To clarify I also believe that there's a bigger chance for Nibali to finish inside the top 10 or even top 5 on the ITT, than Fuglsang reaching the top 10. Fuglsang could even finish outside the top 20. But If he manages to avoid accidents and/or cracking until then, I think he could possibly do one of the best ones of his career. With the level he's shown the last two seasons, I wouldn't be surprised, if he did.
But Nibali is surely the favourite amongst the two, because he always delivers in GTs, when he's going for the GC (if he avoids mechanicals uphill, that is).
(Am I safe from the shark pool now?)