Vuelta '20: Stage 1: Irún - Arrate. Eibar (10/20/2020)

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We really out here comparing Chris Froome to Don Alejandro? Theres a world off difference between those two riders atm despite Valverde being 40 or whatever he is.
I'm not trying to compare them. I'm just saying that just because you did well in Gt's in the past, doesn't justify you a place on the team when your form is currently ***. Albeit, Froome has good reason to be out of form.
 
The first stage has made a lot clear already. There are three favourites: Roglic, Carapaz and Mas. They're also the leaders of the three strongest teams: Jumbo, Ineos and Movistar. A nice surprise is the presence of Esteban Chaves in that first group. The reborn Colombian can provide some fireworks in the mountain stages.
 
I didn't watch the stage -- have to get some work done this fall -- but my initial thought was why would Roglic go for red so early? Let someone else take the jersey for a while etc. Right now he's just consigned Dumoulin to domestique duty. Maybe that's where TD is at this year but already we've got a situation similar to the TdF, where Roglic might be just taking 6 seconds here and 4 seconds there but not delivering a knockout blow.
Because the last week probably only has one nailed on GC day - Ride hard in the first week and make a selection.
 
Indeed who could forget the Legendary Alberto!
I was gonna write Froome being the best of the 2010s but the 21st century sounded so much more grandiose :tearsofjoy: Besides, Armstrong is far removed in the past, about my age, that I think of him as the 1990s... Sorry... And Alberto, well, I guess, I needed to be hooked up to an IV bag of pure caffeine to wake me up when I was writing it... That was an inexcusable oversight:p
 
Perceived strength + pedigree + team + route suitability, IMO, indicate Carapaz is a big favorite along with Roglic

I love the Mas love, but nothing he has done indicates to me that he will take on Roglic and Carapaz. For all the talk of him as the new Contador, he never attacks, just holds wheels. Roglic and Carapaz are proven attackers. Sure, Roglic hasn't attacked from far (lately), but both he and Carapaz have taken wins with big attacks in GTs. Mas, just floats along.
To be fair, Mas is more of a diesel than a punchy climber like Carapaz. Just because of the TDF (in regards to attacking- which I counted 1 time). He attacked and worked quite a bit in the 2018 Vuelta, and won the queen stage. He pulled just as much as Miguel Angel Lopez that day. Granted, he only went off the front one time in the TDF, but the whole team was kind of hanging on for dear life and it wasn’t Mas’s job to go in the breakaway every day like Verona and Soler.

Today, like in the TDF, the only thing launching an attack would’ve done was put him in the red like Carthy. At one point Jumbo had 3 guys in the lead group, including the guy who shut down almost every Pogacar attack at the TDF.

Carapaz rode a great Giro last year, but he didn’t get up the road at the TDF until he was out of contention. So I don’t see how Carapaz has shown that much more than Mas up until this point. Both have 2 Top 5 GT finishes at this point, while Mas is a few years younger. Neither of whom compare favorably with Roglic on paper. Carapaz gets a bonus over Mas for his GT win, but there’s not that much difference in their palmares, and Carapaz has a head start.
 
I actually always thought that both, Mühlberger and Großschartner, are capable of doing the same GC wise as Konrad (i.e. top 10 in the Giro or Vuelta) but this today still was a surprise. Wasn't going that well at the Tour (but maybe thats not even bad in hindsight).
According to him, he hit top shape in April in lockdown. After he wasn't feeling like that again during the summer/Tour but the good feeling came back right before the Vuelta. I think a Top 10 is feasible, though wouldn't be surprised to see him have an off day on a longer climb. He does have Schelling as support who looked good today and was there until Arrate started which is all you can ask for from a Neo like him.
 
Carapaz rode a great Giro last year, but he didn’t get up the road at the TDF until he was out of contention. So I don’t see how Carapaz has shown that much more than Mas up until this point.
Carapaz was pulled out from the midst of his training for Giro and was riding in support of Bernal... Once Bernal abandoned, he was there just to train and save energy for Vuelta... No need to burn his form for no reason... Given how collected he rode at the Tour I think it was clear that his focus would be Vuelta after they took the defense of Giro away from him...
 
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Carapaz was pulled out from the midst of his training for Giro and was riding in support of Bernal... Once Bernal abandoned, he was there just to train and save energy for Vuelta... No need to burn his form for no reason... Given how collected he rode at the Tour I think it was clear that his focus would be Vuelta after they took the defense of Giro away from him...
Not disputing that. But to say he showed more potential to contend with Roglic here because he was allowed in breaks (albeit he was very impressive in them) while Mas was grinding his way into form and the Top 5 is a bit unfair.
 
To be fair, Mas is more of a diesel than a punchy climber like Carapaz. Just because of the TDF (in regards to attacking- which I counted 1 time). He attacked and worked quite a bit in the 2018 Vuelta, and won the queen stage. He pulled just as much as Miguel Angel Lopez that day. Granted, he only went off the front one time in the TDF, but the whole team was kind of hanging on for dear life and it wasn’t Mas’s job to go in the breakaway every day like Verona and Soler.

Today, like in the TDF, the only thing launching an attack would’ve done was put him in the red like Carthy. At one point Jumbo had 3 guys in the lead group, including the guy who shut down almost every Pogacar attack at the TDF.

Carapaz rode a great Giro last year, but he didn’t get up the road at the TDF until he was out of contention. So I don’t see how Carapaz has shown that much more than Mas up until this point. Both have 2 Top 5 GT finishes at this point, while Mas is a few years younger. Neither of whom compare favorably with Roglic on paper. Carapaz gets a bonus over Mas for his GT win, but there’s not that much difference in their palmares, and Carapaz has a head start.
Yeah, and JV is so ridiculous, that Dumo is their 4th best guy here.
 

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