Vuelta a España - Stage 16: Gijón - Cotobello 181.4 km

[Zinoviev Letter]

If they started 5km earlier Nibali would have easily lost 1 to 2 minutes here.
I hereby declare the entire Vuelta field idiots.

You are assuming that there was a bunch of people capable of attacking from a long way out without putting themselves in more trouble by the end than Nibali.

Look at the top 9 going into today. One of them attacked from a long, long way out (Schleck) and then again early in the final climb. Two others attacked less than halfway up the final mountain (Sastre, Danielson). Tondo wasn't capable of it, quite obviously. Velits was in much the same boat, judging by the way he cracked. Roche has been doing exceptionally well in the Vuelta, but he's hardly likely to just blow the field off his wheel halfway up a mountain top finish. He did however instigate the final flurry of attacks.

That only leaves Purito and Mosquera.

 

[Ney the Viking]

thursday and friday is either sprinter or breakaway with long gone GC riders right?

 

[The Hitch]

Eze is not good in the itt. I wouldn't be surprised if nibali did, tho nibali isn't the greatest ITT'r just a standout amongst the contenders.

It will be quite amusing to see the tt being fought out between 60kg spanish climbers.

Like having Cav race Greipel up Alp d huez.

 

[khardung la]

I think Navacerrada -Bola del Mundo will define things, more than the ITT. After one reaches the top of Navacerrada at 1880 m, there is a VERY tight right curve and then a VERY narrow ****ty cement road starts. Then it is survival mode at +2000 m for more than 3 km, sometimes with ramps of 20%. Rodriguez, Mosquera or Schleck could take even 1-2 minutes if in shape and Nibali fails like today. I don't see how can they not attack in those extreme circumstances.

Nibali will probably win the Vuelta, but he will have to be in tension until the last meter of Bola del Mundo.

 

[The Hitch]

And a decent gap behind him until Velits in sixth - very good ride by Roche. How well does he TT?

Not very. He was interviewed by daddy before tdf tt and said he was expecting to lose minutes to Canc which he did.

 

[Kwibus]

Also according to Sporza, Saturday's last mountain isn't that hard. So I wouldn't really count on big gaps there either.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Ever thought they want to do it, but simply don't have the legs?

On TV I never saw Purito attacking (though I might have missed it). I think Nibali just cracked and lost time to him, rather than Purito gaining time...

The spanish commentator "Carlos" on the motorbike screamed during the
winner arrival shots - 1) Mosquera attacks 2) Joquin attacks
so at least aurally we knew it happened!

 

[The Hitch]

How can he catch Rodriguez? Rodriguez starts after him. And I think it is only 2 minutes gaps.

You are right. My mistake.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

You are assuming that there was a bunch of people capable of attacking from a long way out without putting themselves in more trouble by the end than Nibali.

Look at the top 9 going into today. One of them attacked from a long, long way out (Schleck) and then again early in the final climb. Two others attacked less than halfway up the final mountain (Sastre, Danielson). Tondo wasn't capable of it, quite obviously. Velits was in much the same boat, judging by the way he cracked. Roche has been doing exceptionally well in the Vuelta, but he's hardly likely to just blow the field off his wheel halfway up a mountain top finish. He did however instigate the final flurry of attacks.

That only leaves Purito and Mosquera.

Yeah I think it was more of a case that no one felt good, and thus couldn't attack nibali earlier without destroying themselves. Usually Eze will destroy his chances anyway though

 

[The Hitch]

Also according to Sporza, Saturday's last mountain isn't that hard. So I wouldn't really count on big gaps there either.

Its the first time they used Bola del Mundo but from the looks of it, it is a hard climb.

 

[Ney the Viking]

http://www.climbbybike.com/nl/profiel.asp?Climbprofile=La-Bola-del-Mundo&MountainID=4539 profile link, the picture earlier didnt show, so i sniped the link

 

[khardung la]

Also according to Sporza, Saturday's last mountain isn't that hard. So I wouldn't really count on big gaps there either.

It is hard. The last 3 kms are brutal, and they will climb 3 mountains before Bola del Mundo.

 

[theswordsman]

Just a shame his brother hasnt been there to help him...

.

Nothing he did while he was in the race made me believe he'd have made the selection on the climbs anyway.

Kreuziger is doing great work especially since he's switching teams. Roche did another nice job. Nibali worried me a bit at the end, but it's pretty much down to a rest day, a flat TT, and Bola del Mundo so I still like him for the win.

My Virtual Director Sportif team has guys in 2nd, 5th, 7th and 9th. I hope they all do well Wednesday.

 

[hfer07]

Also according to Sporza, Saturday's last mountain isn't that hard. So I wouldn't really count on big gaps there either.

they need to check the profile once more-- the last kms are a nightmare with slopes up to 20%

 

[Dutchsmurf]

Its the first time they used Bola del Mundo but from the looks of it, it is a hard climb.

They said that people who rode it commented it is typical Spanish. Lots of talk, but doesn't deliver.

 

[Ney the Viking]

http://skysports.html.infostradaspo...EventPhaseID=467068&PhaseID=587765&PersonID=0 stage profile (not very good but its there ) for saturday for those who care.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Its the first time they used Bola del Mundo but from the looks of it, it is a hard climb.

meh i think it wont be to bad. The first half semms reallye asy, and it doesn't kick up to much until the last couple km. Nibali should be alright here (until the last few km i mean, he will die there I suspect). Looks Harder than today though, so should be fun.

 

[The Hitch]

For those who think it easy here is the Bola stage

 

[khardung la]

Its the first time they used Bola del Mundo but from the looks of it, it is a hard climb.

Aside from the profile, it is important to notice that the last bit is in awful condition, it is very exposed to winds, and it is quite high up. With my friends we used to cycle up with a mountain bike, and it really always felt very very tough compared to other mountains around. We did not dare to try with a road bike in the last stretch.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

The last 3km is where - if purito can limit his losses - J. Rod can win the vuelta

 

[roundabout]

Davis 27th on the stage, lol

 

[Dutchsmurf]

The last 3km is where - if purito can limit his losses - J. Rod can win the vuelta

True. And maybe he can win a couple seconds in the Toledo stage too.

 

[Escarabajo]

btw you guys are loads better than all the live tickers combined :d

+1.

........................

 

[khardung la]

For those who think it easy here is the Bola stage

Here you can see the max % in the last kilometers.

 

[khardung la]