Vuelta 2024 discussion

[Bolder]

Odds now that Roglic is confirmed. Odds to win.

Roglic 9 to 4
Almeida 6 to 1
Yates 6 to 1
Kuss 6 to 1
Mas 8 to 1
Landa 16 to 1
Martinez 18 to 1
Rodriguez 20 to 1
Carapaz 25 to 1

Maybe Roglic will follow Kuss out of habit.

 

[tobydawq]

Yes, that was the context I was replying to.

Conditions are pretty good this year for someone to have a crazy breakthrough performance. It's a strong field on paper, but none of the contenders have really geared their season towards the Vuelta, it was a brutal Tour and there are question marks about many of them.

I know, my post should be read with a very skeptical voice.

I see the point but still think it's too unrealistic to be worth putting money on.

 

[Didinho]

Considering everybody on that list bar Kuss have already done a GT this year, one of the quickly developing youngster like Poole @81 or LVE @81 might be fun bets.

I’ve seen Van Eetvelt doing a lot of recons the last months, even the whole mountain stages on his own. He’s gonna be the best prepared rider of this peloton and will be fresh. Top 10 could be within reach, top 5 would be impressive. So I’m hoping something in between with maybe a stage win.

 

[Landeirovic]

Who is even going to control stages? Sprint stages Alpecin for Groves, maybe Visma helps for Van Aert in some space, but what about all the other stages. UAE goes with 7 leaders basically, not a single team that's gonna be super confident in riding all day in mountain stages probably. I expect a lot of breakaways.

Uae will go also in breakaways. Than they dont need control. Mcnulty, soler, sivakov maybe Vine will have freedom

 

[Samamba]

Uae will go also in breakaways. Than they dont need control. Mcnulty, soler, sivakov maybe Vine will have freedom

Well yeah that's kinda what I'm saying. They won't control. Only team that might control (and has a decent team for it) is Bora, but that's only if Roglic has the form.

 

[svit]

I would be very suprised if Roglic will be competitive due to the injuries he sustained in the Tour.

 

[ManicJack]

I would be very suprised if Roglic will be competitive due to the injuries he sustained in the Tour.

The real question may be, what level, relevant to his best, does Roglic need to be competitive amongst the likes of Kuss, Yates, Almeida, Mas, Landa etc?

 

[red_flanders]

Landa appears to be freed...let's see it!

 

[CyclistAbi]

The real question may be, what level, relevant to his best, does Roglic need to be competitive amongst the likes of Kuss, Yates, Almeida, Mas, Landa etc?

Well those are good climbers so the level will need to be high, to beat them. The form likely won't be a problem the bigger issue will be if Rogla will feel pain in lower back, or not. We'll see.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

is T.Nys racing this??

 

[Monsi]

is T.Nys racing this??

Pologne is until the 18th while the Vuelta starts on the 17th so no.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Kuss was involved in all Rogličes GT wins so it bodes well both again participating at this GT.

 

[Savant12]

Landa appears to be freed...let's see it!

Landa, it's time!

 

[Valv.Piti]

• TIBERI Antonio*
• -CARUSO Damiano
• -GRADEK Kamil
• -HAIG Jack
• -KEPPLINGER Rainer
• -MIHOLJEVIĆ Fran*
• -SÜTTERLIN Jasha
• -TRÆEN Torstein
  
  Tiberi better have good legs becausd otherwise this seems like a quite weak team to me. No Buitrago, Bilbao etc. to back him up, so all on him.

 

[ice&fire]

Landa appears to be freed...let's see it!

History tells that's a recipe for underperforming

 

[red_flanders]

History tells that's a recipe for underperforming

Of course! If he actually wins it won’t be any fun to say it…

 

[Valv.Piti]

• ARENSMAN Thymen*
• -HEIDUK Kim*
• -NARVÁEZ Jhonatan
• -RIVERA Brandon Smith
• -RODRÍGUEZ Óscar
• -DE PLUS Laurens
• -TARLING Joshua*
• -RODRÍGUEZ Carlos*
  
  Great news that Carlito is selected. Along with Thymen that will be a pretty good 1-2, although I don't expect miracles at all from Arensman, especially not early in the race. Narvaez should have a stage in him in a race like the Vuelta, and so should Tarling given there are two flat time trials. Laurens de Plus is a super solid mountain dom. Good team! And the OP is updated - its beginning to shape up, only a few more notables still in doubt, but I very much expect Carapaz to ride, and Mayo says Gicco goes, so only Tao G really in doubt still. Anyone know how he's doing?
  
  Edit: And all the Trek guys are in. Great! Basically only Carapaz left now (along with Van Wilder) from my original list.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Just look at this startlist! Its quite amazing despite the three best riders not being here, everyone else are basically here and we expect Carapaz with 99% certainty to ride. Im keeping an eye on Casper Pedersen, he really deserves to ride after what happened in the Tour.

 

[Valv.Piti]

• -CARAPAZ Richard
• -URÁN Rigoberto
• -COSTA Rui
• -CEPEDA Jefferson Alexander
• -DOULL Owain
• -SWEENY Harry
• -SHAW James
• -RAFFERTY Darren*
  
  Aaaand Richie is officially riding! A couple of old guys with some lads that I don't really know at all and then Cepeda who climbed quite well in Burgos. I don't think this team is strong, but Richie has what it takes to win a GT I think.
  
  The only interesting team left is QS now, I think. Cofidis will select some over the hill riders from the glory days of Movistar in the mid 10's to late 10's and Martin, and Alpecin and Intermarche will bring a bunch of pack fodder apart from Groves.

 

[Valv.Piti]

This is the list of riders capable of top 10 and some other notable riders down below.

Confirmed:
Enric Mas
Sepp Kuss
Mathias Skjelmose
Mikel Landa
Adam Yates
Joao Almeida
Brandon McNulty
Isaac Del Toro
Jay Vine
Valentin Paret Peintre
Ben O' Connor
Cian Uijtebroeks
Felix Gall
Nairo Quintana
Einer Rubio
Lorenzo Fortunato
David Gaudu
Max Poole
Filippo Zana
Lennart VE
Primoz Roglic
Aleksandr Vlasov
Dani Martinez
Florian Lipowitz
Max Poole
Mat Riccitello
Antonio Tiberi
Carlos Rodriguez
Thymen Arensman
Laurens de Plus
Tao G. Gart
Giulio Ciccone
Richard Carapaz

Other notable riders (non GC):
Josh Tarling
WVA
Pavel Bittner

Unconfirmed:
Guillame Martin
Kaden Groves
Ilan Van Wilder

 

[tobydawq]

• -CARAPAZ Richard
• -URÁN Rigoberto
• -COSTA Rui
• -CEPEDA Jefferson Alexander
• -DOULL Owain
• -SWEENY Harry
• -SHAW James
• -RAFFERTY Darren*
  
  Aaaand Richie is officially riding! A couple of old guys with some lads that I don't really know at all and then Cepeda who climbed quite well in Burgos. I don't think this team is strong, but Richie has what it takes to win a GT I think.
  
  The only interesting team left is QS now, I think. Cofidis will select some over the hill riders from the glory days of Movistar in the mid 10's to late 10's and Martin, and Alpecin and Intermarche will bring a bunch of pack fodder apart from Groves.

I gotta say, your enthusiasm in this thread makes it hard for me not to look forward to Saturday!

The sprinter field is hilarious, though. So far, of riders on the start list with a decent sprint I can honestly only spot Wout and Bittner. But Alpecin are likely to select Groves I guess and Cofidis haven't announced their team either, so I guess Coquard is likely to be there too. And Intermarché will perhaps make sprints their top priority with top star Arne Marit.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Of course man, its the Vuelta, the 3rd biggest race (behind the Tour and Tour of Flanders, obviously), so we are all hype in here. Love the Vuelta, always have been since the mid 00's when TV2 started to show the race and of course my main man was often a lot more successful in this beauty of a race than in France.

This year it has a great route, a great (but open) field and it starts in the South in the middle of August. Always a great recipe, riders will get absolutely cooked early on and stage 9 will be the best stage of the year. Mark my words.

 

[Squire]

This is the list of riders capable of top 10 and some other notable riders down below.

Confirmed:
Enric Mas
Sepp Kuss
Mathias Skjelmose
Mikel Landa
Adam Yates
Joao Almeida
Brandon McNulty
Isaac Del Toro
Jay Vine
Valentin Paret Peintre
Ben O' Connor
Cian Uijtebroeks
Felix Gall
Nairo Quintana
Einer Rubio
Lorenzo Fortunato
David Gaudu
Max Poole
Filippo Zana
Lennart VE
Primoz Roglic
Aleksandr Vlasov
Dani Martinez
Florian Lipowitz
Max Poole
Mat Riccitello
Antonio Tiberi
Carlos Rodriguez
Thymen Arensman
Laurens de Plus
Tao G. Gart
Giulio Ciccone
Richard Carapaz

Other notable riders (non GC):
Josh Tarling
WVA
Pavel Bittner

Unconfirmed:
Guillame Martin
Kaden Groves
Ilan Van Wilder

I guess the other C. Rodriguez could sneak onto this list as well, considering VPP is there. And I see you have (rightly, I guess) lost faith in the 2021 podium finisher.

Just hoping this won't be a holding hands parade like Hindley/Carapaz/Landa and Roglic/Thomas/Almeida in the Giro in recent years while everyone thinks they can do something big on the final two mountain stages before Madrid or in the final TT. But as I've said here before, maybe the Unipuerto stages are kinda a saving grace, as it it won't cost too much to try there. And stuff like Cuitu Negru certainly and Hazallanas likely will force selection.

 

[Coffeeplanter]

Van der Poel was considering to take the start in Lisboa, but, as per usual, to consider amounted to a no. Very understandable decision if you’d ask me, the man must be exhausted from all the racing he’s been doing this year.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

This is the list of riders capable of top 10 and some other notable riders down below.

Confirmed:
Enric Mas
Sepp Kuss
Mathias Skjelmose
Mikel Landa
Adam Yates
Joao Almeida
Brandon McNulty
Isaac Del Toro
Jay Vine
Valentin Paret Peintre
Ben O' Connor
Cian Uijtebroeks
Felix Gall
Nairo Quintana
Einer Rubio
Lorenzo Fortunato
David Gaudu
Max Poole
Filippo Zana
Lennart VE
Primoz Roglic
Aleksandr Vlasov
Dani Martinez
Florian Lipowitz
Max Poole
Mat Riccitello
Antonio Tiberi
Carlos Rodriguez
Thymen Arensman
Laurens de Plus
Tao G. Gart
Giulio Ciccone
Richard Carapaz

Other notable riders (non GC):
Josh Tarling
WVA
Pavel Bittner

Unconfirmed:
Guillame Martin
Kaden Groves
Ilan Van Wilder

I can say with 100% certainty, that Van Wilder is not going to ride the Vuelta. His strava already made that clear, but i just got confirmation as well.

ps: It's Lennert, not Lennart.