Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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This year was atypical and made Trek seem like the retirement home of riders.
Nobody knows how governments will keep reacting to covid (even though one might argue that more lockdowns would be absolutely catastrophic), but even though I think 2021 will seem more "normal" than 2020, the damage to the confidence of some riders has been made.

The likes of Nibali, Valverde and Dumoulin (and some others) have time against them and you know the saying, for whom the bell tolls time marches on.

All in all, I expect Nibbles to target both the Giro and Olympics next year (who knows) and, perhaps, say his goodbye at Giro di Lombardia.

Nibbles will never be a disposable hero though. Long live the king.
 
Guys.

Do not shed tear.

Do not fall victim to sorrow

The future of the House of Nibali, Paramounts of the Strait of Messina is secure.

In 2018, Antonio finished 4 hours down on the winner
In 2019, He finished 3 hours down on the winner
In 2020, He finished 2 hours down on the winner.

We all know Remco Evenepoel is extremely eager to cross Il Giro off his bag bucket list next year. Now we know why.

2022 is inevitable. The true heir to the bag is alive. He's just hidden in plain sight as a bastard bang average rider
 
Without Porte in the team, Trek can send a strong squad to the Giro in 2021. Mads Pedersen wil be better than every domestique that Nibali had as his disposal this year. Together with a faster Antonio, a fully recovered Ciccone, Kenny Elissonde and Rohan Dennis, who will want to switch equipment, when Ganna destroys him again tomorrow, Lo Squalo will be unstoppable.
 
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Guys.

Do not shed tear.

Do not fall victim to sorrow

The future of the House of Nibali, Paramounts of the Strait of Messina is secure.

In 2018, Antonio finished 4 hours down on the winner
In 2019, He finished 3 hours down on the winner
In 2020, He finished 2 hours down on the winner.

We all know Remco Evenepoel is extremely eager to cross Il Giro off his bag bucket list next year. Now we know why.

2022 is inevitable. The true heir to the bag is alive. He's just hidden in plain sight as a bastard bang average rider
Antonio had more pro wins than Hart until this Giro, the bag is just a question of time.

For Vincenzo: form is temporary, class is permanent.
 
Tao had 2 wins before the Giro so that doesn't really work


Damn, he's moving fast and I keep forgeting, generational change. He was tormenting Nibali in that Tour of the Alps following Vincenzo's countless attacks. Yes, Nibali attacked many times last year. Anyway, he seems a nice chap, Tao.
 
Just difficult to evaluate this years Giro. His climbing numbers suggest that he wasn´t any better last year or in 2016 but it simply wasn´t enough this year. But looking at his TT results he was a lot worse this year. Might have been the worst TT perfomances in any of his attempts to win a GT. Only exception being the mountain TT in 2016.
 
Just difficult to evaluate this years Giro. His climbing numbers suggest that he wasn´t any better last year or in 2016 but it simply wasn´t enough this year. But looking at his TT results he was a lot worse this year. Might have been the worst TT perfomances in any of his attempts to win a GT. Only exception being the mountain TT in 2016.
Because if suddenly people are doing insane watts they only do that on the climbs and never in ITTs?
 
Because if suddenly people are doing insane watts they only do that on the climbs and never in ITTs?
Might be the case for the Ineos or Sunweb riders but even guys like Majka or Pozzovivo that looked even worse in the mountains looked better in the TTs. Pozzo actually beat him by 6s over the three TTs. I guess Nibali did not really go all out today but that´s just terrible.
 
It feels different this time. It's not a close or unfortunate miss like previously. I'm not ready to call it yet, but if the cycling world has truly changed it may become very painful.
Still, considering how it felt after that day in the Vuelta 5 years ago... Vincenzo created many beautiful things since then, much more than I thought was gonna be possible back then.
 
I am not even sure this "the young riders are taking over / generational change" thing is real. Maybe our perception is deceiving us a bit.
I guess this year all the big guns, if possible, were aimed at the Tour. And yes, Pogacar won the Tour, but look at the riders behind him: Within the top25 there is one rider younger than 26, Mas (25). Some riders appear young and fresh, because they have not been constants in road cycling, like van Aert and Sepp Kuss. This seems to be their break-out year. But they are both 26 and know a thing or two about cycling.
Now if you look at the stage wins at the Tour, there are Hirschi, Kämna and Pogacar who are younger than 25. Hirschi and Pogacar were very present, and Kämna's win wasn't random, either, so they drew a lot of attention. But the other stage winners were mostly in their later 20s.
I think this year the Giro was the GT for those who were deadset on it (Nibali, Fuglsang, Yates), those who were not ready for the Tour (Thomas), but then a lot of younger guys in support of team-leaders, because the best support cast of many teams was going to the Tour and then to the Vuelta.
Now the Vuelta: Currently in the Top10 there is one rider younger than 26: Mas (25). The youngest stage winner so far is Soler (26).
None of the monument winners were under 25.
So, yes, there is a certain "change of guard", with Froome kind of out, Sagan not getting the wins as before, Nibali not among the best.
But it's not that we are getting overrun by young wild (almost) teenagers. And then there is Richie Porte with his Tour podium, Kristoff still being very competitive (he's not as old as I always assume, though...), Valverde "off" for his standards, but also still competitive, Dan Martin doing very well in the Vuelta so far, Pozzovivo in very good shape at 37...

Is this really about Nibali? A bit. Mostly it's something I wanted to say.
Well, playing a little against Nibali might really be the focus on punchier stages instead of real long term endurance. But no need to sing his swan song, yet.
 
I don't see it as a hard generational change. Yes, Poggers won the Tour, but all the rest of the GC were well established GC riders. The Giro had a thin field where all the top guys except for Nibali crashed out or got COVID. The Vuelta isn't full of young GC hopes either. Quintana was flying early in the year, Thomas and Yates were flying before the Giro. Kelderman is 29.

Meanwhile, Dumoulin, and Froome were off in the Tour or not there due to well established reasons. Roglic is 30 and close to the height of his ability. Bernal, at 23 had a big off year. That leaves who? Valverde is clearly over the hill but he's 40 and was 2nd in the Vuelta last year. Contador retired and left us all in the hands of the Bag. Hell, Porte, at 36 (?!?) made his first Tour podium.

Climbing times speeds were high in the last 2 weeks fo the Giro, but I don't think they were as fast as the Tour. Not so say Bilbao is a good reference, he isn't. But I'd say if Dennis takes off on Col de La Loze instead of the Stelvio he doesn't have just 2 dudes in his wheel. For Hindley and TGH, I think outside all the craziness, they mostly showed to be better GC riders than Kelderman and Almeida.

For Nibali, the question is if he moves a long with the times or if the times roll back. I don't think the latter will happen. If the former doesn't happen either, I foresee an unspectacular ending. Can't create havoc if you don't have the watts to have a fighting chance.
 
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This honestly feels like years ago
That´s actually one of the things that gives me hope for next year. Slongo mentioned that he wasn´t sure how Nibali´s legs would respond in the 3rd week and he wasn´t the only one that faded badly. Except for Kelderman (who clearly declined as well but at least finished on the podium) the top guys from the Etna stage looked really bad in the 2nd part of the race. Pozzo, Fuglsang, Nibali, Kelderman and to a lesser degree Majka looked like they could easily put a minute into all other riders. Hindley and TGH were nowhere to be seen. TGH could have easily lost even more time in the following days. They droped him more than once but thankfully for him no one was willing to go all out to the finish line.
Maybe the remaining pre race favorites (minus Thomas and Yates) just peaked to early and had nothing left in the tank in the 3rd week.
 
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Just difficult to evaluate this years Giro. His climbing numbers suggest that he wasn´t any better last year or in 2016 but it simply wasn´t enough this year. But looking at his TT results he was a lot worse this year. Might have been the worst TT perfomances in any of his attempts to win a GT. Only exception being the mountain TT in 2016.
I rewatched the Pinerolo-Agnello-Risoul 2016 stage. Scarponi and Kangert were important, but what striked me the most is the cadence he could achieve when he was younger. I've not seen Nibs going froomey style in a while during his attacks. He's also more sensitive to speed changes now.
 
That´s actually one of the things that gives me hope for next year. Slongo mentioned that he wasn´t sure how Nibali´s legs would respond in the 3rd week and he wasn´t the only one that faded badly. Except for Kelderman (who clearly declined as well but at least finished on the podium) the top guys from the Etna stage looked really bad in the 2nd part of the race. Pozzo, Fuglsang, Nibali, Kelderman and to a lesser degree Majka looked like they could easily put a minute into all other riders. Hindley and TGH were nowhere to be seen. TGH could have easily lost even more time in the following days. They droped him more than once but thankfully for him no one was willing to go all out to the finish line.
Maybe the remaining pre race favorites (minus Thomas and Yates) just peaked to early and had nothing left in the tank in the 3rd week.
Dont think any of it is peaking too early and all of it is in the place that must not be mentioned
 

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