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Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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Re: Nibali discussion thread

Tonton said:
Nibali publicly stated his feelings about Aru, feels disrespected. I'd like to know the dynamics and allegiances within the team. I feel strongly (but I could be wrong), that Nibali will spoil Aru's chances at the TdF.

I think Nibali hates Froome more than Aru :D

Anyway, Nibali's not an idiot. Unless he genuinely thinks he can do the Giro-Tour double, he'll go stage hunting and put in a half-arsed attempt at helping Aru the rest of the time
 
Re: Nibali discussion thread

PremierAndrew said:
Tonton said:
Nibali publicly stated his feelings about Aru, feels disrespected. I'd like to know the dynamics and allegiances within the team. I feel strongly (but I could be wrong), that Nibali will spoil Aru's chances at the TdF.

I think Nibali hates Froome more than Aru :D

Anyway, Nibali's not an idiot. Unless he genuinely thinks he can do the Giro-Tour double, he'll go stage hunting and put in a half-arsed attempt at helping Aru the rest of the time

Let's say he dislikes Froome more. In theory he is doing this Tour with the same intent as Valverde to reach the peak for the Olympics but while Alejandro said it loud and clear that he'll be in France to help Nairo and with no intentions for GC, Nibali was ambiguous. Yesterday's declaration of Aru saying that they will be co-leaders raises more questions. I don't think it's neither possible nor desirable for Nibali to go for GC in Le Tour given he raced the Giro and that Rio is far more important in his career now but on the road many things can change. If he doesn't loose time in the first week or so, if he seizes an opportunity for an attack that will stick given all the other favorites watch each other, if Aru has a misfortune or simply doesn't have the legs at some point loosing minutes then I think he might consider fighting for a good placement in GC. So, I think he will do a parallel race to Aru rather than doing gregario duties but either way I think it will be fun in July.
 
Re:

Miburo said:
Don't sell Nibali short. He doesn't care about a good placement if it's not the W.

Idk about you, but a good placement would be a big achievement in the Tour given that he's doing the double. For example, if he were to finish 4th, that's the closest in terms of finishing position since Pantani actually achieved it IIRC. Pretty big achievement if you ask me.

And I mean, thoeretically, it is possible. Given how bad he was for a lot of the Giro, it can't have taken too much out of him, and he should be relatively fresh
 
If Aru can't do better than 4th place, possibly 3rd, I believe Nibali will help him (assuming he doesn't have the condition to be better than Aru). But if by some miracle Aru gets in the fight for the win, I highly doubt that Nibali would help him that much.
 
Re: Re:

PremierAndrew said:
Miburo said:
Don't sell Nibali short. He doesn't care about a good placement if it's not the W.

Idk about you, but a good placement would be a big achievement in the Tour given that he's doing the double. For example, if he were to finish 4th, that's the closest in terms of finishing position since Pantani actually achieved it IIRC. Pretty big achievement if you ask me.

And I mean, thoeretically, it is possible. Given how bad he was for a lot of the Giro, it can't have taken too much out of him, and he should be relatively fresh

Yes, it is possible. I would imagine he would need some luck, but Nibali isn't adverse to receiving that.

I like your point about him being relatively fresh from the Giro. He really only hit his peak during the final few days. Contrast this to Contador last year, and he was losing strength during the same period. I always felt that Contador went about the double attempt all wrong. I mean, you need to hit a peak in May and July, and yet you go to Adanlucia in February in GOOD form. From memory Alberto was also competitive in the GC in T-A and P-V too; not exactly a slow build up. I've wondered if the double would be more realistic if a rider started his racing season really late. Rock up to Trentino and lose minutes on those climbs, but get some racing miles in the legs. Then improve in Romandie, maybe sneak a top ten in GC. Then go for the Giro, but with the aim of using the first week as further prep. The same with the TDF itself. You've won the Giro, and you ease back into racing with a - hopefully - relatively easy first week in July. In that way you are having approximately four weeks of peak racing. How is that hugely different to a rider who wins two or three one week races and a GT?

So yeah, Nibali might surprise some and be relatively competitive this July.
 
Jul 29, 2012
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Normally his shape won't be better than in the giro right? I mean he would defy all logic, i think we can all agree on that.

He'll never top 3 with that shape in the tour, maybe top 5 if he's lucky. That's all assuming he'll have the same shape which is very unlikely and his shape was already *** in the giro for the most part.

Maybe he would care about podium but i think that's impossible to achieve, maybe if he gets really lucky. You never know then but all considering, it's way better to go for stages.
 
Re: Nibali discussion thread

Rollthedice said:
PremierAndrew said:
Tonton said:
Nibali publicly stated his feelings about Aru, feels disrespected. I'd like to know the dynamics and allegiances within the team. I feel strongly (but I could be wrong), that Nibali will spoil Aru's chances at the TdF.

I think Nibali hates Froome more than Aru :D

Anyway, Nibali's not an idiot. Unless he genuinely thinks he can do the Giro-Tour double, he'll go stage hunting and put in a half-arsed attempt at helping Aru the rest of the time

Let's say he dislikes Froome more. In theory he is doing this Tour with the same intent as Valverde to reach the peak for the Olympics but while Alejandro said it loud and clear that he'll be in France to help Nairo and with no intentions for GC, Nibali was ambiguous. Yesterday's declaration of Aru saying that they will be co-leaders raises more questions. I don't think it's neither possible nor desirable for Nibali to go for GC in Le Tour given he raced the Giro and that Rio is far more important in his career now but on the road many things can change. If he doesn't loose time in the first week or so, if he seizes an opportunity for an attack that will stick given all the other favorites watch each other, if Aru has a misfortune or simply doesn't have the legs at some point loosing minutes then I think he might consider fighting for a good placement in GC. So, I think he will do a parallel race to Aru rather than doing gregario duties but either way I think it will be fun in July.

Good post, I agree on all points.

Sam, whats more likely: Nibali looking back and seeing young Fabu isn't there, Majka with Contador, Landa with Froome or Valverde with Quintana? Either way situations like that are always a blast.
 
I expect Nibali to better than Contador at the Tour last year. He finished very strong in the Giro, and seems to come out of it as fresh as you could come out of a tough Giro. Contador last year was totally exhausted, his form was going down, so his recovery was worse, etc. However, I don't think he'll be able to be as good as if he hadn't gone to the Giro, which is why he won't win unless the other guys crash out. Would be cool if he'd light up the race for stage wins or big GC attacks rather than hang on for dear life.
 
Re:

Red Rick said:
I expect Nibali to better than Contador at the Tour last year. He finished very strong in the Giro, and seems to come out of it as fresh as you could come out of a tough Giro. Contador last year was totally exhausted, his form was going down, so his recovery was worse, etc. However, I don't think he'll be able to be as good as if he hadn't gone to the Giro, which is why he won't win unless the other guys crash out. Would be cool if he'd light up the race for stage wins or big GC attacks rather than hang on for dear life.
In other words, you predict Nibali with the Giro in the legs to do better in the Tour than in 2015?

I'll be very much surprised if Nibs won't start bleeding time intentionally in the week 1 yet.
 
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Re:

Red Rick said:
I expect Nibali to better than Contador at the Tour last year. He finished very strong in the Giro, and seems to come out of it as fresh as you could come out of a tough Giro. Contador last year was totally exhausted, his form was going down, so his recovery was worse, etc. However, I don't think he'll be able to be as good as if he hadn't gone to the Giro, which is why he won't win unless the other guys crash out. Would be cool if he'd light up the race for stage wins or big GC attacks rather than hang on for dear life.

Basso ended the giro of 2010 strong, what happened with him in the tour?

Quintana ended the tour last year strong, yet in the vuelta only 4th. With 90% of that tour form he would have already won it.
 
Re: Re:

Miburo said:
Red Rick said:
I expect Nibali to better than Contador at the Tour last year. He finished very strong in the Giro, and seems to come out of it as fresh as you could come out of a tough Giro. Contador last year was totally exhausted, his form was going down, so his recovery was worse, etc. However, I don't think he'll be able to be as good as if he hadn't gone to the Giro, which is why he won't win unless the other guys crash out. Would be cool if he'd light up the race for stage wins or big GC attacks rather than hang on for dear life.

Basso ended the giro of 2010 strong, what happened with him in the tour?

Quintana ended the tour last year strong, yet in the vuelta only 4th. With 90% of that tour form he would have already won it.
agreed, Menchov of 2009 comes to mind too. I don't think Nibali believes in himself to the necessary extent to compete against fresh big guns in the Tour, not to mention about his physical form.

It's a trap of the second gt in modern cycling. You cannot be at 90% of form after doing a gt before.
 
Re: Re:

PremierAndrew said:
Miburo said:
Don't sell Nibali short. He doesn't care about a good placement if it's not the W.

Idk about you, but a good placement would be a big achievement in the Tour given that he's doing the double. For example, if he were to finish 4th, that's the closest in terms of finishing position since Pantani actually achieved it IIRC. Pretty big achievement if you ask me.

And I mean, thoeretically, it is possible. Given how bad he was for a lot of the Giro, it can't have taken too much out of him, and he should be relatively fresh

That would mean he would outride one of the big three with a Giro in his legs. I just don't see it happening unless something (crash or injury) happens to one of them. It's a very, very tall task. I really can't see how he can get away with it otherwise. The only other way is him getting away in a break and gaining time and I really don't see Sky or Movistar allowing with the horses they're bringing to the Tour.