Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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This is almost like watching the 2013 Giro all over again without the snow of course. Nibali has no trouble reacting to attacks and seems to have no trouble attacking and making the gap. I expect him to put a few more minutes into the field and if he does lose time in the TT, it will be to Tony Martin, possibly Costa or TJVG but he will put time into Bardet, Pinot, Valverde etc. No wonder people have enjoyed the Vuelta so much in the past few years as the last three Tours and last two Giros were decided a long way from the finish. The way Nibali is riding I am convinced he would have been good enough to battle it out with Froome and Contador. He has improved a lot since the 2012 Tour and rarely has a bad day. Just a complete rider now like Froome and Contador.
 
movingtarget said:
This is almost like watching the 2013 Giro all over again without the snow of course. Nibali has no trouble reacting to attacks and seems to have no trouble attacking and making the gap. I expect him to put a few more minutes into the field and if he does lose time in the TT, it will be to Tony Martin, possibly Costa or TJVG but he will put time into Bardet, Pinot, Valverde etc. No wonder people have enjoyed the Vuelta so much in the past few years as the last three Tours and last two Giros were decided a long way from the finish. The way Nibali is riding I am convinced he would have been good enough to battle it out with Froome and Contador. He has improved a lot since the 2012 Tour and rarely has a bad day. Just a complete rider now like Froome and Contador.
Yea, but he would have been dropped by them in the mountains in my opinion. Against a top form Froome or AC, the Italian simply doesn't have the fire power to stay with them. As good as he is right now, just that little bit of extra puntch we saw by AC before the catastrophe, means the Spaniard would have won this Tour by at least 2 minutes on Nibali and 8-9 on all the rest. Considering this was an AC in epic form.
 
Apr 16, 2014
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movingtarget said:
This is almost like watching the 2013 Giro all over again without the snow of course. Nibali has no trouble reacting to attacks and seems to have no trouble attacking and making the gap. I expect him to put a few more minutes into the field and if he does lose time in the TT, it will be to Tony Martin, possibly Costa or TJVG but he will put time into Bardet, Pinot, Valverde etc. No wonder people have enjoyed the Vuelta so much in the past few years as the last three Tours and last two Giros were decided a long way from the finish. The way Nibali is riding I am convinced he would have been good enough to battle it out with Froome and Contador. He has improved a lot since the 2012 Tour and rarely has a bad day. Just a complete rider now like Froome and Contador.
Almost entirely agree with your post, movingtarget - especially agree with the part I bolded. It would have been quite a battle had Contador and Froome been able to stay in the race, however, from what we have seen, I believe Nibali would have beat Froome. Also think he would have come close to beating Contador - we will never know for sure. As it turns out, Contador had an unfortunate moment on stage 10 and his Tour was done; Froome could not handle the conditions on stage 5. This tour is not over, there is still ample opportunity for bad luck to strike, but I predict Nibali's great bike handling, and alert, confident performance continues to the top step in Paris.
 
Jan 24, 2012
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pigoonse said:
Almost entirely agree with your post, movingtarget - especially agree with the part I bolded. It would have been quite a battle had Contador and Froome been able to stay in the race, however, from what we have seen, I believe Nibali would have beat Froome. Also think he would have come close to beating Contador - we will never know for sure. As it turns out, Contador had an unfortunate moment on stage 10 and his Tour was done; Froome could not handle the conditions on stage 5. This tour is not over, there is still ample opportunity for bad luck to strike, but I predict Nibali's great bike handling, and alert, confident performance continues to the top step in Paris.
I think it really just comes down to riding conservatively, that is all he needs to do to guarantee victory. If he rides carefully the only thing that could stop him is bad luck since he is significantly better than his opponents so far.

But Nibali is a showman, he likes to attack, to entertain, and I expect he will continue to do so. I think he might toss out attacking on the the stage 16(?) downhill, but possibly a small attack tomorrow and I bet he'll go for Hautacam(sp?).

Assuming Nibali wins the Tour, I wonder what next year holds. Will he defend his TdF? Or will he return to the Giro? My dream, Nibali versus Contador versus Quintana at the Giro. Sadly, it is extremely unlikely. :(
 
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Sciocco said:
I think it really just comes down to riding conservatively, that is all he needs to do to guarantee victory. If he rides carefully the only thing that could stop him is bad luck since he is significantly better than his opponents so far.

But Nibali is a showman, he likes to attack, to entertain, and I expect he will continue to do so. I think he might toss out attacking on the the stage 16(?) downhill, but possibly a small attack tomorrow and I bet he'll go for Hautacam(sp?).

Assuming Nibali wins the Tour, I wonder what next year holds. Will he defend his TdF? Or will he return to the Giro? My dream, Nibali versus Contador versus Quintana at the Giro. Sadly, it is extremely unlikely. :(
Riding conservatively is the sensible thing to do but we are talking about Lo Squalo :cool: and he is the showman. He puts his heart and soul into his performances and that is why I love Nibali, the bike racer. He is going to go for it with a show of crazy great skills and courage. Makes me a bit nervous for him after all the crashes this TdF. My guess is that he attacks that downhill just because he can :D

And yes, I like your dream of a three-way at the Giro: Contador, Quintana and Nibs :D
 
Nov 16, 2011
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I think Nibali would have had a hard time matching the constant attacks of Contador and Froome, assuming both were in top shape. He would be distanced and while certainly stronger than the others, be forced back into the Tejay et all group to not get redlined, then drill it back up again towards the end of the climb to get time.
 
May 19, 2011
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rhubroma said:
Yea, but he would have been dropped by them in the mountains in my opinion. Against a top form Froome or AC, the Italian simply doesn't have the fire power to stay with them. As good as he is right now, just that little bit of extra puntch we saw by AC before the catastrophe, means the Spaniard would have won this Tour by at least 2 minutes on Nibali and 8-9 on all the rest. Considering this was an AC in epic form.
Epic my as*, from a hill top three second difference (not to mention the gear issue), you can conclude Spaniard would won the Tour at least 2 min, and 8-9 on all other. Wow, just wow. What happens if Nibali put 10 mins into the rest of the field at the end of the Tour, according to your master logical calculation, VN actually is ahead of AC by one min. LMAO. Why don't you just stop at stage 8 and gave the yellow jersey to AC already (of course in your head). The fact is we don't really know what kind of form AC is in, so u can claim whatever you want to claim and prove something unprovable. And the fact remains Nibali is the one on his way to collect the yellow jersey in the Paris. Reality must be harsh for someone to deal with.
 
rhubroma said:
Yea, but he would have been dropped by them in the mountains in my opinion. Against a top form Froome or AC, the Italian simply doesn't have the fire power to stay with them. As good as he is right now, just that little bit of extra puntch we saw by AC before the catastrophe, means the Spaniard would have won this Tour by at least 2 minutes on Nibali and 8-9 on all the rest. Considering this was an AC in epic form.
I don't think that two seconds lost by Nibali on the top of a hill indicates anything. AC was in great form but there had to be some doubts about Froome. Contador still had to make up over two minutes. I'm not saying that Nibali definitely would have won, I just don't think Contador would have ridden away with it. I think it would have been a battle and it's too bad the three way battle that everyone wanted to see never happened.
 
Sciocco said:
I think it really just comes down to riding conservatively, that is all he needs to do to guarantee victory. If he rides carefully the only thing that could stop him is bad luck since he is significantly better than his opponents so far.

But Nibali is a showman, he likes to attack, to entertain, and I expect he will continue to do so. I think he might toss out attacking on the the stage 16(?) downhill, but possibly a small attack tomorrow and I bet he'll go for Hautacam(sp?).

Assuming Nibali wins the Tour, I wonder what next year holds. Will he defend his TdF? Or will he return to the Giro? My dream, Nibali versus Contador versus Quintana at the Giro. Sadly, it is extremely unlikely. :(
I think Nibali will be back. The Tour is still the biggest bike race in the world and he knows there will be a certain amount of criticism if he wins without Contador and Froome in the race. The four way battle next year could be epic as long as crashes don't spoil expectations. Not to mention some of the younger riders also improving. Rodriguez should do the Giro. It might be his last chance to win a GT but he would still have to beat Aru and possibly Uran and Majka. Won't be easy. Time bonuses would help him.
 
Apr 16, 2014
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Not to get my hopes up too high, but when I first looked at stage 16's profile, I thought about how great a Nibali stage it could be, thinking he would be behind Contador by a bit and he could get some seconds on that descent. But at this point, it is my fingers that are crossed that everyone makes it safely to the finish in good shape. :)
 
Jun 21, 2010
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Nibali is poised to become 1 of 5 Grand Tour Triple Crown winners. While he might be closer to Gimondi in terms of overall cycling legend than Merckx/Hinault/Anquetil, the man deserves the respect his potential achievement deserves. In my opinion, this respect includes a cessation of comments to the effect that 'Contador would have beaten him . . . if he hadn't crashed out when he was down 2:30 to Nibali and was passing competitors on the downhill in the rain.'
 
Jan 24, 2012
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warmfuzzies said:
Nibali is poised to become 1 of 5 Grand Tour Triple Crown winners. While he might be closer to Gimondi in terms of overall cycling legend than Merckx/Hinault/Anquetil, the man deserves the respect his potential achievement deserves. In my opinion, this respect includes a cessation of comments to the effect that 'Contador would have beaten him . . . if he hadn't crashed out when he was down 2:30 to Nibali and was passing competitors on the downhill in the rain.'
He'll definitely be making it 6!

Are you saying cycling fans should not speculate, discuss & argue in a discussion forum?

Perhaps we should just all mindlessly praise Nibali...

pigoonse said:
Not to get my hopes up too high, but when I first looked at stage 16's profile, I thought about how great a Nibali stage it could be, thinking he would be behind Contador by a bit and he could get some seconds on that descent. But at this point, it is my fingers that are crossed that everyone makes it safely to the finish in good shape. :)
Same here, the problems now are: He won't need the time and Even if it is a very small chance that Nibali would fall on a descent, it is just not worth it.

I think he still might have a go though! :D
 
Froome and Contador up until now have been beaten fair and square.
DEAL
WITH
IT.

Have they been DSQ? No
Were they caught in clinic things? No
Did someone make them crash? No FFS

DEAL
WITH
IT.

Enough is enough. If they can't handle certain conditions, blame on them. That's pro cycling for you.
 
Pippo_San said:
Froome and Contador up until now have been beaten fair and square.
DEAL
WITH
IT.

Have they been DSQ? No
Were they caught in clinic things? No
Did someone make them crash? No FFS

DEAL
WITH
IT.

Enough is enough. If they can't handle certain conditions, blame on them. That's pro cycling for you.
Wow, calm down.
 
maxmartin said:
Epic my as*, from a hill top three second difference (not to mention the gear issue), you can conclude Spaniard would won the Tour at least 2 min, and 8-9 on all other. Wow, just wow. What happens if Nibali put 10 mins into the rest of the field at the end of the Tour, according to your master logical calculation, VN actually is ahead of AC by one min. LMAO. Why don't you just stop at stage 8 and gave the yellow jersey to AC already (of course in your head). The fact is we don't really know what kind of form AC is in, so u can claim whatever you want to claim and prove something unprovable. And the fact remains Nibali is the one on his way to collect the yellow jersey in the Paris. Reality must be harsh for someone to deal with.
All I was saying is that I think Contador would have even been stronger than Nibali in the mountains and, based on this year, would have gotten in the lead.

Considering how well Nibali is going against all the rest, my estimation on how much time Contador would have gained on the field had he managed to stay in the race.

Of course mine is also wishful thinking, because alas we will never know. But this was the sensation I got.
 
movingtarget said:
I don't think that two seconds lost by Nibali on the top of a hill indicates anything. AC was in great form but there had to be some doubts about Froome. Contador still had to make up over two minutes. I'm not saying that Nibali definitely would have won, I just don't think Contador would have ridden away with it. I think it would have been a battle and it's too bad the three way battle that everyone wanted to see never happened.
I think it was more signifant than you give it credit, simply because I think the Italian was at his limit. Thus three seconds, yes, isn't much, but it gave us an inkling as to what might have played out on the much longer and difficult climbs.

If Contador was indeed in the best form of his life, then Nibali would have been scrambling to hold the Spaniard's wheel. The only thing that I think can't be determined, is whether or not Contador would have actually been able to sustain the gaps. For Nibali is certainly at a very good level, but nobody currently in the race has been able to put him under real pressure. Thus we can't also know how he would have reacted under such circumstances.
 
Oct 17, 2011
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Some fans seem to think that Contador would have taken significant time on Nibali in the mountains but in reality thy would be very close.

Question to Ferrari:

iven your estimation of Nibali's power to weight at AT4 (6.9w/kg) , do you think he would have matched froome and contador on summit finishes?
Thanks

Nibali always showed an excellent endurance,
suggesting a good genetic lipid power, but sure he trained a lot around 2 mM of lactate on long climbs at altitude.
His AT4 should be very close to Contador and Froome
 
Jul 13, 2010
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Also, Contador thought they were racing for the stage win.

I'm also fairly sure Bertie/TS would've bossed this Tour (with no Froome), but no point in arguing what cannot be verified.
 
rhubroma said:
I think it was more signifant then you give it credit, simply because I think the Italian was at his limit. Thus three seconds, yes, isn't much, but it gave us an inkling as to what might have played out on the much longer and difficult climbs.

If Contador was indeed in the best form of his life, then Nibali would have been scrambling to hold the Spaniard's wheel. The only thing that I think can't be determined, is whether or not Contador would have actually been able to sustain the gaps. For Nibali is certainly at a very good level, but nobody currently in the race has been able to put him under real pressure. Thus we can't also know how he would have reacted under such circumstances.
This debate can go on forever. And some people tend to forget deliberately that in the competition was also Froome. So if we go by the logic what if, he has to be in the equation. Regarding that stage, it was a steep uphill sprint, Contador was going for the stage, Nibs cracked in the last 50m. Nothing to show he could not hold his wheel on different climbs, like yesterdays or PdBF.

One of my favorite quotes this year, hear again what Wiggo said when Bertie was still in the race:

"I think Nibali will win the Tour, he's my favourite. If he goes as well as he did when he won the Giro last year, if he's got the same condition, I think he's unbeatable."
 

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