If Contador doesn't go from fairly far out (10km), I can't see anyone else than Rodriguez winning. His high-mountain climbing has definitely improved. Heck, he was 4th (and first of the contenders) on the Stelvio (against a less strong field, true) and is obviously in extremely good shape + winning mood, even finishing 7th in an ITT, not to mention he has the best domestique in the Vuelta.
Would like to see Moncoutie finally go for it tomorrow as well (my Velogames team will thank him!) and perhaps a few of the failing GC men (VDB, De Gendt, Menchov, Cobo)