Vingegaard vs Pogačar - The Duel

[Peter von]

Super Mario, from Super Mario Bros. fame, is actually called Mario Mario. Not joking.

true it was in the movie and everything!

 

[TrekCyclist]

Recently, I read Tyler Hamilton's book again. There is a chapter where he describes training with / under Ferrari, and how Ferrari was very keen on weight, and always wanted him and Armstrong to loose more weight.
But looking at Vingegaard and Pogacar now, they seem to have taken this to a completely different level, compared to Hamilton / Armstrong.

 

[tobydawq]

Recently, I read Tyler Hamilton's book again. There is a chapter where he describes training with / under Ferrari, and how Ferrari was very keen on weight, and always wanted him and Armstrong to loose more weight.
But looking at Vingegaard and Pogacar now, they seem to have taken this to a completely different level, compared to Hamilton / Armstrong.

Do they? How so?

 

[scribers]

They lost even more weight

 

[scribers]

Don't put an a in.

It was almost right, though it's poel instead of pool. Still pronounced like pool. In English, that is, not in Dutch. That would be like pole. In English. Not Dutch. Nor Polish. You're welcome for that clarification.

To be fair, if I were on the wheel of fortune I would have bought an E and it would have filled in all of the question marks

 

[tobydawq]

Another fantastic chapter written in this saga.

 

[Peyroteo94]

This is the real deal. 4th duel between them. They are legends!

 

[Gigs_98]

So chapter 4 is well and truly on. Absolutely remarkable.

Concerning today, as great as Vingegaard looks, I don't think he's actually back at his best and him beating Pogacar today actually has more to do with Pogacar not having a great day than with Vingegaard having massively improved since the Galibier. He was clearly the second best climber there with Remco and Roglic actually being off his wheel much faster than they were on Puy Mary today. Perhaps if there was a second climb after Galibier he could have closed the gap there as well. We'll never know, but it's striking how similar the result of stage 4 looks to how today looked at the start of Pertus.

Pogacar on the other hand looked very strong when he originally accelerated, but him gaining only like 10 seconds on Roglic and Evenepoel on Pertus is unexpected. Especially considering Evenepoel lost 30 seconds on one kilometer of Puy Mary. All things considered Evenepoel actually gained time on Pogacar from the top of Puy Mary to the finish, but I can put a lot of that down to Pogacar and Vingegaard not pulling as hard as they could have once the stage became easier. But not gaining much time on Evenepoel on a climb where he went really hard is just significantly worse than what I'd expect from peak Pogacar. Maybe it was bad fuelling, maybe it was really bad pacing, blowing himself up trying to keep a gap on Vingegaard or maybe he's actually feeling the Giro in his legs. They pyrenees should reveal the reason, but if he gets back to his peak level I think it's still his to lose.

 

[Netserk]

Pogacar on the other hand looked very strong when he originally accelerated, but him gaining only like 10 seconds on Roglic and Evenepoel on Pertus is unexpected. Especially considering Evenepoel lost 30 seconds on one kilometer of Puy Mary. All things considered Evenepoel actually gained time on Pogacar from the top of Puy Mary to the finish, but I can put a lot of that down to Pogacar and Vingegaard not pulling as hard as they could have once the stage became easier. But not gaining much time on Evenepoel on a climb where he went really hard is just significantly worse than what I'd expect from peak Pogacar. Maybe it was bad fuelling, maybe it was really bad pacing, blowing himself up trying to keep a gap on Vingegaard or maybe he's actually feeling the Giro in his legs. They pyrenees should reveal the reason, but if he gets back to his peak level I think it's still his to lose.

He was ~18" faster than Rogla and Evenepoel on a 12½ minutes effort after attacking hard on Peyrol and keeping the pressure on between the climbs. So while Vingegaard made him look weak there, he was still by far the second best on Perthus.

 

[CleanCiclismo]

imp Pogačar overestimated his stamina and underestimated Jonas and the climbs. If he attacked like that on the second to last climb he would likely win the stage with around 20s gap.

 

[Gigs_98]

He was ~18" faster than Rogla and Evenepoel on a 12½ minutes effort after attacking hard on Peyrol and keeping the pressure on between the climbs. So while Vingegaard made him look weak there, he was still by far the second best on Perthus.

Hm, live it looked like 35 seconds at the bottom and 45 at the top. 8 more seconds does indeed make it sound more impressive on a rather short climb, but I'm still not convinced I watched peak Pogacar today. But maybe I'm also just not used to seeing someone other than Vingegaard relatively close to him because Remco and Roglic weren't around in 2022 and 2023.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

imp Pogačar overestimated his stamina and underestimated Jonas and the climbs. If he attacked like that on the second to last climb he would likely win the stage with around 20s gap.

Possibly, but there's also a chance that Vingegaard would have been straight on his wheel which he failed to be during the actual attack.

 

[tobydawq]

Possibly, but there's also a chance that Vingegaard would have been straight on his wheel which he failed to be during the actual attack.

I thought it was Tour over when Vingegaard didn't even try to respond to the acceleration. But no. He was a bit lucky that Primoz chauffeured him down the Puy Mary but was then really strong for the rest of the stage.

Pogacar has perhaps been lured a little bit into a trap this spring where all his long-range attacks have been completely unanswered.

But losing the sprint.... That's not good.

 

[Gigs_98]

Same thing when he destroys everyone in LBL. Gets a huge gap quickly, then settles into a steady state where he doesn't gain time on a group behind that fast anymore and the gap is more or less stable. This is where the popular narrative will then be that he's chilling but it doesn't quite work like that.

Also, Roglic and Evenepoel are both simply really strong this race, cause they're quite literally closer to the Big 2 than the guys behind.

It's not quite the same thing though. In one day races the part where the gap stabalizes is usually rolling or flat terrain. Today it was on another climb where it was mostly everyone on their own. I usually just don't expect a trend of respective climbing strength to change as much from one climb to another as it did today, so I think there was some factor of Pogacars legs not responding quite as well as he hoped.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

But losing the sprint.... That's not good.

‚Second place is not good‘ Alberto Contador

 

[tobydawq]

It's not quite the same thing though. In one day races the part where the gap stabalizes is usually rolling or flat terrain. Today it was on another climb where it was mostly everyone on their own. I usually just don't expect a trend of respective climbing strength to change as much from one climb to another as it did today, so I think there was some factor of Pogacars legs not responding quite as well as he hoped.

Agreed, although on Puy Mary the difference was primarily anaerobic explosion over the top (note how Pogi is almost reeled back in but accelerates over the top to take a lot of speed with him on the descent which Jonas absolutely doesn't) and then it was steady state on the Pertus. So not quite the same.

 

[jono]

When was the last time Jonas had a bad day in the Tour?

 

[tobydawq]

When was the last time Jonas had a bad day in the Tour?

Probably stage 8 in 2021 if you want to count that. Otherwise, I don't think he really has had that. But he has also always had a better preparation than this year so it's not automatic that he can just keep that going.

 

[Didinho]

Great battle. Everyone thought it would be over after today.
Pogi couldn’t hold his pace. Vingo impressive comeback. The race is on. Hope they could hold it close untill the TT.

I still think Pogi will make a solo stick and get a bigger gap in GC. Didn’t look like himself today.

 

[Nick2413]

When was the last time Jonas had a bad day in the Tour?

Pretty much never, certainly as team leader. He lost 4 min on stage 8 2021 but also crashed on that stage and Roglic had not yet abandoned.

 

[Cookster15]

Wow, very unexpected result. Good comments above. Still many unanswered questions. Next chapter is the Pyrenees. I am pleased to see Remco and Roglic riding well for best of the rest.

Also after today I hope Ayuso is more reliable support for Pogacar.

 

[Vudy]

When was the last time Jonas had a bad day in the Tour?

In the tour? Never...

 

[Samu Cuenca]

In the tour? Never...

He could have had an absolutely awful day yesterday, for all we know.

 

[snipeheem]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1811085601510412666

View: https://x.com/NaichacaCycling/status/1811085601510412666

 

[Krzysztof_O]

He was ~18" faster than Rogla and Evenepoel on a 12½ minutes effort after attacking hard on Peyrol and keeping the pressure on between the climbs. So while Vingegaard made him look weak there, he was still by far the second best on Perthus.

While I do think Pog could've been affected by energy crisis near the end of this climb it doesn't change the fact that Vingo's climb was great and should worry guys in UAE, considering what's ahead.