Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[Carols]

But that is not even going down, just foot down, leave the bike and both hands down jumping over the guy on the ground, in slowmo.

Good news . I never saw that replay!

 

[Rollthedice]

There is no reason why Ciccone will not be at the Giro,especially if he is asymptomatic.

He is resting, no training whatsoever, it's a stop. Ruled out of the Worlds. Doesn't know when he will be able to pedal again, uncertainty. That's the situation right now.

 

[Rollthedice]

But that is not even going down, just foot down, leave the bike and both hands down jumping over the guy on the ground, in slowmo.

Swerved to the left to get to safety as the crash was somewhere in front, just to stumble upon a guy who was on the ground, brake and slowmo over. No other Trek riders in sight...

 

[Sestriere]

That sounds like Ciccone is out of the Giro honestly. Team support is going to be a huge issue. Vincenzo needs at least one guy who can set a high pace on the decisive climbs. I fail to see who can do that from the riders who are currently scheduled to race the Giro. Could Ellisonde or Mollema double up from the Tour? Not too likely I'd say. I agree with RedRick that it's very unlikely for Porte to be in any sort of shape at the Giro.
Other than that... Conci is a good rider but can he reduce a group to 10 riders in the high mountains? Very much doubt that. Brambilla was never a great climber, even in his prime. Mosca and Bernard are baroudeurs. Weening is about 73 and let's not start about Antonio. Honestly, it's looking grim.

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah, none of those guys are bad, it's just that none are great either. Trek was already looking weak at the top end, pretty much relying on just one guy as the rider who can properly decimate the field to prepare an attack and that guy was Ciccone. Nibali's big hope has to be Mollema.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, none of those guys are bad, it's just that none are great either. Trek was already looking weak at the top end, pretty much relying on just one guy as the rider who can properly decimate the field to prepare an attack and that guy was Ciccone. Nibali's big hope has to be Mollema.

Slongo: "Steven, this is an emergency, but us too must not be afraid to win or lose. Call Alberto"

 

[Rollthedice]

Yeah, none of those guys are bad, it's just that none are great either. Trek was already looking weak at the top end, pretty much relying on just one guy as the rider who can properly decimate the field to prepare an attack and that guy was Ciccone. Nibali's big hope has to be Mollema.

Don't remember Mollema working for anybody and he might get a bit depressed after missing the top 5 in Le Tour and top 10 in the Worlds.

 

[Red Rick]

Don't remember Mollema working for anybody and he might get a bit depressed after missing the top 5 in Le Tour and top 10 in the Worlds.

Mollema worked for Contador fine in 2017. He even worked for Dumoulin in 2017 too.

Also Mollema has said he wants to do all 3 GTs in a year one day, so I don't think he hates racing so much. But this is probably too much.

 

[yaco]

He is resting, no training whatsoever, it's a stop. Ruled out of the Worlds. Doesn't know when he will be able to pedal again, uncertainty. That's the situation right now.

Ciccone must have got unlucky - There's no rhyme 'nor' reason with COVID19.

 

[SafeBet]

I'm actually kind of thrilled to see Nibali ride a GT as an underdog with no team and zero responsabilities to keep the race in check. Most teams will be weak at the Giro, racing might be less controlled than usual and Nibali should thrive in such environment.

 

[Gigs_98]

I'm actually kind of thrilled to see Nibali ride a GT as an underdog with no team and zero responsabilities to keep the race in check. Most teams will be weak at the Giro, racing might be less controlled than usual and Nibali should thrive in such environment.

Agree that nobody having a good team is probably better for Nibali than everyone having a good team.
But as his team is completely independent of any other team not having Ciccone is still a lot worse than having Ciccone

 

[Red Rick]

Surely it's a disastrous thing to have no team instead of a decent one.

 

[Rollthedice]

Surely it's a disastrous thing to have no team instead of a decent one.

They can bring Mosca to do a remake of the Kozhatayev cameo on Colle dell'Agnello.

 

[Sestriere]

I'm actually kind of thrilled to see Nibali ride a GT as an underdog with no team and zero responsabilities to keep the race in check. Most teams will be weak at the Giro, racing might be less controlled than usual and Nibali should thrive in such environment.

Nibali likes a high pace before his attacks though. If it is a lot of start stop racing and rather slow pace before the final climb I don't think it particularly suits him. If the teams are so weak that it comes down to man against man from 50 km out every stage it may be different again, but that's not really how modern cycling works most of the time, is it?

 

[SafeBet]

I probably haven't made myself clear.
From the point of view of a Nibali's fan this is obviously bad news. But for the overall race entertainment having weak teams all around might be the best thing happening to a GT.
Also to note: Trek had been pulling groups for no reason in these last few italian races and I feared this might be the case at the Giro as well, having Ciccone set the pace for half the climb while he's clearly a different type of rider.

I honestly believe winning the Giro is kind of a long shot for Nibali anyway. He'll need to follow the best riders, be opportunistic, place a couple of strong attacks in the hardest stages and hope the others have at least one bad day. And even in that case, if one team like Astana comes with the extra gear they had in August there won't be much to do about it.

I'm clearly very sad for Ciccone, who's had his fair share of serious health issues in the past. Hopefully he'll come back stronger as he's done in the past.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Was Slongo a ds in those races? I get thatNibali wants to have him around, but no way he should be calling the shots in the teamcar.

 

[Red Rick]

I think it's 90% gonna come down to the level Nibali reaches himself anyway. Strangely I think his best climbing performance last year was his stage win in the Tour. And with the Gavia out I don't think the Giro route was great for Nibs last year.

With the Astana's I have a feeling they've cracked the code much more for one day races than for stage races.

It does feel like his last decent chance sadly.

 

[Gigs_98]

I probably haven't made myself clear.
From the point of view of a Nibali's fan this is obviously bad news. But for the overall race entertainment having weak teams all around might be the best thing happening to a GT.
Also to note: Trek had been pulling groups for no reason in these last few italian races and I feared this might be the case at the Giro as well, having Ciccone set the pace for half the climb while he's clearly a different type of rider.

I honestly believe winning the Giro is kind of a long shot for Nibali anyway. He'll need to follow the best riders, be opportunistic, place a couple of strong attacks in the hardest stages and hope the others have at least one bad day. And even in that case, if one team like Astana comes with the extra gear they had in August there won't be much to do about it.

I'm clearly very sad for Ciccone, who's had his fair share of serious health issues in the past. Hopefully he'll come back stronger as he's done in the past.

I don't know, it kinda feels like Nibali's gt winning days are over but then who is gonna win it instead? Fuglsang? Kruijswijk? Thomas? That really sounds like beatable competition. If he is still as good as the last two years and he peaks properly, I can see it happening. That last week really should suit him

 

[Sestriere]

Who would honestly be a bigger favourite than Nibali going into the Giro?

We have Fuglsang, who could never transfer his level from one-week stage races and classics to GTs. Even last year, when he dominated the Dauphiné, he came to the Tour and was riding for a lower Top10 spot. I just don't think day-to-day recovery and the very high mountains are his cup of tee and that's fine. Or maybe I'm missing something..

Vlasov has never ridden a GT. Betting him for the win is a huge long shot.

I am skeptical whether Thomas will be fully motivated for the Giro.. He had no reason not to be in good shape for the season restart with the Tour in the near future, but he wasn't...

Carapaz will come from the Tour (if he''l race at all). No chance to win imo, as he'll have to work a lot for Bernal during the next two weeks. And he also hasn't been chilling so far.

Yates is a bit of an unknown to me. He has shown that he can string it together for three weeks in the Vuelta. But maybe 2018 was just his year, since last year he wasn't really able to continue his form. Also the very high mountains in the last week are not his favourite terrain I think. Imo, he is the most dangerous rider to Nibali.

With Kruiswijk we will have to see how well he could prepare after his injuries. He could be one of the best climbers in the last week. But I think he has a couple of weaknesses, mainly descending and also not really a winner's mentality. But maybe Jumbo finally learned how to win the biggest of races with Roglic?

Then there's the riders that will probably fill up the Top10 like Majka, Kelderman, Hindley, Hagen, Conti, Pozzo, Soler, perhaps Sosa without having a real shot at winning the whole thing.

Or am I fundamentally missing something in my assessment? Maybe it's just my Nibali glasses deceiving me in this case.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Individually it's pretty hard to see any of these riders winning the Giro. But someone has to.

 

[SafeBet]

I don't know, it kinda feels like Nibali's gt winning days are over but then who is gonna win it instead? Fuglsang? Kruijswijk? Thomas? That really sounds like beatable competition.

This was exactly the general sentiment before Giro 2016, which was considered Nibali's race to lose before it started.
He was much closer to his peak years and had probably the strongest team in the race. And yet he needed a miracle to pull it off.

Any of the riders mentioned could beat him. Yates in 2018 shape would beat him too. There's Vlasov who looks like the next big thing and possibly other young riders who will step up (Almeida?).

 

[Red Rick]

I don't know, it kinda feels like Nibali's gt winning days are over but then who is gonna win it instead? Fuglsang? Kruijswijk? Thomas? That really sounds like beatable competition. If he is still as good as the last two years and he peaks properly, I can see it happening. That last week really should suit him

Stage 19 was basically what Nibali was all about. Get dropped on the Manghen, come back, then be the main aggressor 2 climbs later. I think the first 12 days of that Giro were easier than ideal for him.

 

[Red Rick]

This was exactly the general sentiment before Giro 2016, which was considered Nibali's race to lose before it started.
He was much closer to his peak years and had probably the strongest team in the race. And yet he needed a miracle to pull it off.

Any of the riders mentioned could beat him. Yates in 2018 shape would beat him too. There's Vlasov who looks like the next big thing and possibly other young riders who will step up (Almeida?).

Yates has shown the form to beat Nibali in a Giro once and collapsed before winning said Giro. Nibali lost last year's Giro more due to tactical mistakes than due to age. You have guys who are pretty decent top 5 climbing references like Landa and MAL who weren't exactly flying away from him except for random seconds on more explosive Cat 2s.

 

[topcat]

It's a bit early to speculate on this. We still have to see Roglic collapse at the tour first. At the moment, I would say Nibali is the favourite for the Giro but not the outstanding favourite.

 

[SafeBet]

Yates has shown the form to beat Nibali in a Giro once and collapsed before winning said Giro. Nibali lost last year's Giro more due to tactical mistakes than due to age. You have guys who are pretty decent top 5 climbing references like Landa and MAL who weren't exactly flying away from him except for random seconds on more explosive Cat 2s.

But he wasn't flying away from them either.
When was the last time Nibali dropped all of his competitors in a mountain stage in a GT? I can't think of anything after 2016.

The thing with Nibali is that he needs very specific conditions to win a GT at this point of his career. He will be up there, a podium is very likely, but winning will be hard.