Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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Re: Re:

Rollthedice said:
Red Rick said:
bambino said:
He did exactly what I predicted before the stage.

Tomorrow is really crucial, Bahrain needs to have the team well place to hit that Murito as the steepest section is in the 1st km. If he can stay with Froome/Berto that first hit, there will be a chance that he wont't get dropped at all, or less than 10 sec.

The goal has to be that the deficit stays under minute to Froome after Muritos.
Froome's not gonna go on the first hit. Froome will do as he did the last time they did Cumbre del Sol. I'd say sit on Froome's wheel all the way up to when Froome takes off and then limit the damage.
Might not be too smart if Froome will deploy the atomic yoyo.
I think it actually would be smart if he can do it. I don't think others matter too much, the key is the fight against Froome.
 
Task for today is clear. Limit the loses to maximal 15-20 seconds. Ideally he can keep the overall gap within 1 minute.
In the next 2 weeks he needs to take back time but being one minute down + losing about 1:30 in the time trial means he needs to take back at least 2:30. His best chances are stage 15 and 17 and maybe the Angliru if Froome is declining in the 3rd week.
Seems close to impossible but considering the fact that Froome lost 2:40 against Quintana on a medium mountain stage last year because of bad positioning and a tired team Sky NIbali will have the chance to do the same.
Drop Froome early in the stage and find an ally to bury him and his team...sounds easier than it is but isn`t impossible.
 
Didn't look good at any point of the last climb. Pellizotti was even waiting for him to come to the front, but just couldn't.

Lost another 24s ich, so around 1:17 behind Froome. I think the game is over...
 
Re:

bambino said:
Didn't look good at any point of the last climb. Pellizotti was even waiting for him to come to the front, but just couldn't.

Lost another 24s ich, so around 1:17 behind Froome. I think the game is over...
I think distance wise he's pretty much where he was supposed to be, and from now on the race should suit his characteristics.
Mostly needs Froome to fade, otherwise it's about the podium of course.
 
Although he lost more time today he looks like he is slowly improving, he was only 2 seconds behind Contador. At the moment it looks like Froome, Chaves, Contador and Nibali will be the strongest in this race. Luckily the muritos are finally over and now it's on to the real mountains.
 
Re: Re:

Brullnux said:
bambino said:
Didn't look good at any point of the last climb. Pellizotti was even waiting for him to come to the front, but just couldn't.

Lost another 24s ich, so around 1:17 behind Froome. I think the game is over...
It was 14s plus bonus. 24s is misleading.
Well the bonus seconds do count to overall don't they?
 
Re: Re:

bambino said:
Brullnux said:
bambino said:
Didn't look good at any point of the last climb. Pellizotti was even waiting for him to come to the front, but just couldn't.

Lost another 24s ich, so around 1:17 behind Froome. I think the game is over...
It was 14s plus bonus. 24s is misleading.
Well the bonus seconds do count to overall don't they?
Yes, but saying he lost 24s sounds like he lost it on the road, which he didn't. His performance today being better than yesterday was my point.
 
Jun 25, 2015
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Re: Re:

Brullnux said:
bambino said:
Brullnux said:
bambino said:
Didn't look good at any point of the last climb. Pellizotti was even waiting for him to come to the front, but just couldn't.

Lost another 24s ich, so around 1:17 behind Froome. I think the game is over...
It was 14s plus bonus. 24s is misleading.
Well the bonus seconds do count to overall don't they?
Yes, but saying he lost 24s sounds like he lost it on the road, which he didn't. His performance today being better than yesterday was my point.
Uhm. To me nibali was worse than yesterday where he put pellizzotti in front . And he rode in front in the first 4-5 positions
 
Re: Re:

Brullnux said:
bambino said:
Brullnux said:
bambino said:
Didn't look good at any point of the last climb. Pellizotti was even waiting for him to come to the front, but just couldn't.

Lost another 24s ich, so around 1:17 behind Froome. I think the game is over...
It was 14s plus bonus. 24s is misleading.
Well the bonus seconds do count to overall don't they?
Yes, but saying he lost 24s sounds like he lost it on the road, which he didn't. His performance today being better than yesterday was my point.
I said no-where in the post that he lost 24s in the road. But he lost 24s nevertheless.

Yesterday was longer climb with longer steep section and was driven very hard early on especially by Contador. Yet Nib's lost only 17s. Today he lost 14s in mere 900m in about 10% gradient. This was much worse than yesterday.
 
Re: Re:

Matteo. said:
Brullnux said:
bambino said:
Brullnux said:
bambino said:
Didn't look good at any point of the last climb. Pellizotti was even waiting for him to come to the front, but just couldn't.

Lost another 24s ich, so around 1:17 behind Froome. I think the game is over...
It was 14s plus bonus. 24s is misleading.
Well the bonus seconds do count to overall don't they?
Yes, but saying he lost 24s sounds like he lost it on the road, which he didn't. His performance today being better than yesterday was my point.
Uhm. To me nibali was worse than yesterday where he put pellizzotti in front . And he rode in front in the first 4-5 positions
I meant timewise
 
Would have been a good day if Froome didn`t get the 10s bonus. Without the team time trial he would be within 1 minute after the muritos. Lost 49s in real racing + the sprint and stage finish bonus for 6s ( not counting their stage wins. Losing 55s to Froome on 4 muritos is pretty good compared to Nibalis usual first week performances. The multi mountain stages in the 3rd week should suit Nibali and if Froome fades he has the best chances among the other contenders in my opinion. If Froome isn`t fading he will win the race without a doubt.
 
Re:

skippo12 said:
Would have been a good day if Froome didn`t get the 10s bonus. Without the team time trial he would be within 1 minute after the muritos. Lost 49s in real racing + the sprint and stage finish bonus for 6s ( not counting their stage wins. Losing 55s to Froome on 4 muritos is pretty good compared to Nibalis usual first week performances. The multi mountain stages in the 3rd week should suit Nibali and if Froome fades he has the best chances among the other contenders in my opinion. If Froome isn`t fading he will win the race without a doubt.
Froome fading is a narrative everyone seems throwing, but we haven't really seen him fading since 2012. And he is in so much better shape than i.e. last year.

I think Froome is going to win by +- 3 minutes, Nibs is still though in pole position for 2nd place.
 
Aug 6, 2015
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Re: Re:

bambino said:
skippo12 said:
Would have been a good day if Froome didn`t get the 10s bonus. Without the team time trial he would be within 1 minute after the muritos. Lost 49s in real racing + the sprint and stage finish bonus for 6s ( not counting their stage wins. Losing 55s to Froome on 4 muritos is pretty good compared to Nibalis usual first week performances. The multi mountain stages in the 3rd week should suit Nibali and if Froome fades he has the best chances among the other contenders in my opinion. If Froome isn`t fading he will win the race without a doubt.
Froome fading is a narrative everyone seems throwing, but we haven't really seen him fading since 2012. And he is in so much better shape than i.e. last year.

I think Froome is going to win by +- 3 minutes, Nibs is still though in pole position for 2nd place.
In the first week 2012 froome was stronger to the 2016 froome
 
Re: Re:

portugal11 said:
bambino said:
skippo12 said:
Would have been a good day if Froome didn`t get the 10s bonus. Without the team time trial he would be within 1 minute after the muritos. Lost 49s in real racing + the sprint and stage finish bonus for 6s ( not counting their stage wins. Losing 55s to Froome on 4 muritos is pretty good compared to Nibalis usual first week performances. The multi mountain stages in the 3rd week should suit Nibali and if Froome fades he has the best chances among the other contenders in my opinion. If Froome isn`t fading he will win the race without a doubt.
Froome fading is a narrative everyone seems throwing, but we haven't really seen him fading since 2012. And he is in so much better shape than i.e. last year.

I think Froome is going to win by +- 3 minutes, Nibs is still though in pole position for 2nd place.
In the first week 2012 froome was stronger to the 2016 froome
2012 he was monster in building. 5 years and bit more age is a heck of a time to improve your stamina and endurance.

Likewise as i.e. Contador is different rider compared to 2011/12 so is Froome. And Nibs as well btw.
 
Re: Re:

bambino said:
skippo12 said:
Would have been a good day if Froome didn`t get the 10s bonus. Without the team time trial he would be within 1 minute after the muritos. Lost 49s in real racing + the sprint and stage finish bonus for 6s ( not counting their stage wins. Losing 55s to Froome on 4 muritos is pretty good compared to Nibalis usual first week performances. The multi mountain stages in the 3rd week should suit Nibali and if Froome fades he has the best chances among the other contenders in my opinion. If Froome isn`t fading he will win the race without a doubt.
Froome fading is a narrative everyone seems throwing, but we haven't really seen him fading since 2012. And he is in so much better shape than i.e. last year.

I think Froome is going to win by +- 3 minutes, Nibs is still though in pole position for 2nd place.
We hope Froome will fade, mankind hopes the alien will fade but he has his own mysterious ways. In competition with his fellow earthlings Vincenzo is doing fine until now. The murito fest is over and starting Tuesday a more familiar territory will come. Heard some rain is predicted, maybe he'll lure the alien on a dangerous wet descent where anything can happen. Fight fino alla fine.
 
The pattern seems pretty clear: the longer the climbs, the better he is. His worst performances came on Ermita Santa Lucia and Cumbre del Sol, both short and explosive efforts.

His time on Xorret de Cati was around 20 seconds better than in 2010. His time on Cumbre del Sol very close to Purito's time in 2015. This tells me his shape is great, but he just can't follow the huge accelerations on short climbs.

I read somewhere that he said he's producing his highest watts ever. Don't know if I believe it. If this is true, his performances on long and multi mountain stages should be top notch.
 
Re:

SafeBet said:
The pattern seems pretty clear: the longer the climbs, the better he is. His worst performances came on Ermita Santa Lucia and Cumbre del Sol, both short and explosive efforts.

His time on Xorret de Cati was around 20 seconds better than in 2010. His time on Cumbre del Sol very close to Purito's time in 2015. This tells me his shape is great, but he just can't follow the huge accelerations on short climbs.

I read somewhere that he said he's producing his highest watts ever. Don't know if I believe it. If this is true, his performances on long and multi mountain stages should be top notch.
This is very likely the best Nibali has ever done on these types of efforts. However, the sample is pretty much limited to Vuelta's, as he's rarely done PV. Its also the strongest competition he's ever faced on this terrain.
 
So, tomorrow starts the crucial week for Nibali. Tomorrow a downhill finish after a tricky descent and later two mountain stages with at least two very serious climbs and both go over 2000 meters + a medium mountain stage on stage 12 which also looks quite good for him. The only mountain stages which doesn't suit him is the La Pandera stage and even that climb suits him better than any in this week. Moreover the weather in spain is getting worse for the next week.
 
Vincenzo says that everybody was flying, he hates the rest day, breaks the rhythm, did a two hour ride even with a little intensity added. Not happy with the time loss, ideally it would have been 30 seconds less to recover. About Froome, he says that he proved to be the most powerful, the most explosive, disarming... until now. Orica is the only team capable to isolate Froome.
 

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