Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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The good: GC situation means Trek won't have to carry the race. Win condition hasn't changed all that much. Everyone but Kelderman and Almeida within distance and on climbs like Agnello/Izoard/Stelvio Nibali should still be able to take them.

The bag: Where the *** did it go

The ugly: Nibali's shades. Nibali's ITTs at Trek. Can't really win without Stelvio/Agnello anymroe.
Yeah, that's also how I see it. At least the weather is looking good at the start of the next week, so fingers crossed for the Stelvio stage. Wilco also isn't the greatest bike handler, so he could probably gain a lot of time on a descent.
If the race goes on as planned (fingers crossed) I can see Nibali, Birdsong and Pozzovivo attacking on stage 16.
 
The funny thing is, if two weeks ago you had told me Nibali is gonna enter the Alps in 5th place behind only Almeida, Kelderman, McNulty and Bilbao my reaction would have been, well easy win then. If Nibali's shape is there those guys should still really not be a problem (with the exception of Kelderman maybe, but even then it's just Kelderman), but at this point I fear the shape just isn't there.
Literally nothing makes sense anymore. The thing I sort of hang on to is that he hasn't had any good ITTs at Trek yet, but the sample size is really low. He's looked good and solid on all but one road stage.
 
The funny thing is, if two weeks ago you had told me Nibali is gonna enter the Alps in 5th place behind only Almeida, Kelderman, McNulty and Bilbao my reaction would have been, well easy win then. If Nibali's shape is there those guys should still really not be a problem (with the exception of Kelderman maybe, but even then it's just Kelderman), but at this point I fear the shape just isn't there.
It's 2016 all over again. Sadly there will be no Scarponi waiting for him.
 
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Yeah, that's also how I see it. At least the weather is looking good at the start of the next week, so fingers crossed for the Stelvio stage. Wilco also isn't the greatest bike handler, so he could probably gain a lot of time on a descent.
If the race goes on as planned (fingers crossed) I can see Nibali, Birdsong and Pozzovivo attacking on stage 16.
Yes he might have allies on the attack.

It is known that Fuglsang likes his husbands.

Rachele might not be a fan.
 
Sucks that Trek doesn´t have the strength to blow up the race in the mountains. Blowing up the race on one of the earlier climbs isn´t an option without a team. Can only hope that NTT or even Sunweb (trying to drop Almeida) will make the race hard.
 
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The funny thing is, if two weeks ago you had told me Nibali is gonna enter the Alps in 5th place behind only Almeida, Kelderman, McNulty and Bilbao my reaction would have been, well easy win then. If Nibali's shape is there those guys should still really not be a problem (with the exception of Kelderman maybe, but even then it's just Kelderman), but at this point I fear the shape just isn't there.
I just don't see a reason to really think the shape isn't there yet when he's looked good on everything bar the one finish that really didn't suit him.

This weekend is about as clear a double header as it gets with a hard discipline split on TT vs big Mountain coming at peak fatigue before the rest day. Nibali and Birdsong both said that tomorrow is a consideration for today and I'm not going to worry until he gets dropped 5k out tomorrow :D
 
I just don't see a reason to really think the shape isn't there yet when he's looked good on everything bar the one finish that really didn't suit him.

This weekend is about as clear a double header as it gets with a hard discipline split on TT vs big Mountain coming at peak fatigue before the rest day. Nibali and Birdsong both said that tomorrow is a consideration for today
I wouldn't worry if he improved in the final part of the time trial, but he was just terrible. This doesn't sound like someone trying to measure his effort.
 
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I wouldn't worry if he improved in the final part of the time trial, but he was just terrible. This doesn't sound like someone trying to measure his effort.
To be fair he improved a bit in the very last part with the slight downhill, if that counts at all... but yeah otherwise he always looked like he couldn't quite put down enough power.

Plus he looked cooked after crossing the line, more so than Wilco or Almeida. Doesn't bode well for tomorrow... which is not even a climb all that suited to him.
 
I wouldn't worry if he improved in the final part of the time trial, but he was just terrible. This doesn't sound like someone trying to measure his effort.
Well I am waiting for his explanation cause if there's Trek gearing fuckups or craziness that's another wee little straw to hang on to.

Another straw is honestly Val Thorens super long climb overperformance.
 
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PANIC!

He really needs to go all out on Stelvio, early enough for it to become mano a mano, but Sunweb seems too good.
Stelvio is still a few stages away. A lot about that stages strat depends on the stages before, but on a monster climb like the Stelvio I don't see the relative strength of Sunweb as prohibitive. Agnello is the real place for desperation moves IMO.
 
Don´t think he should attack tommorrow. Climb does not suit him and the stage isn´t difficult enough to make a big difference. Should just follow wheels and limit his loses. We will probably have to wait for the Stelvio.
It is fairly straightforward. Attack if you have legs and/or you sense weakness. Don't attack if you don't. I don't rate Kelderman as that great on Piancavallo either.
 
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Don´t think he should attack tommorrow. Climb does not suit him and the stage isn´t difficult enough to make a big difference. Should just follow wheels and limit his loses. We will probably have to wait for the Stelvio.
Yeah I was thinking the same, I'm not saying he should attack but at least look good on the bike to reassure his followers.
 

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