Vuelta a España 2011

[Hugo Koblet]

BMC's van Avermaet/Phinney could be quite interesting in the mix. Pretty sure you should count Degenkolb and Goss in the sprinter's lineup. That's pretty much it tho yeah. (Nope, I'm not a Sagan fan.)

Agree, Avermaet or Phinney could be interesting. Who will they sprint for though? I don't really think neither are that quick but Avermaet is pretty good in tougher finishes.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

neither are quick enough to win a bunch gallop. Or get in the top 3 imo.
Sagan too good on the difficult finish.

 

[just some guy]

neither are quick enough to win a bunch gallop. Or get in the top 3 imo.
Sagan too good on the difficult finish.

Unless it 5 % 500 -600 m then GVA should Podium unless he goes from 2 km out.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Unless it 5 % 500 -600 m then GVA should Podium unless he goes from 2 km out.

I actually think there are quite a few finishes which suits GVA in this Vuelta - just not the pure sprint stages.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Unless it 5 % 500 -600 m then GVA should Podium unless he goes from 2 km out.

I certainly think he could podium on a few of the stages like that. Just not the flat ones. Martens is another, he could do ok on that. But Sagan I think will be too strong on those finishes. Unless some are in the 3rd week, maybe he will tire.

 

[l.Harm]

Another cool battle will be Cavendish vs Kittel showoff. I actually don't think the sprint lineup is that good. Who's there besides Cav, Kittel, Farrar, Petacchi, Bennati?
There are a lot of teams who don't seem to bring anyone who can get a top 10 in a sprint: Cofidis, Ag2r, Katusha, Movistar, Vacansoleil etc.

Freire, JJ Haedo, Haussler, (Ligthart).

 

[Poursuivant]

Itv4 advertising the vuelta for saturday. I dont know if they are just showing weekend stages but its a good sign.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Freire, JJ Haedo, Haussler, (Ligthart).

friere winning a bunch gallop, classic

I like friere but I am not sure he has a chance on a straight forward sprint anymore.

 

[maltiv]

friere winning a bunch gallop, classic

I like friere but I am not sure he has a chance on a straight forward sprint anymore.

There seems to be quite a lot of stages where there will be a reduced bunch sprint which suits Freire perfectly. Problem is, Sagan is probably faster than Freire and is at least as strong on the hills. Hopefully we will see Freire joining a few breakaways instead.

 

[auscyclefan94]

GVA is gonna Kill 'em! Lots of good stages for my boy this vuelta!

 

[The Hitch]

Itv4 advertising the vuelta for saturday. I dont know if they are just showing weekend stages but its a good sign.

Vuelta adverts on itv4.

Havent seen them but it brings joy to my heart.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Vuelta adverts on itv4.

Havent seen them but it brings joy to my heart.

You can always use the Sporza stream if ITV doesn't broadcast

 

[LabMonkey]

GVA is gonna Kill 'em! Lots of good stages for my boy this vuelta!

Which stages do you think suit him better than say Sagan?

Stages 5 and 17 look like interesting finishes - stages for the uphill sprinters, or more for the punchy climbers?

 

[theyoungest]

friere winning a bunch gallop, classic

I like friere but I am not sure he has a chance on a straight forward sprint anymore.

Even more hilarious is Ligthart winning a bunch sprint. He could barely beat Bram Tankink at the nationals.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Which stages do you think suit him better than say Sagan?

Stages 5 and 17 look like interesting finishes - stages for the uphill sprinters, or more for the punchy climbers?

Uphill sprinters? Peña Cabarga is 6km @ 10%. No WAY. That's a proper climber's finish. Very steep in places. Valdepeñas de Jaén is a Mur de Huy/Montelupone type finish. Very nasty. Maybe falls between them - I suspect that even in 2011 Joaquím Rodríguez could beat Gilbert on Montelupone, but he obviously doesn't beat him on Huy!

Happily, we don't have to go back very far to see what happens on these finishes.

Valdepeñas de Jaén 2010:

1 Igor Antón (EUS) 5'00'29
2 Vincenzo Nibali (LIQ) +1"
3 Peter Velits (THR) +1"
4 Joaquím Rodríguez (KAT) +1"
5 Philippe Gilbert (OLO) +5"
6 Tejay Van Garderen (THR) +8"
7 Ezequiel Mosquera (XAC) +12"
8 Nicolas Roche (ALM) +12"
9 Rubén Plaza (GCE) +12"
10 Rigoberto Urán (GCE) +19"

So what we see there is that the stage is mostly a GC man's plaything. More a punchy climber's stage than an uphill sprinter's stage, though the Ardennes specialists like Gilbert could certainly inject themselves into the mix. I would be surprised if they were to beat the likes of Rodríguez and Antón though.

Peña Cabarga:

1 Joaquím Rodríguez (KAT) 4'26'43"
2 Vincenzo Nibali (LIQ) +20"
3 Ezequiel Mosquera (XAC) +22"
4 David Moncoutié (COF) +33"
5 Nicolas Roche (ALM) +34"
6 Fränk Schleck (SAX) +35"
7 Xavier Tondó (CTT) +39"
8 David García da Peña (XAC) +43"
9 Peter Velits (THR) +45"
10 Tom Danielson (GRM) +1'29"

Uphill sprinters? Nah, no way. This one's for the GC men. Especially given that it's the last proper chance for them to affect the classification. I will be shocked, nay, mortified if the uphill sprinters are duking out the win there.

I'm not sure if Sagan is really one for the uphill finishes anyway; not as steep as these anyway. He's one for a sprint of a reduced bunch and a complicated finish, but if Sagan or van Avermaet win on Peña Cabarga I will put up an "RIP HTC-Highroad" avatar. GVA might have a chance on Valdepeñas de Jaén, but I wouldn't expect him to get it.

Stage 3 could well be one for the likes of GVA and Sagan; the climb looks to be about 4,5km @ 6,5% or so, only 15km from the finish. That could be enough to shell the pure sprinters. Stage 6 could also be for them, unless a break is allowed to go. A finish in Córdoba after a loop of the Alto de San Gerónimo is pretty much a given in the Vuelta when it goes in this direction. Lars Boom won from the breakaway there in 2009. Stage 8, well, that's another short sharp uphill finish, but some of the gradients in San Lorenzo de El Escorial are pretty monstrous. Again, maybe GVA can do something but I doubt Sagan can. I expect the Ponferrada stage will go to the breakaway, and they'd need to get themselves into it. I don't know how much time we'd expect them to lose on Ancares though. The intermediate stages 18 and 19 are more likely for the two of them, though stage 19 has the final climb maybe close enough to the line for GC men to break up the party if the battle is close. Stage 20 is likely to be an anticlimax, but those climbs could certainly shed some pure sprinters and give them a chance.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Even more hilarious is Ligthart winning a bunch sprint. He could barely beat Bram Tankink at the nationals.

I don't disagree actually.
No way he would be amongst it on a flat course anyway.

Anyway regarding Friere I agree he could get amongst it on some of the tougher stages. Just not the 'cav' stages. Hausller wouldn't either tho, he is quick but I don't consider him a top tier sprinter.

And Haedo, who can be pretty quick, is one of the most unreliable sprinters around.

 

[therealtimshady]

Vuelta adverts on itv4.

Havent seen them but it brings joy to my heart.

All stages will be live on itv 4 with highlights in the evening, at least we won't have to deal with reduced coverage due to 1st round tennis

 

[l.Harm]

Even more hilarious is Ligthart winning a bunch sprint. He could barely beat Bram Tankink at the nationals.

He was talkin about who could sprint top 10 and it wasn't because the () are lookin so nice I put his name between them.

 

[The Hitch]

You can always use the Sporza stream if ITV doesn't broadcast

Regardless of whether ITV does or does not broadcast I will watch it on Eurosport

Actually ill probably be in Spain so will watch it on TDP.

It just brings joy to my heart that a mainstream company – itv is broadcasting the type of racing I most love – Spanish and Italian,(though if they showed the classics that would also bring joy to my heart).

It’s a completely different world to the cycling they usually broadcast – Phil and paul at Cali and TDF, and some British domestic racing. Of course at Cali they just talk about how everything is a warmup to the Tour (including the Giro apparently) but the Vuelta is just about the only race they cant plug as a Tour warmup.

More to the point the commentary might go to someone who knows something about cycling and the and riders never mentioned in p and p commentary will be the ones competing for the win.

 

[The Hitch]

Is Nicky Roche doing the Vuelta? Last year here was career best performance.

Got them the WT spot to let his good friend Gadret let rip in Il Giro.

Seriously though surely hes doing it and if so a good bet for top 10. Needs to make amends for a poor season so far.

I don't disagree actually.
No way he would be amongst it on a flat course anyway.

Anyway regarding Friere I agree he could get amongst it on some of the tougher stages. Just not the 'cav' stages. Hausller wouldn't either tho, he is quick but I don't consider him a top tier sprinter.

And Haedo, who can be pretty quick, is one of the most unreliable sprinters around.

The One Jose did the Vuelta last year and sucked big time. No reason to believe he can do any better this time though he was awesome in 2 stages in TA.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Another cool battle will be Cavendish vs Kittel showoff. I actually don't think the sprint lineup is that good. Who's there besides Cav, Kittel, Farrar, Petacchi, Bennati?
There are a lot of teams who don't seem to bring anyone who can get a top 10 in a sprint: Cofidis, Ag2r, Katusha, Movistar, Vacansoleil etc.

To be fair, that list does basically include everyone other than the Gorilla, and engages in my pet hate of overrating Kittel based on beating a bunch of scrubs and riders returning from a holiday.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

To be fair, that list does basically include everyone other than the Gorilla, and engages in my pet hate of overrating Kittel based on beating a bunch of scrubs and riders returning from a holiday.

Yeah, you're probably right that most of the top tier sprinters will be there, but there's a lack of depth in my opinion. No sprinters from the lesser teams it seems.

Regarding Kittel he might be overrated and he might not. It's hard to tell yet. He's been superior in most sprints he's contested this year and he has beaten a lot of good sprinters as well. Sure he needs to show what he's capable of versus the top sprinters, but it's hard to show that when they haven't been in the same races yet. Guess the Vuelta will show

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Regarding Kittel he might be overrated and he might not. It's hard to tell yet. He's been superior in most sprints he's contested this year and he has beaten a lot of good sprinters as well. Sure he needs to show what he's capable of versus the top sprinters, but it's hard to show that when they haven't been in the same races yet. Guess the Vuelta will show

Completely agree that he may be or may not be - just a little irratated as loads of people now seem convinced he's the best of the current young crop, despite the fact they've all beaten him this season - his run of wins is just the most recent, but it came in a race with no real established sprinters and most of the people present just building for next week.

Looking forward to seeing Guardini in the Giro next year - of the young guns he's the only 1 so far to actually beat some big names, and given his 100% sprinter status, I suspect he's got a bit more top end than the Kittel/Degenkolb/Matthews hybred riders.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Looking forward to seeing Guardini in the Giro next year - of the young guns he's the only 1 so far to actually beat some big names, and given his 100% sprinter status, I suspect he's got a bit more top end than the Kittel/Degenkolb/Matthews hybred riders.

If they give us a proper Giro course, he'll not even make it to a sprint, then miss the time limit on the first intermediate stage.

 

[Parrulo]

If they give us a proper Giro course, he'll not even make it to a sprint, then miss the time limit on the first intermediate stage.

indeed the guy is just an awful climber. he won the flattest stage of the volta and was completely cooked at the end from the little tiny climbs on that stage.