Vuelta a España 2021 route rumours

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But then I realised there was only an 8km ITT and a flat stage before it, and a wave of sheer horror came over me as I realised that with Tom Dumoulin having retired and the race backing so closely onto the Tour, there is a distinct possibility that, seeing as he won't have done any work for Roglič in the Tour except on Portet, Sepp Kuss might win the stage and take the leader's jersey, a mental image which repulsed me to and made me want to spend the evening depicting the prophet Muhammad.
This is why I keep comig back to CN
 
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Giro 2017? It had almost 70 km and Dumoulin won after being attacked several times the last week. Do you think they would have attacked more if they added even more TT? I think the climbers have to be within a reasonable distance to be motivated to attack. That Giro was fairly well balanced IMO.

Giro 2019: Okay, I can agree on that.

Giro 2014: Perhaps. Uran with an even bigger gap on Quintana could have promoted more attacks.

Tour 2018: Nah, I think it would have been boring anyway. Thomas was pretty much on par with Dumoulin on the TTs.

Tour 2019: Depends on how much more. A far larger amount would probably pushed the captaincy of Ineos to Thomas. I can't see that would have made the Tour better.
Giro 2017, when it came out, was underhwelming. It could easily have more TTing if the mountian stages were just designed better.

Giro 2019, I'm inclined to say a similar thing. Especially with Gavia being taken out and the final mountain stage just having climbs in a bad order. 2014 was just a bad route overall with just 6 big MTFs or something without much variation.
 
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In another news, Pereiro claims that Escartín and Guillén removed more than 700m of vertical climbing from his original stage 20 route design.
Makes my blood boil. I was thinking there are so many chances to draw some nasty hilly stages in Galicia with no flat kms, and they had to go and cap it to have the "excitement" of small differences in the last ITT stage.
 
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Giro 2017, when it came out, was underhwelming. It could easily have more TTing if the mountian stages were just designed better.

Giro 2019, I'm inclined to say a similar thing. Especially with Gavia being taken out and the final mountain stage just having climbs in a bad order. 2014 was just a bad route overall with just 6 big MTFs or something without much variation.
Giro 2014 was bad, really bad, but without Stelviogate Nairo would have been forced to attack on the final mountain stages.
To me the 2017 Giro route was an attempt to give Nibali and advantage over Quintana (didn't work out that way).
 
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The thing is, if we had better designed mountain stages and could sort out something to disincentivise the hording of talent into a small group of teams and make the train template less successful (also aiding the kind of Louis Meintjes / Adam Yates rider that is just sort of there following that train until they aren't, over the rider who leaves it all out there but comes up short), then it wouldn't be a problem at all. Even if the ITT was a bad day for the audience, they'd reap the rewards long term with more exciting mountain stages and longer periods of action because the climbers would need to do more to compete.

This is an interesting question as to how to do that. Teams have basically been using that (esp at the Tour) since at least Indurain's time. To a smaller degree amateur teams down to the cadet level have used the train template at different times. There are stories about Valverde's cadet and junior teams using that template for him. How to discourage the train will be very difficult.
 
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rghysens, That's a good shout, I usually go for Tuixent-La Vansa as the finish when I go that direction from Pradell, but the Port del Comte double-climb works well.

I've had a few attempts in my Vueltas from the Race Design Thread. The fifth Vuelta in particular had a lot of that type stage, it had very few MTFs and a lot of sawtoothed stages.





There's a lot from other Vueltas, incomplete or abandoned routes, and Spanish short stage races and suggestions for Vuelta stages arising from rumours that I've not always published too.






(there's a good few I'm keeping up my sleeve too, lol)
 
So, if Ganna gets run off the road by a motorcycle, and Quintana finishes ahead of him in an ITT, while Ganna was by far faster on the track, then Quintana is a better ITT'er than Ganna. Thanks for clearing this up. I now know how some of you come to such conclusions. Very enlightening.

The fact is that in both regular ITT's, Campenaerts was clearly faster than Roglic. Roglic only beat him pound for pound, in the opening climbing prologue, which is hardly a reference as ITT's go.
If Campenaerts couldn't win after that brilliant push he received by his mechanic in the San Marino ITT he clearly sucks.
 
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So, if Ganna gets run off the road by a motorcycle, and Quintana finishes ahead of him in an ITT, while Ganna was by far faster on the track, then Quintana is a better ITT'er than Ganna. Thanks for clearing this up. I now know how some of you come to such conclusions. Very enlightening.

The fact is that in both regular ITT's, Campenaerts was clearly faster than Roglic. Roglic only beat him pound for pound, in the opening climbing prologue, which is hardly a reference as ITT's go.
You are again repeating the only argument that helps your narrative while disregarding at least a handful of others that clearly don't. I think I've read recently a post of yours, where you accused a poster of doing the same and you blocked him because of that. You are being contradictory here.

Again. There were 3 ITTs in that Giro. Roglič won 2, Campenaerts zero. The debate should normally stop here. But OK, I'm going to explain a little further.

Of course you've decided which is the main ITT and which ITT is "hardly a reference". I can counter you by saying that you are wrong. The ITT on the first stage should be the most telling one, because the riders are still fresh and actual time trialing ability counts the most. In the other two fatigue and regeneration were a big factor. Roglič was battling for the victory in that Giro, Campenaerts came in the Giro to save energy in all the stages and went all out only in those three ITTs.

Your comparison with Quintana and Ganna is...let's say funny. I know you were exaggerating there to make a point, but it's not a good example. With Roglič and Campenaerts we are talking about riders with similar ITT level at the time. When deciding who is better you clearly search for some kind of tiebreakers. Wins in ITT stages is a sound tiebreaker to use in this situation. Again it was 2 wins to zero. I should also mention that both riders took part in the Tour de Romandie a week before the Giro and guess what, Roglič won the ITT where he destroyed the competition including Campenaerts (who was btw second).

Let's bring up Victor's mechanical. Yes, he had a mechanical in one ITT stage of the three in that Giro. He lost about 20s there and lost the stage by 11s. So he probably would have won without the mechanical. But this things happen. It's part of the sport. It will happen again. Like the changing of weather conditions for the riders. Some are lucky and ride on dry roads, the others are unlucky when it starts to rain and have to ride in wet conditions. And that's exactly what happened on the stage Campenaerts had a mechanical. He was lucky to start on dry roads and ride the majority of his ITT on dry roads. The riders towards the end of the start list (Nibali, Mollema, S. Yates, Roglič, Conti among others) didn't have this luxury. I'm confident in saying that Roglič lost more time because of wet roads than Campenaerts lost because of the mechanical. I posted a highlights video of the stage where you can clearly see the conditions for both riders in consideration on various parts of the course. But you don't care about that, because you see what you want to see. If you want I can post you a Tiz Cycling full stage video, where you'll see that some drops of rain started coming down when Campenaerts was already at 7km to go on the uphill sections. On the other hand Roglič had wet roads for the entire ITT and rain for 95% of it. Multiple riders who rode in the second half of the startlist in the post race interview said that they had to go super slow in the first part because it was slippery and a lot of puddles on the rode. Roglič was one of them.

I'm not by any means comparing their careers as TT riders. I'm not going there because I think I wouldn't be able to decide. Campenaerts is a purer ITT specialist, better on the biggest events lately, while Roglič has more ITT wins. I was talking only for their performance in the Giro 2019. There's no comparison really and I think any objective person would say the same. I'm not expecting you to change your mind because of all my time here on this forum, I've happen to notice how stubborn of a person you are. You rarely (if ever) admit, that you are wrong. And you've been wrong before believe me. You are still a good poster and I like to read your takes. So don't block me, please ;)

Anyway, this discussion has gone too far. Campenaerts shouldn't even be the topic of conversation here. OP was talking about best ITTers among GC riders. That's why after Roglič he mentioned Almeida's ITT performances from the 2020 Giro.
 
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You are again repeating the only argument that helps your narrative while disregarding at least a handful of others that clearly don't. I think I've read recently a post of yours, where you accused a poster of doing the same and you blocked him because of that. You are being contradictory here.

Again. There were 3 ITTs in that Giro. Roglič won 2, Campenaerts zero. The debate should normally stop here. But OK, I'm going to explain a little further.

Of course you've decided which is the main ITT and which ITT is "hardly a reference". I can counter you by saying that you are wrong. The ITT on the first stage should be the most telling one, because the riders are still fresh and actual time trialing ability counts the most. In the other two fatigue and regeneration were a big factor. Roglič was battling for the victory in that Giro, Campenaerts came in the Giro to save energy in all the stages and went all out only in those three ITTs.

Your comparison with Quintana and Ganna is...let's say funny. I know you were exaggerating there to make a point, but it's not a good example. With Roglič and Campenaerts we are talking about riders with similar ITT level at the time. When deciding who is better you clearly search for some kind of tiebreakers. Wins in ITT stages is a sound tiebreaker to use in this situation. Again it was 2 wins to zero. I should also mention that both riders took part in the Tour de Romandie a week before the Giro and guess what, Roglič won the ITT where he destroyed the competition including Campenaerts (who was btw second).

Let's bring up Victor's mechanical. Yes, he had a mechanical in one ITT stage of the three in that Giro. He lost about 20s there and lost the stage by 11s. So he probably would have won without the mechanical. But this things happen. It's part of the sport. It will happen again. Like the changing of weather conditions for the riders. Some are lucky and ride on dry roads, the others are unlucky when it starts to rain and have to ride in wet conditions. And that's exactly what happened on the stage Campenaerts had a mechanical. He was lucky to start on dry roads and ride the majority of his ITT on dry roads. The riders towards the end of the start list (Nibali, Mollema, S. Yates, Roglič, Conti among others) didn't have this luxury. I'm confident in saying that Roglič lost more time because of wet roads than Campenaerts lost because of the mechanical. I posted a highlights video of the stage where you can clearly see the conditions for both riders in consideration on various parts of the course. But you don't care about that, because you see what you want to see. If you want I can post you a Tiz Cycling full stage video, where you'll see that some drops of rain started coming down when Campenaerts was already at 7km to go on the uphill sections. On the other hand Roglič had wet roads for the entire ITT and rain for 95% of it. Multiple riders who rode in the second half of the startlist in the post race interview said that they had to go super slow in the first part because it was slippery and a lot of puddles on the rode. Roglič was one of them.

I'm not by any means comparing their careers as TT riders. I'm not going there because I think I wouldn't be able to decide. Campenaerts is a purer ITT specialist, better on the biggest events lately, while Roglič has more ITT wins. I was talking only for their performance in the Giro 2019. There's no comparison really and I think any objective person would say the same. I'm not expecting you to change your mind because of all my time here on this forum, I've happen to notice how stubborn of a person you are. You rarely (if ever) admit, that you are wrong. And you've been wrong before believe me. You are still a good poster and I like to read your takes. So don't block me, please ;)

Anyway, this discussion has gone too far. Campenaerts shouldn't even be the topic of conversation here. OP was talking about best ITTers among GC riders. That's why after Roglič he mentioned Almeida's ITT performances from the 2020 Giro.
I skipped through the entire stage before you posted the recap, so i already had a better idea of when the bad weather started. I find it funny that you think you know exactly what the conditions were, because it's impossible to tell. There were parts where Ciccone was riding in the sun, where it had previously rained, while the finish section he had to deal with was probably the worst of all. There were parts where Campenaerts had more rain than other (not all) riders before and after him. That means there was also quite a bit of wind for the weather to be so hectic. Impossible to say who lost more time where, because you can not see the wind on your screen. I'm willing to admit the weather was highly likely not in his disadvantage, but that's about as much as you can say about that. While the mechanical, having to come to a complete stop, being pushed off your bike by your mechanic, having to get going UPHILL again, and getting back into your rythm, is a much more clear disadvantage. You say 20 seconds, i think it's easily more than that.

And no, the prologue is about as atypical as ITT's come. It wasn't long, and the deciding factor was the climb. So no, i am not wrong here, you simply have a different view on things. I'm willing to bet if the tables were turned with Roglic and another rider (with Roglic in Campenaerts' place) you'd be making a different argument. Yes, Roglic won two ITT's, nobody's debating that. You can win a race and not be the best. Campenaerts was faster in 2 of the 3 ITT's without his bad luck, he would have won the main ITT, and they both would have won one ITT, with Campenaerts finishing well ahead in the third ITT, which in that case would be the tiebreaker. I'm frankly offended that you are comparing me to Zoef, i propose you go back a few pages into the Evenepoel thread and read exactly how he debates. Even if i were to block you, you would still be able to read my posts. But i don't block people because they disagree with me. I'm sure i've been wrong before, i can only assume everybody on this forum (or in the known universe) has been wrong before. That's all i have to say about that. You can slap the "two wins" in my face all week and twice on Sunday, it will not change my mind, it will not change the fact that without his mechanical, Campenaerts would have won the main (long) ITT and finish ahead of Roglic in the third.
 
So no, i am not wrong here, you simply have a different view on things. I'm willing to bet if the tables were turned with Roglic and another rider (with Roglic in Campenaerts' place) you'd be making a different argument
That's a dishonest way to argue. Not just claiming that he is biased, but that in an imagined situation (which hasn't occurred) he would act biased, as you would 'know'.
 
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That's a dishonest way to argue. Not just claiming that he is biased, but that in an imagined situation (which hasn't occurred) he would act biased, as you would 'know'.
It says "I'm willing to bet". Maybe run it through a translator in case you don't know what it means. I'm not claiming anything, just saying that he's a huge Roglic fan, and that we're talking about very subjective matters. Roglic won two ITT's vs Campenaerts was faster in two ITT's. Who was "the best" =/= who was "the fastest".
 
I skipped through the entire stage before you posted the recap, so i already had a better idea of when the bad weather started. I find it funny that you think you know exactly what the conditions were, because it's impossible to tell. There were parts where Ciccone was riding in the sun, where it had previously rained, while the finish section he had to deal with was probably the worst of all. There were parts where Campenaerts had more rain than other (not all) riders before and after him. That means there was also quite a bit of wind for the weather to be so hectic. Impossible to say who lost more time where, because you can not see the wind on your screen. I'm willing to admit the weather was highly likely not in his disadvantage, but that's about as much as you can say about that. While the mechanical, having to come to a complete stop, being pushed off your bike by your mechanic, having to get going UPHILL again, and getting back into your rythm, is a much more clear disadvantage. You say 20 seconds, i think it's easily more than that.

And no, the prologue is about as atypical as ITT's come. It wasn't long, and the deciding factor was the climb. So no, i am not wrong here, you simply have a different view on things. I'm willing to bet if the tables were turned with Roglic and another rider (with Roglic in Campenaerts' place) you'd be making a different argument. Yes, Roglic won two ITT's, nobody's debating that. You can win a race and not be the best. Campenaerts was faster in 2 of the 3 ITT's without his bad luck, he would have won the main ITT, and they both would have won one ITT, with Campenaerts finishing well ahead in the third ITT, which in that case would be the tiebreaker. I'm frankly offended that you are comparing me to Zoef, i propose you go back a few pages into the Evenepoel thread and read exactly how he debates. Even if i were to block you, you would still be able to read my posts. But i don't block people because they disagree with me. I'm sure i've been wrong before, i can only assume everybody on this forum (or in the known universe) has been wrong before. That's all i have to say about that. You can slap the "two wins" in my face all week and twice on Sunday, it will not change my mind, it will not change the fact that without his mechanical, Campenaerts would have won the main (long) ITT and finish ahead of Roglic in the third.
I could go on and write another long post, but I don't see the point. Just wanted to add that I agree with you about the first ITT being atypical (BTW the "main" ITT was also atypical, first part flat, second part practically a MTT). I just wanted to show you, that I can easily counter your reasoning for deciding which ITT was the most relevant, by saying that in the 2nd and 3rd Roglič was a lot more fatigued in comparison with Victor, because he was in the middle of a GC battle every day. Also notice how I didn't even mention that Roglič was sick in the 3rd one. But if you can use the atypicality of the ITT and mechanical problems in your defense, I should use weather conditions, GC battle fatigue and sickness in my. In the end the results count. Otherwise (mind I'm exaggerating here) I could have said that Roglič was the best TT rider in the 2017 Tour, even though he was far from winning in both. It's just that he crashed in the first and had a mechanical in the second.

Yes, I am a Roglič fan, but I think I'm an objective one. I'm a kind of fan who knows a lot about the rider, his strength and weaknesses , his past results... Not the kind of fan who hypes up a rider without reasoning and brings up ridiculous takes. I've never done that. Actually, I occasionally criticise him , maybe even when he doesn't deserve it. So no. If the situation would be reversed, I'd never bring up something that happened 2 years ago. A situation in which I know I'd be wrong all along and about a topic that has nothing to do with the discussion going on in this thread.

Edit:
I've just looked up the results of all the 3 ITTs and checked the gaps. Roglič (who won the stage) beat Campenaerts for 53!!! seconds in the prologue. On the other hand Campenaerts (didn't win the stage) beat Roglič for 22 seconds in the last ITT despite Roglič being sick and dying at least three times in the week before that (on Civiglio, on Mortirolo and on Monte Avena). I rest my case.
 
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I could go on and write another long post, but I don't see the point. Just wanted to add that I agree with you about the first ITT being atypical (BTW the "main" ITT was also atypical, first part flat, second part practically a MTT). I just wanted to show you, that I can easily counter your reasoning for deciding which ITT was the most relevant, by saying that in the 2nd and 3rd Roglič was a lot more fatigued in comparison with Victor, because he was in the middle of a GC battle every day. Also notice how I didn't even mention that Roglič was sick in the 3rd one. But if you can use the atypicality of the ITT and mechanical problems in your defense, I should use weather conditions, GC battle fatigue and sickness in my. In the end the results count. Otherwise (mind I'm exaggerating here) I could have said that Roglič was the best TT rider in the 2017 Tour, even though he was far from winning in both. It's just that he crashed in the first and had a mechanical in the second.

Yes, I am a Roglič fan, but I think I'm an objective one. I'm a kind of fan who knows a lot about the rider, his strength and weaknesses , his past results... Not the kind of fan who hypes up a rider without reasoning and brings up ridiculous takes. I've never done that. Actually, I occasionally criticise him , maybe even when he doesn't deserve it. So no. If the situation would be reversed, I'd never bring up something that happened 2 years ago. A situation in which I know I'd be wrong all along and about a topic that has nothing to do with the discussion going on in this thread.

Edit:
I've just looked up the results of all the 3 ITTs and checked the gaps. Roglič beat Campenaerts for 53!!! seconds in the prologue. On the other hand Campenaerts beat Roglič for 22 seconds in the last ITT despite Roglič being sick and dying at least three times in the week before that (on Civiglio, on Mortirolo and on Monte Avena). I rest my case.
I agree with Logic. San Lucca in a short TT makes it unusual and not at all suited to Campenaerts.

The San Marino TT wasn't close to a MTT, check the percentages. And Campenaerts would have won were it not for his mishap and the hilarious push.

Now, why the matter is important is another question entirely.
 
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Sorry for the off-topic.
In case someone missed this interview with Escartín:

He's got some interesting words about stage 5.

Escartin says that the 2021 route into Albacete, from the northern side, has been specifically designed to give every chance for echelons to form. "We've been deliberately nasty", he says with a laugh, "but that's what every race organiser does."
"It's much harder than it used to be for echelons to form because teams race more as single units now, all grouped together, so we've done our best in the route design to catch them out.
"There's a big corner with about 20 kilometres to go that could prove the detonation point, and then it's dead straight all the way into Albacete. Hopefully, that should help the race get caught in the cross-tailwinds you tend to get in that area because those are the best for echelons."
He's just inaccurate about the distance. The corner he talks about is 30km from the finish.
 

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