across to me as a mad attacking rider, always trying to be in a break, or put in a late attack and try and stay away from the bunch. I wasn't so surprised that he won the Giro di Lomardia, since winning L-B-L has always been a target for him and a race he is suited too (that and L-B-L is his home race).
As for Wiggins, what makes it interesting is that his old boss at Credit Agricole, Roger Legeay, always knew he was capable of riding high in GC of a major Tour (go read the latest issue of Pro Cycling Magazine, Legeay says so right there), even when he was riding for Cradit Agricole, which he was riding on the track at the time. The impression they gave me was, stop riding on the velodrome, focus on the road and drop some weight and then he improves. Either that, or they saw his potential as a super responder on a medical program.