Vuelta '20: Stage 1: Irún - Arrate. Eibar (10/20/2020)

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I liked how Jumbo used Kuss today (stage 1). The strategy made Carapaz burn some energy chasing. I think Carapaz would have won the stage if Jumbo just kept Kuss pulling the group evenly up to the last kilometer.
 
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To be fair, Mas is more of a diesel than a punchy climber like Carapaz. Just because of the TDF (in regards to attacking- which I counted 1 time). He attacked and worked quite a bit in the 2018 Vuelta, and won the queen stage. He pulled just as much as Miguel Angel Lopez that day. Granted, he only went off the front one time in the TDF, but the whole team was kind of hanging on for dear life and it wasn’t Mas’s job to go in the breakaway every day like Verona and Soler.

Today, like in the TDF, the only thing launching an attack would’ve done was put him in the red like Carthy. At one point Jumbo had 3 guys in the lead group, including the guy who shut down almost every Pogacar attack at the TDF.

Carapaz rode a great Giro last year, but he didn’t get up the road at the TDF until he was out of contention. So I don’t see how Carapaz has shown that much more than Mas up until this point. Both have 2 Top 5 GT finishes at this point, while Mas is a few years younger. Neither of whom compare favorably with Roglic on paper. Carapaz gets a bonus over Mas for his GT win, but there’s not that much difference in their palmares, and Carapaz has a head start.
Not disputing that. But to say he showed more potential to contend with Roglic here because he was allowed in breaks (albeit he was very impressive in them) while Mas was grinding his way into form and the Top 5 is a bit unfair.
No, but beating Roglic (in the Giro) indicates more potential to beat Roglic than getting an anonymous 5th in the Tour for sure.

Look, I like Mas and would love For him to do well, but Carapaz beating Nibali and Roglic in the Giro through aggressive riding is more impressive than Mas getting second to Simon Yates in the Vuelta through defensive riding.

Relevant Tour performances, while more recent, are irrelevant, because Carapaz went unexpectedly and out of form as a domestique, whereas Mas targeted GC.
In conclusion, it seems reasonable to rate Carapaz a step higher, but it would be no shock for Mas to do better; it’s just slightly less probable than the opposite.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
No, but beating Roglic (in the Giro) indicates more potential to beat Roglic than getting an anonymous 5th in the Tour for sure.

Look, I like Mas and would love For him to do well, but Carapaz beating Nibali and Roglic in the Giro through aggressive riding is more impressive than Mas getting second to Simon Yates in the Vuelta through defensive riding.

Relevant Tour performances, while more recent, are irrelevant, because Carapaz went unexpectedly and out of form as a domestique, whereas Mas targeted GC.
In conclusion, it seems reasonable to rate Carapaz a step higher, but it would be no shock for Mas to do better; it’s just slightly less probable than the opposite.
LOL Carapaz rode the 2018 Vuelta that was so unimpressive. So did Nairo, Uran, Pinot, Kelderman, Nibali, Buchmannn, Valverde, Superman, Majka, Mollema and Kruijswijk. and Zakarin. A deeper lineup than the 2019 Giro, which Carapaz benefitted from not being marked because Roglic and Nibali were focused on Landa. Carapaz still barely won, and likely wouldn’t have if Nibali had followed him. That’s not to take away from Carapaz victory, but he wasn’t really a marked man at the Giro. Don’t make it out like he was a favorite everyone was marking. They let him up the road waiting for Landa to attack and then Roglic and Nibali slowpedaled their way to the finish. Carapaz was 3 minutes behind Nibali after Pinarello and they didn’t consider him a threat until it was too late.
 
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LOL Carapaz rode the 2018 Vuelta that was so unimpressive. So did Nairo, Uran, Pinot, Kelderman, Nibali, Buchmannn, Valverde, Superman, Majka, Mollema and Kruijswijk. and Zakarin. A deeper lineup than the 2019 Giro, which Carapaz benefitted from not being marked because Roglic and Nibali were focused on Landa. Carapaz still barely won, and likely wouldn’t have if Nibali had followed him. That’s not to take away from Carapaz victory, but he wasn’t really a marked man at the Giro. Don’t make it out like he was a favorite everyone was marking. They let him up the road waiting for Landa to attack and then Roglic and Nibali slowpedaled their way to the finish. Carapaz was 3 minutes behind Nibali after Pinarello and they didn’t consider him a threat until it was too late.
Seems I struck a nerve.
 

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