Re:
Trentin is the favourite in that situation, no matter what. But the chance of him losing from a four or five man group, including two opponents on the same team, is bigger than the chance of him losing from a two man group. Similarly, if he's the only one working and Rojas has been sitting on him, the chances of him botching the sprint even if the other two don't get back are marginally higher. Therefore, the correct play in that situation is always to refuse to work.
Which 2 places Movistar get between 2nd and 5th is trivia.
ice&fire said:If Rojas stops working Trentin waits for Rosón and Van Rensburg, Trentin wins anyways and Rojas finishes 4th
Trentin is the favourite in that situation, no matter what. But the chance of him losing from a four or five man group, including two opponents on the same team, is bigger than the chance of him losing from a two man group. Similarly, if he's the only one working and Rojas has been sitting on him, the chances of him botching the sprint even if the other two don't get back are marginally higher. Therefore, the correct play in that situation is always to refuse to work.
Which 2 places Movistar get between 2nd and 5th is trivia.