Vingegaard vs Pogačar - The Duel

[Gigs_98]

Yeah I think Vingegaard is gonna win. This looked like a replay of stage 1 last year so I don't see much reason not to expect a replay of the rest of last years Tour.

 

[tobydawq]

Yeah I think Vingegaard is gonna win. This looked like a replay of stage 1 last year so I don't see much reason not to expect a replay of the rest of last years Tour.

I think their respective preparations relative to last year should give plenty of reason for that.

 

[Potomac]

Vingo looks great, much better than I predicted after his injuries. But there are still 19 days of racing ahead.

 

[AnotherArmChair]

I love lance's comment that Vinge should have said to Pog when he was flicking the elbow

"hey man chill I just got out of the hospital"

 

[Cookster15]

Yeah I think Vingegaard is gonna win. This looked like a replay of stage 1 last year so I don't see much reason not to expect a replay of the rest of last years Tour.

Too early to say. Vingegaard has lost more training volume from a punctured lung after his horrific April crash and resulting injuries than Pogacar lost last year from a broken wrist. Last year Pogacar wasn't exposed until stage 17. Today told me Vingo's lung injury won't affect his peak level. But his ability to recover after multiple hard stages is yet to be seen and must still be in question.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Lets talk about wheelsucking.

 

[Taxus4a]

Inpressive Vingegaard, he is better at long climbs but today he offered a level to win Lieje at a moment he id supossed to be at an 85 % of his shape and the team was thinking to put another leader or to put him out the start just 2 weeks ago. Vingegard is super... The way he counter attack was impressive. Pogacar acceleration at climbs like this has been impossible to follow this year till today. The doubt is just now if he will suffer at the end of the route the lack of preparation, or just one bad day...and as well how much afected today at the result the hot weather. But Pogacar and Matxin must be impressed and afraid of him.

 

[dennisdy]

Acta, non verba.

This retired Latin teacher loves your post!

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Too early to say. Vingegaard has lost more training volume from a punctured lung after his horrific April crash and resulting injuries than Pogacar lost last year from a broken wrist. Last year Pogacar wasn't exposed until stage 17. Today told me Vingo's lung injury won't affect his peak level. But his ability to recover after multiple hard stages is yet to be seen and must still be in question.

5 minute effort is super intense and suffering - both anaerobic and aerobic systems engaged, with the latter operating around VO2max level. It's clear that Vingo's max. effort is very strong and lung injury didn't affect it noticeably. Time will tell if he feels comfortably during long and intense efforts (TT, longer climbs) but as you said the main question is if the base of the skyscraper they rose in just 6 weeks is broad enough to last for the whole Tour.

 

[Peter von]

Let’s talk about wheelsucking.

It’s a strong word, but yeah looked to me like Pogi did the most pulling. It was also his move tbf, Jonas looked perfectly happy to just roll in as a group.

Maybe Vingo needed to hold back or maybe he was just happy to burn 3 matches to get Pogi to burn 5 matches.

three years into this rivalry I feel it’s also on Pogi that he needs to stop burning matches at a higher rate than Jonas if he want to avoid any more third week spankings.

 

[Berniece]

It’s a strong word, but yeah looked to me like Pogi did the most pulling. It was also his move tbf, Jonas looked perfectly happy to just roll in as a group.

Maybe Vingo needed to hold back or maybe he was just happy to burn 3 matches to get Pogi to burn 5 matches.

three years into this rivalry I feel it’s also on Pogi that he needs to stop burning matches at a higher rate than Jonas if he want to avoid any more third week spankings.

Didn't Vingegaard do the same last year in the first few stages every time Pogacar attacked and they had a gap with the two of them? Maybe this is because he expects it's only between the two of them, so he rather saves some energy and wants to use it later in the TDF to drop Pogacar. But now that Evenepoel closed that gap, he might pull some more on the Galibier to make sure it's just the two of them.

 

[Peter von]

Didn't Vingegaard do the same last year in the first few stages every time Pogacar attacked and they had a gap with the two of them? Maybe this is because he expects it's only between the two of them, so he rather saves some energy and wants to use it later in the TDF to drop Pogacar. But now that Evenepoel closed that gap, he might pull some more on the Galibier to make sure it's just the two of them.

yeah, last year there was a few, where Jonas didn't want to pull Pogi home to loose the sprint and bonus secs. Thats fair "I am blocking your move, but I'd rather we just stay with the bunch"

Yesterday was perfect for Jonas, spend some energy to get Pogi to do a little extra; Remco presumably also had to work hard to get back. Jonas needs to beat Remco in the high mountains, not the hilly classics stages.

 

[Berniece]

yeah, last year there was a few, where Jonas didn't want to pull Pogi home to loose the sprint and bonus secs. Thats fair "I am blocking your move, but I'd rather we just stay with the bunch"

Yesterday was perfect for Jonas, spend some energy to get Pogi to do a little extra; Remco presumably also had to work hard to get back. Jonas needs to beat Remco in the high mountains, not the hilly classics stages.

I don't think Vingegaard looks at anyone else besides Pogacar, which is probably fair knowing how the others rode this season. Evenepoel was beaten by Jorgenson twice, Roglic almost beaten by Jorgenson... Those aren't performances where Vingegaard should lie awake from.

 

[Peter von]

I don't think Vingegaard looks at anyone else besides Pogacar, which is probably fair knowing how the others rode this season. Evenepoel was beaten by Jorgenson twice, Roglic almost beaten by Jorgenson... Those aren't performances where Vingegaard should lie awake from.

more or less, if you beat Pogi in the high mountains you probably also beat Remco there by a bigger margin. The template is the same.

I am sure if Remco attacks on Galibier, Vingo will at least think about doing something; then he will probably get his team to limit Remco's advantage or even better get UAE to do it.
And yeah a UAE rider get's in the break, Visma will react, a Quick Step ditto... maybe not that alarming.

 

[iBanesto]

Too early to say. Vingegaard has lost more training volume from a punctured lung after his horrific April crash and resulting injuries than Pogacar lost last year from a broken wrist. Last year Pogacar wasn't exposed until stage 17. Today told me Vingo's lung injury won't affect his peak level. But his ability to recover after multiple hard stages is yet to be seen and must still be in question.

Exactly. Who knows if Vingegaard was at his limit and was just bluffing.

19 more days can change a lot.

 

[Medvind]

How will Vinge win the tour? One crucial factor in his two wins has been his team, who have been superstrong.
Is his team as strong as the last two years? I don't think so. Tratnik is no Hooydonck, Laporte is a bit of a question mark, Lemmen is a late substitute, Kelderman is not on the same level as Ayuso/Almedia/Yates, and Jorgenson we don't know if he can be consistent for 3 weeks and do Kuss-like pulls before Vinge attacks.

On La Loze stage last year Jumbo Visma set a brutal high pace from the beginning to tire Pog out, can they do that this year? Not sure.

And can Visma LAB set up an attack for Vinge in the high mountains that puts Pog in red before Vinge launches? Van Aert need to be spectacular, maybe do something like on Hautacam-stage 2022.

Pog know that the 3rd week will be crucial so I'm sure he will ride smarter this year, saving more energy during week 1 and 2 (Maybe we have already seen proof of this). Especially when he has already ridden a grand tour this year. And maybe here the answer is how Vinge wins the tour: Pog fades in the 3rd week because of the Giro. But I think the likelihood for that to happen would have been higher if Vinge's team was on the same level as last year.

 

[kn0s]

How will Vinge win the tour? One crucial factor in his two wins has been his team, who have been superstrong.
Is his team as strong as the last two years? I don't think so. Tratnik is no Hooydonck, Laporte is a bit of a question mark, Lemmen is a late substitute, Kelderman is not on the same level as Ayuso/Almedia/Yates, and Jorgenson we don't know if he can be consistent for 3 weeks and do Kuss-like pulls before Vinge attacks.

On La Loze stage last year Jumbo Visma set a brutal high pace from the beginning to tire Pog out, can they do that this year? Not sure.

And can Visma LAB set up an attack for Vinge in the high mountains that puts Pog in red before Vinge launches? Van Aert need to be spectacular, maybe do something like on Hautacam-stage 2022.

Pog know that the 3rd week will be crucial so I'm sure he will ride smarter this year, saving more energy during week 1 and 2 (Maybe we have already seen proof of this). Especially when he has already ridden a grand tour this year. And maybe here the answer is how Vinge wins the tour: Pog fades in the 3rd week because of the Giro. But I think the likelihood for that to happen would have been higher if Vinge's team was on the same level as last year.

Realistically if he can follow tomorrow, he will lose some time on the first TT. He then will need to beat pogi straight up without too much help. If he just keeps at it pogi and the team normally makes some mistakes during the tour that he may be able to take advantage of. Else he needs a Marie Blanc, last TT like perfomance to win it.

 

[Medvind]

When Jumbo LAB brought in Jorgenson I think they at first saw him as rider who could do what Hooydonck did and maybe a bit more, and that he would be a good replacement for Hooydonck in the tour team, being that diesel who could set a high steady pace on the 2nd or 3rd last climb tiring Pog out. But with Kuss out and Jorgenson showing he is GC-material Jorgeson's role has changed, he is now Vinge's last dom in the mountains.

It's here I think Jumbo LAB has a problem. They hoped for a Kuss in last years shape, being the last guy for Vinge, and to use Jorgenson's diesellike qualities more to tire Pog out. Question now is how they the will tire Pog out. Will Lemmen, Laporte, van Aert, Benoot and Tratnik be enough to ride hard over several mountains. And will Vinge be sufficiently prepared for it, considering he only had six weeks of training before the tour.

 

[Potomac]

more or less, if you beat Pogi in the high mountains you probably also beat Remco there by a bigger margin. The template is the same.

I am sure if Remco attacks on Galibier, Vingo will at least think about doing something; then he will probably get his team to limit Remco's advantage or even better get UAE to do it.
And yeah a UAE rider get's in the break, Visma will react, a Quick Step ditto... maybe not that alarming.

That seems improbable to me.

 

[Peter von]

That seems improbable to me.

it is quite improbable.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Maybe Pogi will utilize the whole UAE squad to set record-breaking pace on Galibier (or try attacking Vingo with his super-doms). If he doesn't then I think JV may actually setup Vingo for an attack there. It's gonna be fun tomorrow, methinks.

 

[CyclistAbi]

So looking at discussion about wheelsucking in this and that other thread, the data seems rather consistent, wheelsucker will eventually win. So maybe if UAE goes all in tomorrow, and Jonas isn't dropped, then Pogi likely should reconsider his approach. For the battle for second in between Pogi and Jonas not to be already decided.

 

[Froome]

So looking at discussion about wheelsucking in this and that other thread, the data seems rather consistent, wheelsucker will eventually win. So maybe if UAE goes all in tomorrow, and Jonas isn't dropped, then Pogi likely should reconsider his approach. For the battle for second in between Pogi and Jonas not to be already decided.

Battle for second? What?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Battle for second? What?

Rogla is in long-range defense mode now but will kill them both at the end.

 

[Miha81]

Rogla is in long-range defense mode now but will kill them both at the end.

Based on what I saw it could happen only if he actually brings gun