Vuelta 2018 stage 16:Santillana del Mar - Torrelavega 32km

[Akuryo]

Re: Re:

The TT actually looks easier than it actually is...

So you're trying to tell me it's basically as hard as the one in the Tour, but with a very different y axis

I had noticed it was quite rolling, but not that it was this hilly.

I remember complaining that Dumoulin should've picked the Vuelta over a Tour he couldn't win. Now I'm sad he's not there. Would have made this Vuelta much crazier, especially if he'd had a crap team again.

So this time the entire team not just him who is taking a dump at the side of the road. I think you are going too far. :lol:

 

[klintE]

Crushweak is going to catch Lopez, Lopez gonna catch Quintana, Valverde shall catch Yates

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Crushweak is going to catch Lopez, Lopez gonna catch Quintana, Valverde shall catch Yates

On GC? Because on the road that's quite impossible

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

The TT actually looks easier than it actually is...

And the first bump is 1.5km at 5%.

Yates in top 15 IMO.

 

[klintE]

Re: Re:

Crushweak is going to catch Lopez, Lopez gonna catch Quintana, Valverde shall catch Yates

On GC? Because on the road that's quite impossible

On GC )

 

[jfazendeiro]

Re: Re:

The TT actually looks easier than it actually is...

So you're trying to tell me it's basically as hard as the one in the Tour, but with a very different y axis

I had noticed it was quite rolling, but not that it was this hilly.

I remember complaining that Dumoulin should've picked the Vuelta over a Tour he couldn't win. Now I'm sad he's not there. Would have made this Vuelta much crazier, especially if he'd had a crap team again.

I calculated the positive denivel per hectometer of almost all World Tour time-trials. In my list, those that have a more approximate value are the prologue in Jerusalém (D+/Hm: 15.98) and the Espelette TT (D+/Hm16.87). The Torrelavega time-trial has a D+/Hm of 13.28.

 

[Laplaz]

Does the fact that the parcours is hillier than expected produce bigger gaps or not? Probably not I think, so good for MAL and Quintana.

 

[Robert5091]

That first km of the stage at 5% might well catch a few out - get on those rollers!

The last 10km are downhill nearly all the way so there should be lots of "negative splits", but the weather forecast is for easterly winds so it'll be a tailwind going out & headwind on the easier return section. 25C & humid otherwise.

(Edit - the climbers are going to have to be careful with their energy as Wednesday's stage 17 is up Monte Oiz. Classified as "hilly" (!) with gradients up to 23 % :surprised: )

 

[Escarabajo]

They have no choice but to go all out. The time lost could be critical for the overall. Too much and the hopes for GC could be gone and the following stage might not matter anymore. Unless you die like Yates at the Giro but I don't expect that to happen.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

They have no choice but to go all out. The time lost could be critical for the overall. Too much and the hopes for GC could be gone and the following stage might not matter anymore. Unless you die like Yates at the Giro but I don't expect that to happen.

Agree 100%. So predictions anyone?

Here we go (for the GC riders):

The Don
Ion at 5"
Uran at 20"
Simon at 30"
Buchmann at 31"
Rigo at 32"
SK and Quintana at 35"
Mas at 40"
MAL at 55"

I won't predict for Tibopino, I would jinx him . Fingers crossed...

 

[Sciatic]

Re:

They have no choice but to go all out. The time lost could be critical for the overall. Too much and the hopes for GC could be gone and the following stage might not matter anymore. Unless you die like Yates at the Giro but I don't expect that to happen.

But . . . didn't Yates himself say he went too hard in the Giro TT resulting in his collapse in the following stages? Or do you think that was just his rationalization and he was due for the collapse no matter?

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

They have no choice but to go all out. The time lost could be critical for the overall. Too much and the hopes for GC could be gone and the following stage might not matter anymore. Unless you die like Yates at the Giro but I don't expect that to happen.

But . . . didn't Yates himself say he went too hard in the Giro TT resulting in his collapse in the following stages? Or do you think that was just his rationalization and he was due for the collapse no matter?

You can't hold back on an ITT. You'd lose too much time, save little energy, compared to what you need to spend to make up for it.

 

[Big Doopie]

Re: Re:

They have no choice but to go all out. The time lost could be critical for the overall. Too much and the hopes for GC could be gone and the following stage might not matter anymore. Unless you die like Yates at the Giro but I don't expect that to happen.

Agree 100%. So predictions anyone?

Here we go (for the GC riders):

The Don
Ion at 5"
Uran at 20"
Simon at 30"
Buchmann at 31"
Rigo at 32"
SK and Quintana at 35"
Mas at 40"
MAL at 55"

I won't predict for Tibopino, I would jinx him . Fingers crossed...

The best part of this prediction is imagining Rigo losing 12" to Uran.

;-)

 

[Savant12]

Re: Re:

They have no choice but to go all out. The time lost could be critical for the overall. Too much and the hopes for GC could be gone and the following stage might not matter anymore. Unless you die like Yates at the Giro but I don't expect that to happen.

Agree 100%. So predictions anyone?

Here we go (for the GC riders):

The Don
Ion at 5"
Uran at 20"
Simon at 30"
Buchmann at 31"
Rigo at 32"
SK and Quintana at 35"
Mas at 40"
MAL at 55"

I won't predict for Tibopino, I would jinx him . Fingers crossed...

The best part of this prediction is imagining Rigo losing 12" to Uran.

;-)

Sums up the unpredictability of a Rigo Uran TT. For his sake, Uran better be the one showing up.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

They have no choice but to go all out. The time lost could be critical for the overall. Too much and the hopes for GC could be gone and the following stage might not matter anymore. Unless you die like Yates at the Giro but I don't expect that to happen.

Agree 100%. So predictions anyone?

Here we go (for the GC riders):

The Don
Ion at 5"
Uran at 20"
Simon at 30"
Buchmann at 31"
Rigo at 32"
SK and Quintana at 35"
Mas at 40"
MAL at 55"

I won't predict for Tibopino, I would jinx him . Fingers crossed...

Ion hasn't been a convincing time trialist in a couple of years. Uran and Pinot are huge questions marks. They can be very bad, very good or somewhere in between.

Valverde
Yates, 5-10
Kruijswijk, 25
Ion, 35
Mas, 40
Pinot, 45
Buchmann, 50
Lopez, 1:00
Quintana, 1:10
Uran, 1:30

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

They have no choice but to go all out. The time lost could be critical for the overall. Too much and the hopes for GC could be gone and the following stage might not matter anymore. Unless you die like Yates at the Giro but I don't expect that to happen.

Agree 100%. So predictions anyone?

Here we go (for the GC riders):

The Don
Ion at 5"
Uran at 20"
Simon at 30"
Buchmann at 31"
Rigo at 32"
SK and Quintana at 35"
Mas at 40"
MAL at 55"

I won't predict for Tibopino, I would jinx him . Fingers crossed...

The best part of this prediction is imagining Rigo losing 12" to Uran.

;-)

:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

They have no choice but to go all out. The time lost could be critical for the overall. Too much and the hopes for GC could be gone and the following stage might not matter anymore. Unless you die like Yates at the Giro but I don't expect that to happen.

Agree 100%. So predictions anyone?

Here we go (for the GC riders):

The Don
Ion at 5"
Uran at 20"
Simon at 30"
Buchmann at 31"
Rigo at 32"
SK and Quintana at 35"
Mas at 40"
MAL at 55"

I won't predict for Tibopino, I would jinx him . Fingers crossed...

The best part of this prediction is imagining Rigo losing 12" to Uran.

;-)

:surprised: :lol:

 

[Robert5091]

Start times today (CET of course) from http://www.biciciclismo.com/es/orden-y-horario-de-salida-de-la-cri-de-la-vuelta-a-espana-10-09-2018
1 14:06:00 163 BRANDLE Matthias TFS AUT
2 14:07:00 13 DUVAL Julien ALM FRA
3 14:08:00 158 WALSCHEID Maximilian Richard * SUN GER
4 14:09:00 73 EDMONDSON Alexander * MTS AUS
5 14:10:00 198 SOTO MARTINEZ Nelson Andres * CJR COL
6 14:11:00 133 BOOM Lars TLJ NED
7 14:12:00 48 SCHWARZMANN Michael BOH GER
8 14:13:00 97 SABATINI Fabio QST ITA
9 14:14:00 43 BURGHARDT Marcus BOH GER
10 14:15:00 113 DOCKER Mitchell EFD AUS
11 14:16:00 212 ABERASTURI IZAGA Jon EUS ESP
12 14:17:00 96 MORKOV Michael QST DEN
13 14:18:00 68 WALLAYS Jelle LTS BEL
14 14:19:00 91 VIVIANI Elia QST ITA
15 14:20:00 208 VANBILSEN Kenneth COF BEL
16 14:21:00 173 CONSONNI Simone * UAD ITA
17 14:22:00 202 CHETOUT Loic COF FRA
18 14:23:00 187 RUBIO HERNANDEZ Diego BBH ESP
19 14:24:00 136 LEEZER Thomas TLJ NED
20 14:25:00 8 PIBERNIK Luka * TBM SLO
21 14:26:00 76 MEZGEC Luka MTS SLO
22 14:27:00 167 NIZZOLO Giacomo TFS ITA
23 14:28:00 137 LINDEMAN Bert-Jan TLJ NED
24 14:29:00 84 BENNATI Daniele MOV ITA
25 14:30:00 168 REIJNEN Kiel TFS USA
26 14:31:00 92 ASGREEN Kasper * QST DEN
27 14:32:00 56 SARREAU Marc * GFC FRA
28 14:33:00 166 IRIZAR ARAMBURU Markel TFS ESP
29 14:34:00 186 SIMON CASULLERAS Jordi BBH ESP
30 14:35:00 122 BOSWELL Ian TKA USA
31 14:36:00 188 TORRES MUINO Pablo BBH ESP
32 14:37:00 138 VAN POPPEL Danny * TLJ NED
33 14:38:00 53 DUCHESNE Antoine GFC CAN
34 14:39:00 103 CUMMINGS Stephen DDD GBR
35 14:40:00 57 THOMAS Benjamin * GFC FRA
36 14:41:00 114 LANGEVELD Sebastian EFD NED
37 14:42:00 155 STORER Michael * SUN AUS
38 14:43:00 77 TRENTIN Matteo MTS ITA
39 14:44:00 152 FROHLINGER Johannes SUN GER
40 14:45:00 193 LASTRA MARTINEZ Jonathan * CJR ESP
41 14:46:00 215 BRAVO OIARBIDE Garikoitz EUS ESP
42 14:47:00 41 SAGAN Peter BOH SVK
43 14:48:00 205 LE TURNIER Mathias * COF FRA
44 14:49:00 108 VAN ZYL Johann DDD RSA
45 14:50:00 172 BYSTROM Sven Erik UAD NOR
46 14:51:00 156 TEUNISSEN Mike SUN NED
47 14:52:00 67 VAN DER SANDE Tosh LTS BEL
48 14:53:00 47 POSTLBERGER Lukas BOH AUT
49 14:54:00 72 ALBASINI Michael MTS SUI
50 14:55:00 195 MOLINA CANET Antonio CJR ESP
51 14:56:00 52 DELAGE Mickael GFC FRA
52 14:57:00 175 LAENGEN Vegard Stake UAD NOR
53 14:58:00 206 MATE MARDONES Luis Angel COF ESP
54 14:59:00 63 CAMPENAERTS Victor LTS BEL
55 15:00:00 164 CONCI Nicola * TFS ITA
56 15:01:00 216 ITURRIA SEGUROLA Mikel EUS ESP
57 15:02:00 192 ARANBURU DEBA Alex * CJR ESP
58 15:03:00 5 PADUN Mark * TBM UKR
59 15:04:00 38 VENTOSO ALBERDI Francisco Jose BMC ESP
60 15:05:00 12 CHEREL Mikael ALM FRA
61 15:06:00 26 STALNOV Nikita AST KAZ
62 15:07:00 142 CASTROVIEJO Jonathan SKY ESP
63 15:08:00 128 RESTREPO VALENCIA Jhonatan * TKA COL
64 15:09:00 94 DEVENYNS Dries QST BEL
65 15:10:00 34 DENNIS Rohan BMC AUS
66 15:11:00 61 BENOOT Tiesj * LTS BEL
67 15:12:00 182 BOL Jetse BBH NED
68 15:13:00 2 GARCIA CORTINA Ivan * TBM ESP
69 15:14:00 181 MENDES Jose BBH POR
70 15:15:00 16 GENIEZ Alexandre ALM FRA
71 15:16:00 86 ERVITI Imanol MOV ESP
72 15:17:00 184 CUBERO GALVEZ Jorge BBH ESP
73 15:18:00 98 SERRY Pieter QST BEL
74 15:19:00 185 EZQUERRA MUELA Jesus BBH ESP
75 15:20:00 157 TUSVELD Martijn * SUN NED
76 15:21:00 218 SAEZ BENITO Hector * EUS ESP
77 15:22:00 82 AMADOR Andrey MOV CRC
78 15:23:00 146 PUCCIO Salvatore SKY ITA
79 15:24:00 33 DE MARCHI Alessandro BMC ITA
80 15:25:00 117 VAN ASBROECK Tom EFD BEL
81 15:26:00 183 CABEDO CARDA Oscar * BBH ESP
82 15:27:00 105 GIBBONS Ryan * DDD RSA
83 15:28:00 127 MACHADO Tiago TKA POR
84 15:29:00 46 MC CARTHY Jay BOH AUS
85 15:30:00 36 ROSSKOPF Joseph BMC USA
86 15:31:00 25 HIRT Jan AST CZE
87 15:32:00 31 PORTE Richie BMC AUS
88 15:33:00 18 PETERS Nans * ALM FRA
89 15:34:00 58 VINCENT Leo * GFC FRA
90 15:35:00 213 BAGUES KALPARSORO Aritz EUS ESP
91 15:36:00 197 SCHULTZ Nicholas Jack William * CJR AUS
92 15:37:00 87 OLIVEIRA Nelson MOV POR
93 15:38:00 64 DE GENDT Thomas LTS BEL
94 15:39:00 1 NIBALI Vincenzo TBM ITA
95 15:40:00 83 ANACONA Winner Andrew MOV COL
96 15:41:00 78 YATES Adam MTS GBR
97 15:42:00 24 FRAILE MATARRANZ Omar AST ESP
98 15:43:00 75 HOWSON Damien MTS AUS
99 15:44:00 23 CATALDO Dario AST ITA
100 15:45:00 124 HOLLENSTEIN Reto TKA SUI
101 15:46:00 211 PRADES REVERTER Eduard EUS ESP
102 15:47:00 207 ROSSETTO Stephane COF FRA
103 15:48:00 32 BOOKWALTER Brent BMC USA
104 15:49:00 62 ARMEE Sander LTS BEL
105 15:50:00 116 ROLLAND Pierre EFD FRA
106 15:51:00 165 FELLINE Fabio TFS ITA
107 15:52:00 174 CONTI Valerio * UAD ITA
108 15:53:00 125 KOCHETKOV Pavel TKA RUS
109 15:54:00 217 RODRIGUEZ G. Oscar * EUS ESP
110 15:55:00 102 ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor DDD ESP
111 15:56:00 191 PARDILLA BELLON Sergio CJR ESP
112 15:57:00 143 GEOGHEGAN HART Tao * SKY GBR
113 15:58:00 153 GESCHKE Simon SUN GER
114 15:59:00 28 ZEITS Andrey AST KAZ
115 16:00:00 6 PELLIZOTTI Franco TBM ITA
116 16:01:00 135 KUSS Sepp * TLJ USA
117 16:02:00 115 MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel EFD ESP
118 16:03:00 27 VILLELLA Davide AST ITA
119 16:04:00 194 MAS BONET Luis Guillermo CJR ESP
120 16:05:00 178 RAVASI Edward * UAD ITA
121 16:06:00 154 HINDLEY Jai * SUN AUS
122 16:07:00 22 BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello AST ESP
123 16:08:00 104 GHEBREIGZABHIER WERKILUL * DDD ERI
124 16:09:00 118 WOODS Michael EFD CAN
125 16:10:00 101 MEINTJES Louis DDD RSA
126 16:11:00 93 DE PLUS Laurens * QST BEL
127 16:12:00 112 CLARKE Simon EFD AUS
128 16:13:00 204 HERRADA Jose COF ESP
129 16:14:00 66 MONFORT Maxime LTS BEL
130 16:15:00 107 KUDUS Merhawi * DDD ERI
131 16:16:00 35 ROCHE Nicolas BMC IRL
132 16:17:00 134 DE TIER Floris TLJ BEL
133 16:18:00 37 TEUNS Dylan BMC BEL
134 16:19:00 15 GASTAUER Ben ALM LUX
135 16:20:00 196 RODRIGUEZ MARTIN Cristian * CJR ESP
136 16:21:00 161 MOLLEMA Bauke TFS NED
137 16:22:00 121 ZAKARIN Ilnur TKA RUS
138 16:23:00 3 IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka TBM ESP
139 16:24:00 11 DUPONT Hubert ALM FRA
140 16:25:00 203 HERRADA Jesus COF ESP
141 16:26:00 145 KWIATKOWSKI Michal SKY POL
142 16:27:00 106 KING Benjamin DDD USA
143 16:28:00 144 HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis SKY COL
144 16:29:00 44 FORMOLO Davide BOH ITA
145 16:30:00 132 BENNETT George TLJ NZL
146 16:31:00 85 CARAPAZ Richard * MOV ECU
147 16:32:00 214 BIZKARRA ETXEGIBEL Mikel EUS ESP
148 16:33:00 7 PERNSTEINER Hermann TBM AUT
149 16:34:00 54 MOLARD Rudy GFC FRA
150 16:35:00 141 DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David SKY ESP
151 16:36:00 45 MAJKA Rafal BOH POL
152 16:37:00 74 HAIG Jack * MTS AUS
153 16:38:00 171 ARU Fabio UAD ITA
154 16:39:00 162 BRAMBILLA Gianluca TFS ITA
155 16:40:00 151 KELDERMAN Wilco SUN NED
156 16:42:00 14 GALLOPIN Tony ALM FRA
157 16:44:00 42 BUCHMANN Emanuel BOH GER
158 16:46:00 4 IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI Jon TBM ESP
159 16:48:00 111 URAN Rigoberto EFD COL
160 16:50:00 51 PINOT Thibaut GFC FRA
161 16:52:00 95 MAS NICOLAU Enric * QST ESP
162 16:54:00 131 KRUIJSWIJK Steven TLJ NED
163 16:56:00 81 QUINTANA Nairo MOV COL
164 16:58:00 21 LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel * AST COL
165 17:00:00 88 VALVERDE Alejandro MOV ESP
166 17:02:00 71 YATES Simon Philip MTS GBR

 

[Robert5091]

Campenaerts, Castroviejo & Dennis to fight for the win. Hope LRP & Nibs give it a go to see how they are form wise. (Rigo to beat Uran ... wait a minute )

 

[Laplaz]

Don't think Nibali will try hard today. Probably will try to go in the break tomorrow.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Re: Vuelta 2018 stage 16:Santillana del Mar - Torrelavega 32

I think Pinot may surprise people today, he coming into some kind of form and may just do something special and climb that GC giving him a good chance this week.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Help me, Simon-Wan Kenobi. You are my only hope.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

They have no choice but to go all out. The time lost could be critical for the overall. Too much and the hopes for GC could be gone and the following stage might not matter anymore. Unless you die like Yates at the Giro but I don't expect that to happen.

Agree 100%. So predictions anyone?

Here we go (for the GC riders):

The Don
Ion at 5"
Uran at 20"
Simon at 30"
Buchmann at 31"
Rigo at 32"
SK and Quintana at 35"
Mas at 40"
MAL at 55"

I won't predict for Tibopino, I would jinx him . Fingers crossed...

Ion hasn't been a convincing time trialist in a couple of years. Uran and Pinot are huge questions marks. They can be very bad, very good or somewhere in between.

Valverde
Yates, 5-10
Kruijswijk, 25
Ion, 35
Mas, 40
Pinot, 45
Buchmann, 50
Lopez, 1:00
Quintana, 1:10
Uran, 1:30

I'm still confident Ion will finish ahead of SK and Yates. He's done some decent time trials this year, including at Paris Nice and national championships. What he doesn't like is the completely flat, no hills TT's like in Itzulia or Abu Dhabi tour. Clearly, looking at the profile this TT is not flat.

FWIW, he was also 9th in the prologue and he generally looks to be in great shape. I say he finish around Valverde, 5-10th place today.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

They have no choice but to go all out. The time lost could be critical for the overall. Too much and the hopes for GC could be gone and the following stage might not matter anymore. Unless you die like Yates at the Giro but I don't expect that to happen.

Agree 100%. So predictions anyone?

Here we go (for the GC riders):

The Don
Ion at 5"
Uran at 20"
Simon at 30"
Buchmann at 31"
Rigo at 32"
SK and Quintana at 35"
Mas at 40"
MAL at 55"

I won't predict for Tibopino, I would jinx him . Fingers crossed...

Ion hasn't been a convincing time trialist in a couple of years. Uran and Pinot are huge questions marks. They can be very bad, very good or somewhere in between.

Not sure what is required to be convincing, but Ion did win i.e. Valverde with around 30s in 37,5km just 1,5 months ago in Spain Nationals.

I sincerely expect Ion and Kelderman as the 2 strongest out of GC riders with Valverde less than 20s behind. Yates, Quintana and MAL all losing between 30s to 1m to Valverde.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Either Castroviejo or Dennis to win. Of the guys who have a real shot at winning overall Valverde takes time on everyone else and Quintana and Lopez both lose enough time it will be extremely difficult to get it back.

Dennis should totally blitz this, it's his kind of length and he's hardly done anything since the prologue. This should also be an indication of whether Porte and Nibali's form is recovering after the TdF.

Campanaerts and Castroviejo to round out the podium.