Vuelta 2017 stage 10 Caravaca to Alhama 164,8 km

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ice&fire said:
If Rojas stops working Trentin waits for Rosón and Van Rensburg, Trentin wins anyways and Rojas finishes 4th
Trentin is the favourite in that situation, no matter what. But the chance of him losing from a four or five man group, including two opponents on the same team, is bigger than the chance of him losing from a two man group. Similarly, if he's the only one working and Rojas has been sitting on him, the chances of him botching the sprint even if the other two don't get back are marginally higher. Therefore, the correct play in that situation is always to refuse to work.

Which 2 places Movistar get between 2nd and 5th is trivia.
 
Re: Re:

Zinoviev Letter said:
ice&fire said:
If Rojas stops working Trentin waits for Rosón and Van Rensburg, Trentin wins anyways and Rojas finishes 4th
Trentin is the favourite in that situation, no matter what. But the chance of him losing from a four or five man group, including two opponents on the same team, is bigger than the chance of him losing from a two man group. Similarly, if he's the only one working and Rojas has been sitting on him, the chances of him botching the sprint even if the other two don't get back are marginally higher. Therefore, the correct play in that situation is always to refuse to work.

Which 2 places Movistar get between 2nd and 5th is trivia.
But there would not have been 2 Movistar riders in that group.
 
A case could be made for both decisions. The decision to not do any work at all is probably the most favorable yes. But still no need to insult a rider like that.

Soler would've never played a part in this tale.
 
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shalgo said:
Zinoviev Letter said:
ice&fire said:
If Rojas stops working Trentin waits for Rosón and Van Rensburg, Trentin wins anyways and Rojas finishes 4th
Trentin is the favourite in that situation, no matter what. But the chance of him losing from a four or five man group, including two opponents on the same team, is bigger than the chance of him losing from a two man group. Similarly, if he's the only one working and Rojas has been sitting on him, the chances of him botching the sprint even if the other two don't get back are marginally higher. Therefore, the correct play in that situation is always to refuse to work.

Which 2 places Movistar get between 2nd and 5th is trivia.
But there would not have been 2 Movistar riders in that group.
Even if his own teammate doesn't get back, a clearly slower sprinter should prefer a group of 3, 4 or 5 in a finale. That gives a preferable tactical situation in a number of ways - it allows an opportunity to work over the strongest sprinter by attacking in turn, it creates a more complex sprint with more opportunity for the favourite to mistime things and more unpredictability. And if nobody gets back, at least Trentin has done some extra work and Rojas is a little more rested.

Working in a 2 man group with a sprinter who is clearly faster than you is a sucker's move.
 
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Brullnux said:
ice&fire said:
If Rojas stops working Trentin waits for Rosón and Van Rensburg, Trentin wins anyways and Rojas finishes 4th
No way does Rojas, a semi sprinter, lose in a sprint to Roson, a climber. Rojas messed up as he always does.
Rojas lost a sprint to Poljanski the other day; don't underestimate his ability to find unexpected ways to lose.
 
Fine stage. Now lets on to the first real mountain stage - too bad it isn't Calar Alto from the hardest side, thats actually a super hard climb. But I don't know if it would have been possible from this direction, I guess not.
 
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Valv.Piti said:
Fine stage. Now lets on to the first real mountain stage - too bad it isn't Calar Alto from the hardest side, thats actually a super hard climb. But I don't know if it would have been possible from this direction, I guess not.
They could have climbed Collado Garcia via Olula del Rio before Velefique and it would have been an awesome stage.

Collado Garcia via Olula del Rio: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/__26iSnLHYMk/TGpOhs_seuI/AAAAAAAAARQ/NTixjRBgdAc/s1600/Collado+Garc%C3%ADa+%281246m%29+%28por+Olula+del+R%C3%ADo%29+%2801%29+Perfil+%2824k-3,29%25%29+%28171C%29+%281%C2%AA%29.jpg
 
Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Fine stage. Now lets on to the first real mountain stage - too bad it isn't Calar Alto from the hardest side, thats actually a super hard climb. But I don't know if it would have been possible from this direction, I guess not.
It would have been further away from whatever climb they could add before. Instead, they're doing this with no flat between Velefique's descent and the start of the climb.
http://www.ramacabici.com/altimetrias/almeria/calaralto02.htm
 
Re: Re:

ice&fire said:
Valv.Piti said:
Fine stage. Now lets on to the first real mountain stage - too bad it isn't Calar Alto from the hardest side, thats actually a super hard climb. But I don't know if it would have been possible from this direction, I guess not.
It would have been further away from whatever climb they could add before. Instead, they're doing this with no flat between Velefique's descent and the start of the climb.
http://www.ramacabici.com/altimetrias/almeria/calaralto02.htm
Wow, I expect carnage.
 
Oct 10, 2015
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HelloDolly said:
movingtarget said:
Roche practicing to be the next Zubeldia........so far so good !

Don't remember Zubeldia attacking off the front

Say whetever you want about Roche (as some ppl are so eager to dismiss) at least he has the balls to try
Then you should go and watch the 2003 Tour.
 
Jul 16, 2011
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hrotha said:
I think insulting Rojas is always necessary.
Trentin stated that Rojas went really hard down the descent, which makes sense since Rojas had local knowledge.

Maybe Rojas saw that Trentin was so much stronger and was ensuring that he got at least second, but
the finale was just so "a lamb to the slaughter", it was embarassing.

In his commentary Dariusz Baranowski stated that he was supporting Rojas, since he was a former team mate, but he really expressed no belief in his chances of winning against Trentin.
 
Aug 20, 2017
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Trentin & Roche - nice work today.
But we have still 11 stages till the end, The Final Countdown part I will start tomorrow at 12.30.
 
Jul 7, 2012
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Lol at trentin interviewed by friebe. "How do you see yr career developing?"
"Er... like this is ok...!"
 
Aug 21, 2011
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spalco said:
Ruby United said:
spalco said:
Wow, that looks incredible. I would never thought that's Spain.
Will you explain for those of us who don't have images?
I didn't catch the name, but huge dunes with some turqouise lake or something. Just a short shot from the heli.
it was Los Barrancos( badlands) de Gebas although the TV shot referred to it as La Rambla de Algeciras which is where the water feeds into the lake from I think. I agree fantastic landscape. Even more beautiful to watch as it changes colour in different times of the day.
 
Aug 21, 2011
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Orbit501 said:
Ruby United said:
spalco said:
Wow, that looks incredible. I would never thought that's Spain.
Will you explain for those of us who don't have images?
Probably just spotted a tiny speck of land that isn't parched, dry and arid.
Have you ever been to Spain? Yes some of it is arid and dry,not that that necessarily makes it unattractive, but there are huge green areas and a wide variety of scenery and terrain. In fact the area spalco liked is arid badlands.
The irony is that Murcia, where the race was today and will start tomorrow, is known as one of the driest areas in the whole country and rarely gets any rain , although when it does come it does so with a vengeance.
 

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