Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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Oct 12, 2020
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I hope my feeling is wrong but I'm not optimistic for Nibali. Almeida, Kelderman and Pozzovivo all look pretty strong and they are all above him in the GC atm. I know the gaps are small but will Vincenzo be able to improve in the 3rd week ?

I'd be gutted if he doesn't win anyway, because I'm not sure he'll get a better chance at a 5th Grand Tour ever again.
 
I hope my feeling is wrong but I'm not optimistic for Nibali. Almeida, Kelderman and Pozzovivo all look pretty strong and they are all above him in the GC atm. I know the gaps are small but will Vincenzo be able to improve in the 3rd week ?

I'd be gutted if he doesn't win anyway, because I'm not sure he'll get a better chance at a 5th Grand Tour ever again.
I don't know how you can be worried about Vincenzo's 3rd week given he's done it year after year after year, especially when the people you're worried about are riders who have never really shown that ability.

It would take a massive breakout for Almeida to last all 3 weeks at a GT winning level (even if this field is depleted), while Pozzo's best GT finish is still only a fifth and he's older than Vincenzo. Kelderman is probably the scariest because he's at peak age and looks good but he's liable to manufacture his own issues and has rarely blown people out of the water.

The bag might be a bit old and worn but it's not full of holes.
 
Oct 12, 2020
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I don't know how you can be worried about Vincenzo over 3 weeks given he's done it year after year after year, especially when the people you're worried about are riders who have never really shown that ability.

It would take a massive breakout for Almeida to last all 3 weeks at a GT winning level (even if this field is depleted), while Pozzo's best GT finish is still only a fifth and he's older than Vincenzo. Kelderman is probably the scariest because he's at peak age and looks good but he's liable to manufacture his own issues and has rarely blown people out of the water.

The bag might be a bit old and worn but it's not full of holes.
I'm not worried about Nibali's ability to survive 3 weeks, but as of now I feel like his current level is a bit below the guys you mentioned. That's why I hope he will reach his best form in the last week, otherwise it's hard to see him gaining time over his main rivals who are all above him in the standings (aside from Fuglsang).
 
I'm not worried about Nibali's ability to survive 3 weeks, but as of now I feel like his current level is a bit below the guys you mentioned. That's why I hope he will reach his best form in the last week, otherwise it's hard to see him gaining time over his main rivals who are all above him in the standings (aside from Fuglsang).
We cannot see on these stages what the current level of riders is in high mountain stages.
 
I'm not worried about Nibali's ability to survive 3 weeks, but as of now I feel like his current level is a bit below the guys you mentioned. That's why I hope he will reach his best form in the last week, otherwise it's hard to see him gaining time over his main rivals who are all above him in the standings (aside from Fuglsang).
I keep telling that the real tests will be during the weekend, for all involved. Until now there is absolutely no sign that Nibali will not perform at his best possible level when the road is suited to his strenghts, he has been consistent and only lost a few seconds on a garage ramp to riders better suited to that kind of finish.

On the other hand none of the others ever performed at Nibali's level over three weeks. Lots of things can happen but he is the number one favorite and it's not even close.
 
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Oct 8, 2020
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Thinking about a stage like the 20th (I have ridden all those climbs multiple times, I have even ridden all of them in the same sequence in a solo ride starting and finishing in the town where I live, 253 km and 5050 m of elevation gain) I really cannot see how riders like Almeida and Kelderman could keep up with Nibali (and maybe Fuglsang). Monginevro and Sestriere are not that hard...but the Izoard and in particular the Agnello are in a completely different category with respect to the climbs they have done until now.

Since the teams are quite weak, a stage like that can be either complete havoc from the beginning of the Agnello or extremely boring until the final climb. I suppose that, if needed, Nibali will do something like stage 20 2016.
 
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I seriously think if in good form Nibali can give 2min to everybody on that stage alone (stage 20).
Well...in stage 20, if somebody does not have the legs to keep up on the Agnello, it will be much worse than the crisis of Yates of the Finestre.
The Agnello is so difficult that if someone like Nibali attacks just after Chianale (meaning 8-9 km before the summit) no domestiques will be able to follow the captains...so it will be chaos.
 
As Rollthedice already mentioned, the next real GC tests are on Saturday and Sunday. The Nove Colli stage should be fascinating as well, but I don't except anything major to happen in the GC. So far Vincenzo has been pretty solid and his terrain is yet to come.

I hear the weather forecast for Northern Italy for the next 10 days is reasonable. IMO, if there are any problems with snow they are more likely to happen on Agnello. Stelvio is a very important state road, so I'm pretty confident it'll be raceable.
 
As Rollthedice already mentioned, the next real GC tests are on Saturday and Sunday. The Nove Colli stage should be fascinating as well, but I don't except anything major to happen in the GC. So far Vincenzo has been pretty solid and his terrain is yet to come.

I hear the weather forecast for Northern Italy for the next 10 days is reasonable. IMO, if there are any problems with snow they are more likely to happen on Agnello. Stelvio is a very important state road, so I'm pretty confident it'll be raceable.
Stelvio is more important anyway, as Agnello has a decent alternative.
 
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As Rollthedice already mentioned, the next real GC tests are on Saturday and Sunday. The Nove Colli stage should be fascinating as well, but I don't except anything major to happen in the GC. So far Vincenzo has been pretty solid and his terrain is yet to come.

I hear the weather forecast for Northern Italy for the next 10 days is reasonable. IMO, if there are any problems with snow they are more likely to happen on Agnello. Stelvio is a very important state road, so I'm pretty confident it'll be raceable.
At the moment there is for sure more snow on the Stelvio. I have not been on the Agnello since July, however today I was riding on a climb which is not very far away (no more than 10 km as the crow flies, but it is in another valley) and I was not able to see any consistent amount of snow below 3000m.
Mathematical models (GFS) have changed their predictions, for the moment it seems that temperatures for the end of the next week will go up a little bit and there should not be snow (but a lot of rain in the area of Agnello and Izoard a couple of days before the stage, however it should rain up to 2800-3000 m).
 
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Stelvio is more important anyway, as Agnello has a decent alternative.
Not really, because preparing the gravel section of the Finestre in few days is almost impossible.
And a plan C going up to Sestriere from Pinerolo (Val Chisone), then descending to Cesana and climbing again to Sestriere from the old road of Sauze di Cesana is not a "tappone" because both climbs are quite easy (especially Sestriere from the Chisone valley).
 
From what I've seen the giro is super back loaded this year so really nothing happened in GC yet. And Nibali has by far the most GT credentials obviously.

That being said. Kelderman has never been as strong as he is now. And Almeida is a big unknown. But with Kruijswijk being the only other one with proper GT credentials (solidly beating Nibali until hitting a snow wall remember) gone, it really looks like it's Nibali's for the taking... I'd be really surprised if anyone else takes it at this point.
 
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Ugh. What else. Montcenisio?
First possibility: Alba - Pinerolo - Sestriere (from Chisone valley, so the side you usually climb after descending the Finestre) - Cesana (descent on the road they should have used as last climb) - Sestriere (climbing from the old Sauze di Cesana road, which is harder than the normal climb from Cesana).

Second possibility: Alba - Susa - Moncenisio from Novalesa (the old road, clearly not up to the summit because you go back to Susa when you reach the new road of Moncenisio) - Cesana - Sestriere.

Another alternative (impossible because Sestriere should agree to postpone the original stage to 2021, letting at the same time the organization to move the finish to another place) would be the Montoso climb (I live there). I think that this would be hard enough :eek:

 
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