Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Maybe not since Hinault if you consider Kelly coming post Hinault but definatly the best cyclist since the change of era's which was the early 90's when LeMond started the all out focussing on specific races and EPO made it's way into cycling.

He’s better than Kelly. Just, but better.

No, he's not. Sean Kelly is maybe an all-time top 10 rider, or awfully close. He was the best in the world for 5 years! Nibali is a magnificent rider, able to produce magic moments and big wins, but I think he's not on Kelly's level (yet).

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

*A* favourite for Innsbruck. Too much “what if” in a one day race, too much racing between now and then, and too many other possible contenders. And all based on the one result so far this season. 2 week’s ago would we have suggested Benoot , Bardet or Van Aert as Worlds favourite s?

I disagree.
Benoot, Bardet and Van Aert have no track record in Worlds, Olympics and 250+ km hard climbing races. Nibali was the strongest in Firenze, Rio, Lombardia. If he gets to Innsbruck in top shape (and history suggests he will) + Italy makes it a hard race (and they have all the tools to do it) he's the top favorite in my book.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

*A* favourite for Innsbruck. Too much “what if” in a one day race, too much racing between now and then, and too many other possible contenders. And all based on the one result so far this season. 2 week’s ago would we have suggested Benoot , Bardet or Van Aert as Worlds favourite s?

I disagree.
Benoot, Bardet and Van Aert have no track record in Worlds, Olympics and 250+ km hard climbing races. Nibali was the strongest in Firenze, Rio, Lombardia. If he gets to Innsbruck in top shape (and history suggests he will) + Italy makes it a hard race (and they have all the tools to do it) he's the top favorite in my book.

I agree. When was the last time nibali was not the strongest rider in a big one day race he entered with close to that much climbing? The only concern is that the last climb in Innsbruck is too steep for him, but then again it seems like every climb suits him after such a hard race.
Meanwhile I completely disagree that van aert and benoot are big favorites. That race will most likely go to a climber

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

Maybe not since Hinault if you consider Kelly coming post Hinault but definatly the best cyclist since the change of era's which was the early 90's when LeMond started the all out focussing on specific races and EPO made it's way into cycling.

He’s better than Kelly. Just, but better.

No, he's not. Sean Kelly is maybe an all-time top 10 rider, or awfully close. He was the best in the world for 5 years! Nibali is a magnificent rider, able to produce magic moments and big wins, but I think he's not on Kelly's level (yet).

Totally agree

 

[Rollthedice]

This Milano Sanremo win is turning out to be a game changer regarding Nibali's career. It's as if the mainstream press and the casual cycling fan suddenly discovered that this guy who won in a thrilling fashion one of the most important one-day race in the world also has won all three grand tours and another monument just a few months ago. He is getting compared to greats from other generations, all-time greats, gets phone calls from Merckx, full front pages in an Italian press obsessed with football, letters of apology from old cycling fans who doubted his "fuoriclasse" and people remembering what cycling is all about in these times of specialized, robotic Sky type of racing. People also start to think, that in order to be an all-time great as a bicycle racer, winning as many Tour de France as possible is not enough. Vincenzo Nibali needs one more win to get there, the world championships road race.

Until then we might as well enjoy De Ronde where I'm sure he'll be one of the main attractions if only just for lining up at the start and then the Ardennes with an LBL which is turning into a little obsession for Nibali. He said he can still feel in his stomach the last km from 2012.

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

Maybe not since Hinault if you consider Kelly coming post Hinault but definatly the best cyclist since the change of era's which was the early 90's when LeMond started the all out focussing on specific races and EPO made it's way into cycling.

He’s better than Kelly. Just, but better.

No, he's not. Sean Kelly is maybe an all-time top 10 rider, or awfully close. He was the best in the world for 5 years! Nibali is a magnificent rider, able to produce magic moments and big wins, but I think he's not on Kelly's level (yet).

Wrong. Kelly's inability to to win GTs, apart from one Vuelta against poor opposition, in the era before mad specialisation drops him below Nibali. Kelly is up there in the best one-day racers list.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

*A* favourite for Innsbruck. Too much “what if” in a one day race, too much racing between now and then, and too many other possible contenders. And all based on the one result so far this season. 2 week’s ago would we have suggested Benoot , Bardet or Van Aert as Worlds favourite s?

I disagree.
Benoot, Bardet and Van Aert have no track record in Worlds, Olympics and 250+ km hard climbing races. Nibali was the strongest in Firenze, Rio, Lombardia. If he gets to Innsbruck in top shape (and history suggests he will) + Italy makes it a hard race (and they have all the tools to do it) he's the top favorite in my book.

I agree. When was the last time nibali was not the strongest rider in a big one day race he entered with close to that much climbing? The only concern is that the last climb in Innsbruck is too steep for him, but then again it seems like every climb suits him after such a hard race.
Meanwhile I completely disagree that van aert and benoot are big favorites. That race will most likely go to a climber

Benoot?

Van Aert?

Juuust wow.

This course, nobody who hasn't gotten a top 5 in a GT has any shot at winning.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

This course, nobody who hasn't gotten a top 5 in a GT has any shot at winning.

Alaphilippe?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

This course, nobody who hasn't gotten a top 5 in a GT has any shot at winning.

Alaphilippe?

The Worlds are gonna be a hell of a lot harder than Il Lombardia

 

[italoc]

Re:

Nibali lost fair and square to Papi in 2013, altho they were very close!

He did, but let's not forget what happened in stage 10 in Hazallanas. Had they taken seriously Horner then, the final results could have been different.
My argument boils down to saying that Nibali was a top 1-2 rider in that Vuelta without discussion, yet he did not win, and certainly did not over-achieve in that race.

 

[tobydawq]

Kwiatkowski? Dan Martin?

 

[bambino]

Re:

Kwiatkowski? Dan Martin?

I doubt Kwiatkowski and possibly even Martin will have the stamina needed especially if Italy/Spain will make the race hard. The WCRR is by far the hardest single race/stage this year in professional cycling. Therefore i.e. guys like Moscon will stand no chance and should help Nibs to make the race hard enough during the first times they go to the climb. My prediction for the TOP 5 contenders (in no particular order) will be likes of Uran, Pinot, Valverde, Nibs and Quintana. I'm even in doubts whether this route is too tough for Valverde, if it is raced hard from the start. Very different type of rider is pretty certainly going win than the top rouler/power climber of classics.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Kwiatkowski? Dan Martin?

Kwiatkowski has done nothing that suggests to me he'll be up there in a Worlds where punching ability are useless and endurance and climbing is all there is.

Has won two monuments by attacking in the last 2km. There's better climbers on a route like this, and he gets about 10 descents to get through.


This would be the perfect route for Purito

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Kwiatkowski? Dan Martin?

Kwiatkowski has done nothing that suggests to me he'll be up there in a Worlds where punching ability are useless and endurance and climbing is all there is.

Has won two monuments by attacking in the last 2km. There's better climbers on a route like this, and he gets about 10 descents to get through.


This would be the perfect route for Purito

Is that a proof of not being a good rider on this course?

And if he hadn't broken his back in the Tour last year, he would have had an opportunity to win the Worlds now, because he then would have had a top 5 in the GC?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Kwiatkowski? Dan Martin?

Kwiatkowski has done nothing that suggests to me he'll be up there in a Worlds where punching ability are useless and endurance and climbing is all there is.

Has won two monuments by attacking in the last 2km. There's better climbers on a route like this, and he gets about 10 descents to get through.


This would be the perfect route for Purito

Is that a proof of not being a good rider on this course?

And if he hadn't broken his back in the Tour last year, he would have had an opportunity to win the Worlds now, because he then would have had a top 5 in the GC?

It's proof that he won on different qualities than the ones required for this course.

 

[tobydawq]

I understand that; I just don't think your statement about the top 5 in a GC being a necessary condition to be considered having a chance in Innsbruck makes that much sense because it's a bit coincidental.

For example, it would mean that Adam Yates has a chance, while Simon doesn't.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Kwiatkowski? Dan Martin?

Kwiatkowski has done nothing that suggests to me he'll be up there in a Worlds where punching ability are useless and endurance and climbing is all there is.

Has won two monuments by attacking in the last 2km. There's better climbers on a route like this, and he gets about 10 descents to get through.


This would be the perfect route for Purito

Is that a proof of not being a good rider on this course?

And if he hadn't broken his back in the Tour last year, he would have had an opportunity to win the Worlds now, because he then would have had a top 5 in the GC?

The key is the endurance to climb, and as RR said, Kwiatkowski hasn't shown any signs to be able to tackle climbing of 8km with 5,7% average seven times in a row with just descent and some limited flat in between. That is 56km of climbing in about 155km, after 75km which is not exactly flat, and followed by last 3km climb with 25% gradients at worst. When you put those numbers in equation, you start to get a feeling what we are talking about.

That doesn't mean Kwiat is not a good rider. But what he has shown in his career so far does not suggest this is the profile he would be able to win. Including what he did in TDF last year.

 

[Rollthedice]

I would rate the whole Colombian team above Kwiatkowski in this race.

 

[Climbing]

Innsbruck is 261.74 Km km long with 4958 m elevation gain and with a very rough last lap.
This is way harder than the hardest Lombardia course and even harder than many queen stages in GT (cause for some reason endurance has left the sport lately).
Very hard to imagine a climber not winning this.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Innsbruck is 265 km long with 4670 m elevation gain and with a very rough last lap.
This is way harder than the hardest Lombardia course and even harder than many queen stages in GT (cause for some reason endurance has left the sport lately).
Very hard to imagine a climber not winning this.

I imagine all but one climber will not win this though

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Maybe not since Hinault if you consider Kelly coming post Hinault but definatly the best cyclist since the change of era's which was the early 90's when LeMond started the all out focussing on specific races and EPO made it's way into cycling.

He’s better than Kelly. Just, but better.

No, he's not. Sean Kelly is maybe an all-time top 10 rider, or awfully close. He was the best in the world for 5 years! Nibali is a magnificent rider, able to produce magic moments and big wins, but I think he's not on Kelly's level (yet).

Wrong. Kelly's inability to to win GTs, apart from one Vuelta against poor opposition, in the era before mad specialisation drops him below Nibali. Kelly is up there in the best one-day racers list.

Sean Kelly won 190 races, won 9 Monuments, 14 biggest stage races, 21 GT stage, he was easily the best rider in the world in second half of the 1980's. Even without that Vuelta I'd put him ahead of Nibali. As I said earlier, I think Kelly is probably among the 10 best riders of all-time, in which Nibali isn't imo.

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

Maybe not since Hinault if you consider Kelly coming post Hinault but definatly the best cyclist since the change of era's which was the early 90's when LeMond started the all out focussing on specific races and EPO made it's way into cycling.

He’s better than Kelly. Just, but better.

No, he's not. Sean Kelly is maybe an all-time top 10 rider, or awfully close. He was the best in the world for 5 years! Nibali is a magnificent rider, able to produce magic moments and big wins, but I think he's not on Kelly's level (yet).

Wrong. Kelly's inability to to win GTs, apart from one Vuelta against poor opposition, in the era before mad specialisation drops him below Nibali. Kelly is up there in the best one-day racers list.

Sean Kelly won 190 races, won 9 Monuments, 14 biggest stage races, 21 GT stage, he was easily the best rider in the world in second half of the 1980's. Even without that Vuelta I'd put him ahead of Nibali. As I said earlier, I think Kelly is probably among the 10 best riders of all-time, in which Nibali isn't imo.

And you are fully entitled to your wrong opinion

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Kelly would have scored way over 5.000 CQPoints in his best year 1984. It's lightyears above almost anything - only Jaja 95 in the same region - that was done in the last 35 years. When somebody travels to Ronde to get 2nd, wins Pais Vasco with ease and then comes back to Northern France to win Roubaix after 7,5 hrs in mud and rain, please give me a call. Ridiculous to even compare...

 

[53*11]

Re: Re:

Maybe not since Hinault if you consider Kelly coming post Hinault but definatly the best cyclist since the change of era's which was the early 90's when LeMond started the all out focussing on specific races and EPO made it's way into cycling.

He’s better than Kelly. Just, but better.

No, he's not. Sean Kelly is maybe an all-time top 10 rider, or awfully close. He was the best in the world for 5 years! Nibali is a magnificent rider, able to produce magic moments and big wins, but I think he's not on Kelly's level (yet).

Wrong. Kelly's inability to to win GTs, apart from one Vuelta against poor opposition, in the era before mad specialisation drops him below Nibali. Kelly is up there in the best one-day racers list.

Sean Kelly won 190 races, won 9 Monuments, 14 biggest stage races, 21 GT stage, he was easily the best rider in the world in second half of the 1980's. Even without that Vuelta I'd put him ahead of Nibali. As I said earlier, I think Kelly is probably among the 10 best riders of all-time, in which Nibali isn't imo.

i totally agree, kelly was a man for all races, all seasons, he took on all kinds of races, and was a very feared competitor by GT and classics contenders alike. nibali is a fine racer but he and others who pick and choose their racing dont come near kellys standards, consistency and palmares, yet anyway. the title of his autobiography ('Hunger') was apt, apart from mercx and hinault i think kelly was one of the most ferocious riders in any era. (plus hes an honorary club mate of mine, an absolute gentleman; he turns up for club spins when he can, supports the youth training fundraisers, lends his name to other fundraisers and is still a legend on our sunday club spins where he regularly shows us he hasnt lost the legs or skills of 20 years ago!

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Maybe not since Hinault if you consider Kelly coming post Hinault but definatly the best cyclist since the change of era's which was the early 90's when LeMond started the all out focussing on specific races and EPO made it's way into cycling.

He’s better than Kelly. Just, but better.

No, he's not. Sean Kelly is maybe an all-time top 10 rider, or awfully close. He was the best in the world for 5 years! Nibali is a magnificent rider, able to produce magic moments and big wins, but I think he's not on Kelly's level (yet).

Wrong. Kelly's inability to to win GTs, apart from one Vuelta against poor opposition, in the era before mad specialisation drops him below Nibali. Kelly is up there in the best one-day racers list.

Sean Kelly won 190 races, won 9 Monuments, 14 biggest stage races, 21 GT stage, he was easily the best rider in the world in second half of the 1980's. Even without that Vuelta I'd put him ahead of Nibali. As I said earlier, I think Kelly is probably among the 10 best riders of all-time, in which Nibali isn't imo.

Not yet, we'll talk again after he retires. It is entirely plausible that he'll get the rainbow jersey, bag a couple of monuments and win another Giro until then, statistically he probably has another Vuelta already. These achievements will surpass Gimondi leaving only Mercks and Hinault above. Many will agree that this would be more valuable than winning the Tour for five times or having seven GTs. But let's enjoy what he's doing today, hope he'll be healthy and leave the comparisons for after he'll leave the professional cycling.