Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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Realistically this is his last good chance.

So we must pop Prosecco, in victory or defeat.
Absolutely the last chance.

Even with the podium (which for sure is in the bag) it would be somewhat rare at his age. Winning would be sensational, as I believe he would be around 3rd oldest GT winner in history. And we know Horner... the #2 is 36y old from 1922.

Vincenzo is doing just fine. Champion of generations.
 
I will trust the Slongo on Nibs' watts. I am more and more convinced he will do something tomorrow, he just keeps referring to that stage...

PLS Nibali win this thing, another 2nd place will destroy me. For Shark's sake I could tolerate Carapaz last year, but Wilco!? (no offence to the lad).

Btw to y'all who say this is the last chance: see you here again to claim "in the bag" for Giro 2021.
 
Yeah it wasn't disastrous, but he was bang average when we're used to see him always be at least solid/decent in a GT ITT. And all his previous ITTs at Trek were bad. Weird thing is him doing better on the flat than on the climbs in this ITT, big gears, and the really strange splits, etc.

But then before this Giro I thought he needed to be better than 2019 to win, adjusting for circumstances, etc. Now I think him being like 2019 is good enough.
The weirdly big gears were Slongo's last fine tuning training for week three peak. First hints of 2019 Mortirolo shape tomorrow.
 
I don’t have a dog in the fight really, but I like Nibali. Putting pressure Almeida and Kelderman is all fine and good as they are riding above expectations, but I wouldn’t ignore Bilbao who finished 1 second ahead of Vince today. If Kelderman cracks or pulls a Kruijswijk, he will be more difficult to shake in the mountains than Chavez in 2016.
 
I don’t have a dog in the fight really, but I like Nibali. Putting pressure Almeida and Kelderman is all fine and good as they are riding above expectations, but I wouldn’t ignore Bilbao who finished 1 second ahead of Vince today. If Kelderman cracks or pulls a Kruijswijk, he will be more difficult to shake in the mountains than Chavez in 2016.
Bilbao has Tour in his legs. It has to start impacting sooner or later. I think it already did today, his ITT was mediocre the least to his best level. I don't see Bilbao being in the mix, but on the other hand this is 2020 and we've seen stranger things.
 
Reactions: SafeBet
Oh NO! He sounds like Alberto who also
ended his career at Trek :(.

“The analysis of today’s time trial should be done on a personal level, and also in comparison with others,” said Nibali. “For my part, the most objective numbers on performance come from my Garmin [power meter], and honestly, what I saw was comforting. My power was remarkable, in line with the expectations I had set with (Trek-Segafredo trainer) Paolo Slongo at the start."

This from the man who said power meters shouldn't be allowed in races!
 
I don’t have a dog in the fight really, but I like Nibali. Putting pressure Almeida and Kelderman is all fine and good as they are riding above expectations, but I wouldn’t ignore Bilbao who finished 1 second ahead of Vince today. If Kelderman cracks or pulls a Kruijswijk, he will be more difficult to shake in the mountains than Chavez in 2016.
Bilbao hasn´t really shown that he can compete with the best in the high mountains this year and even on the punchy finish on stage 9 he did not gain any time. In 2016 Chaves was a way better climber than Bilbao has ever been.
 
Bilbao hasn´t really shown that he can compete with the best in the high mountains this year and even on the punchy finish on stage 9 he did not gain any time. In 2016 Chaves was a way better climber than Bilbao has ever been.
It was a matter of time before Chavez collapsed. He was never going to beat Nibali. Bilbao is a stronger rider who knows how to ride a GT. Chavez didn’t.

Bilbao hasn’t had great results this year, but neither has Nibali really. He could’ve ridden himself into form at the Tour, where he was basically on dom duty. If he feels strong enough to contend, I think he could be much tougher to crack than Chavez.
 
I am more and more convinced he will do something tomorrow, he just keeps referring to that stage...
I just watched the 1998 stage 14. Granted the parcours before the Piancavallo
were easy, not a single rated climb. But Pantani went around 7km to go, after his team set a Strong pace and launched him. He managed to gain a whole 12" on Tonkov. The climb itself doesn't look hard enough to do real damage. But they will have 3 cat 2s in their legs before they hit it. Hopefully some team is making it hard because Nibs doesn't have a team that can do it. Nor does he have anyone to send up the road with the break :(.
 
90's Giro Tonkov was far from a pushover. He even beat Pantani on the Pampeago in the same race.

5th place on that stage finished essentially 2 minutes back, so it was possible to do damage, but of course things were slightly different then with 60km more ITT left to race than this year.
 
It was a matter of time before Chavez collapsed. He was never going to beat Nibali. Bilbao is a stronger rider who knows how to ride a GT. Chavez didn’t.

Bilbao hasn’t had great results this year, but neither has Nibali really. He could’ve ridden himself into form at the Tour, where he was basically on dom duty. If he feels strong enough to contend, I think he could be much tougher to crack than Chavez.
I could be wrong, but I don't think Bilbao has ever finished top 5 out of the favorites group in a mountain stage in a GT. I'd wait until he ticks this box first, before considering him as a contender.
 
Reactions: Forever The Best
90's Giro Tonkov was far from a pushover. He even beat Pantani on the Pampeago in the same race.

5th place on that stage finished essentially 2 minutes back, so it was possible to do damage, but of course things were slightly different then with 60km more ITT left to race than this year.
Piancavallo is probably the closest thing to a French Alpe d'Huez but in such a location it's not preceded by 1 or 2 massive climbs most of the time
 
Earlier in the Giro, in one of my posts, I wondered if Nibali was trying to bluff his way out of being attacked. I wasn't sure that he was as good as he normally is. And that may be the case. But now he has no choice. He'd better find his form, be smart, and hope that riders who haven't been there before will let pressure (and sneak attacks) get to them, make mistakes.

Vincenzo will fight, he may not have what it takes, we'll see. He knows how to win. The others don't.
 
Reactions are in, from Trek website:

“The analysis of today’s time trial should be done on a personal level, and also in comparison with others,” said Nibali. “For my part, the most objective numbers on performance come from my Garmin [power meter], and honestly, what I saw was comforting. My power was remarkable, in line with the expectations I had set with (Trek-Segafredo trainer) Paolo Slongo at the start.

“Also, my time was certainly not bad,” continued Nibali. “If I compare it with the others it was okay, with the only exceptions of Kelderman and Almeida, who went really strong, the pink jersey above all. Anyway, the real balance of the race must be done after tomorrow’s mountain stage of Piancavallo”
I agree that his time wasn't particularly bad.

Of course on the other hand, if he blows up then we can compare to Bernal talking up his best numbers :laughing:
 

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