I would have been confident that he would win the race no matter rerouting if he had been on the same time as Pozzovivo. Fortunately, he TTs better than everyone else except Kelderman, so we'll see. Still favourite.
-
The Cycling News forum is looking to add some volunteer moderators with Red Rick's recent retirement. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to
In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.
Thanks!
The biggest problem is not Nibali's shape. It's that he doesn't have the team to make the race as hard as he would like to. Trek looked terrible today. They couldn't drop anybody but themselves.
And nobody else will want to make it hard. Astana is probably even worse than Trek without Vlasov and Superman. Sunweb has the riders but will gladly take a slow paced mountain stage and the uphill sprint. Same goes for DQS. Only Jumbo might wanna take control in the third week if Kruijswijk feels great but I wouldn't bet on it.
And nobody else will want to make it hard. Astana is probably even worse than Trek without Vlasov and Superman. Sunweb has the riders but will gladly take a slow paced mountain stage and the uphill sprint. Same goes for DQS. Only Jumbo might wanna take control in the third week if Kruijswijk feels great but I wouldn't bet on it.
Stage 10 worries me a lot to be fair, Fuglsang can take some serious time on the hilly stages of week 2, in addition to Fuglsang, Kelderman and maybe Majka and even Pozzovivo can take time as well. But cruical that he did not lose time to Kruijswijk. Actually stage 10 is an opportunity to put more time into Kruijswijk. And in TT's he can gain time on anyone except Almeida and Kelderman, and Almeida seems weaker in mountains.
We may have a scenario where Nibali wins the race through sheer consistency.
He'll try to win with consistency or else on the Stelvio. Either way, it's in the bag.
Don´t think hills in general are a problem. Uphill sprints are. Just looking at Nibali in Lombardia in the last few years it is obvious that in shape no one can drop him on a short and steep climb after a hard race. Different story when a group of 30 riders is still together with 1km to go. Really sucks that Trek isn´t able to make the race harder.
I think everybody who knows Nibali expected this outcome, it's nothing out of ordinary to be dropped on a 1km final ramp sprint. It doesn't change anything, he has to defend until the prosecco TT and Piancavallo. If he can't distance these mediocre rivals there, then we have a problem, those monster stages later are in danger to become less monstrous. Short statement today:
"It was a strange stage, very particular, and I must say that we expected it a bit. It has been a hard day, because regardless that climbing kilometers were a lot, in the end everything came to a conclusion with an uphill sprint in which I lost a few seconds to those who were more explosive than me".
"It was a strange stage, very particular, and I must say that we expected it a bit. It has been a hard day, because regardless that climbing kilometers were a lot, in the end everything came to a conclusion with an uphill sprint in which I lost a few seconds to those who were more explosive than me".
Last edited:
This has been one weird Giro so far, and I feel like it could become even more so.
No matter what happens I feel like all of us will say, "I told you so." If Nibali doesn't win, it will be, "Well, he's almost thirty-six." If he does win, then it will be, "Well, how could any of those other riders have won the Giro?" That's the thing about the race and field; you just don't look down that list and see Giro winner alongside any other name.
I think that last year, many of us felt that another Giro was beyond Nibali, but that was partly because of Roglic. Here was a guy, who if he performed up to the level that we felt like he could perform at, would probably win. And Nibali is another seventeen months older now. But there isn't a guy like Roglic in this race, not at all.
I'm getting - dare I say it - 2012 Giro vibes.
Basso would be Nibali, obviously. And Szmyd would be Cicione? Kreuziger would be....Fuglsang?
Well, Nibali fans can always hope.
It feels like someone can win this GT, and like a Cunego or a Hesjedal, never do anything much of note in a GT GC again. And even with a serious ITT coming up, I don't know if that will make the race situation any clearer. It doesn't appear as if that will be particularly defining, as most of what are left of the contenders seem pretty evenly matched against the clock (there is only one Rodriguez).
I don't feel as if there are any of those riders well up in the top 10 currently, who have any good reason to take any risk at all. At least not until stage 18 (if we get there). A second or third place would probably greatly satisfy anyone not named Nibali, who realistically might not be good enough to win anymore.
But someone has to win.
No matter what happens I feel like all of us will say, "I told you so." If Nibali doesn't win, it will be, "Well, he's almost thirty-six." If he does win, then it will be, "Well, how could any of those other riders have won the Giro?" That's the thing about the race and field; you just don't look down that list and see Giro winner alongside any other name.
I think that last year, many of us felt that another Giro was beyond Nibali, but that was partly because of Roglic. Here was a guy, who if he performed up to the level that we felt like he could perform at, would probably win. And Nibali is another seventeen months older now. But there isn't a guy like Roglic in this race, not at all.
I'm getting - dare I say it - 2012 Giro vibes.
Basso would be Nibali, obviously. And Szmyd would be Cicione? Kreuziger would be....Fuglsang?
Well, Nibali fans can always hope.It feels like someone can win this GT, and like a Cunego or a Hesjedal, never do anything much of note in a GT GC again. And even with a serious ITT coming up, I don't know if that will make the race situation any clearer. It doesn't appear as if that will be particularly defining, as most of what are left of the contenders seem pretty evenly matched against the clock (there is only one Rodriguez).
I don't feel as if there are any of those riders well up in the top 10 currently, who have any good reason to take any risk at all. At least not until stage 18 (if we get there). A second or third place would probably greatly satisfy anyone not named Nibali, who realistically might not be good enough to win anymore.
But someone has to win.
Same here.
The giro started out with some very entertaining stages but it was incredibly dull since then.
And I'm not really sure weaker teams will translate to more aggressive racing anymore.
It's been nice knowing you buddy.
(Just getting that in quickly before we both get banned!)
Wait another 3 years when he enters the Vuelta.Vincenzo is almost 36; he's becoming an old bag
I am bored, so I am looking at The Shark's Wikipedia page. Apparently he is also known as something else: The Rodent
Perhaps this 'fact' was recently added by Jakob
Perhaps this 'fact' was recently added by Jakob
I am bored, so I am looking at The Shark's Wikipedia page. Apparently he is also known as something else: The Rodent
Perhaps this 'fact' was recently added by Jakob
It doesn't seem to occure anywhere else on the web, so you might be right
But it could also be a different voodoo victim
It doesn't seem to occure anywhere else on the web, so you might be right
But it could also be a different voodoo victim
Thinking....
The Witches turned boys into mice....
Vincenzo: "Are you a man or a mouse? Here's a descent. Follow me!"
I think Nibali was too good on Etna to simply not show up for the high mountain stages and just be an also ran there like Basso in 2012. If I'm getting any vibes it's 2017 Vuelta where he got dropped badly on every single murito but was basically the most consistent climber in the race apart from Cordal crash. This Giro has no Froome like rider and it suits him much better.This has been one weird Giro so far, and I feel like it could become even more so.
No matter what happens I feel like all of us will say, "I told you so." If Nibali doesn't win, it will be, "Well, he's almost thirty-six." If he does win, then it will be, "Well, how could any of those other riders have won the Giro?" That's the thing about the race and field; you just don't look down that list and see Giro winner alongside any other name.
I think that last year, many of us felt that another Giro was beyond Nibali, but that was partly because of Roglic. Here was a guy, who if he performed up to the level that we felt like he could perform at, would probably win. And Nibali is another seventeen months older now. But there isn't a guy like Roglic in this race, not at all.
I'm getting - dare I say it - 2012 Giro vibes.
Basso would be Nibali, obviously. And Szmyd would be Cicione? Kreuziger would be....Fuglsang?
It feels like someone can win this GT, and like a Cunego or a Hesjedal, never do anything much of note in a GT GC again. And even with a serious ITT coming up, I don't know if that will make the race situation any clearer. It doesn't appear as if that will be particularly defining, as most of what are left of the contenders seem pretty evenly matched against the clock (there is only one Rodriguez).
I don't feel as if there are any of those riders well up in the top 10 currently, who have any good reason to take any risk at all. At least not until stage 18 (if we get there). A second or third place would probably greatly satisfy anyone not named Nibali, who realistically might not be good enough to win anymore.
But someone has to win.
The 2019 Giro/Tour also showed how much better Nibali is at the really long climbs. Don't think there's many guys who could've held off the peloton like Nibali did in Val Thorens.
Not sure if Finestre will be plan B or they'll get straight to plan C, but I read that there's some good weather predictions about Stelvio. That stage should settle the score.
All we need is just a little bit of patience, Nibali is in a good place and there wasn't a single stage suited to his strengths until now. Furthermore, I can't see one until Piancavallo. Muritos and arrivals far from the last climb/descent will not make a difference either way. If he doesn't get some weird ideas in the meantime, the time trial will be the first stage where he can make a good step towards the pink jersey.
TRENDING THREADS
-
-
Paris - Roubaix 2024, one day monument, April 7- Started by Dreginald
- Replies: 2K
-
-
Tour of the Alps 2024 (April 15 - 19)- Started by Devil's Elbow
- Replies: 359
-
-
Volta Ciclista a Catalunya 2024 (March 18-24)- Started by Devil's Elbow
- Replies: 2K
-
De Ronde van Vlaanderen (270.8 km), 2024 March 31 (Sunday)- Started by Netserk
- Replies: 1K
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram