Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2021: Stage 9 (Puerto Lumbreras - Alto de Velefique, 188.0 km)

[Krzysztof_O]

This is a proper mountain stage reaching the highest point of the race (Alto Collado Venta Luisa at 1970 m ASL). There will be no mountain stages until the next weekend so expect serious GC action tomorrow. The Velefique is easier in the second half but (hopefully) the race will detonate in its first part. Hopefully no more anticlimatic MTFs at the Vuelta.

Alto Collado Venta Luisa

Velefique:

 

[will-10]

Ineos and Movistar seem to already be thinking Roglic won't be beaten mano-a-mano, and could well be down to just Kuss for most of the day if things kick off early. I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

[Red Rick]

Cervinia 2015 vibes.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

After an easier-than-usual route so far, it's time for the queen stage (in theory at least, it has slightly more elevation gain than the Asturian stages) on the Vuelta's favourite position of the second Sunday. The previous mountains have produced very little in the way of gaps between the remaining contenders, if that doesn't change here it will essentially be a one-week race to decide the winner, but the profile at least has potential for major action.

The first quarter of the stage is straightforward, then the route rises in four steps to the Alto de Cuatro Vientos. The climb matches the profile below as far as the junction to Macael at 8k, then finishes with another 2.6k at 6.2%.

After the descent, there's one final sustained flat section before the hardest climb of the race so far, Collado Venta Luisa. This climb marks the highest point of this year's race, and unlike in 2009, the riders take it on from what is probably its hardest side (then again, that stage also featured a second ascent of Velefique). With only three ESP climbs all race, I'm somewhat surprised at it only being a cat. 1. Either way, it's the profile below minus the final stretch from the pass to Calar Alto.

The remainder of the stage is identical to the 2009 one, with Alto de Castro de Filabres (the profile below from the junction to Collada Venta Luisa onwards) as the obligatory link...

...to the start of Alto de Velefique, with 5k at 9.1% early on followed by more gradual climbing. It didn't cause large gaps in 2009, then again both the following stages ended on harder MTFs and that year's race was hampered by defensive racing in general, leaving cause for some optimism. Either way, it's the first 18.5 k of the profile below.

 

[SafeBet]

That middle section of Venta Luisa looks juicy but I guees too far from the finish and too early in the race to have any proper attack right?

 

[sir fly]

Any wind?

 

[ice&fire]

That middle section of Venta Luisa looks juicy but I guees too far from the finish and too early in the race to have any proper attack right?

Astana will drill it to get rid of Sepp Kuss, so Vlasov can advance from 9th to 8th.

 

[roundabout]

Jumbo while not probably able to easily control stages seem to have an adequate team not to fear this stage

Movistar lost Valverde who despite not really being a super aggressive rider in the Vuelta would have given them additional tactical options and the remaining team is not strong enough to isolate Roglic from a significant distance without Lopez or Mas committing to an attack from far out.

Ineos have to make a choice to sacrifice Carapaz or Yates as it is probably the only way to leave Roglic isolated and I feel that they won't make that decision yet.

Bahrain look weaker than expected from the top down so the best they can probably do is to put Mäder/Caruso in the break.

I hope to be wrong as usual, but I feel that this would be a wait and see GC shakeout stage without any major moves off the front.

 

[Red Rick]

That middle section of Venta Luisa looks juicy but I guees too far from the finish and too early in the race to have any proper attack right?

Maybe someone like Carapaz.

I think Ineos and Movistar will more likely just launch Yates and MAL on the steep part of Velefique, leaving Bernal and Mas to sit on Roglic. Kuss better have a huge day tomorrow.

 

[Sciatic]

I definitely don’t think of this stage as the queen stage: yeah there’s the total elevation gain, but a sizable chunk of that is accrued from the rolling terrain of the 1st 75 km and from the long shallow approach to Luisa before that climb gets steeper. And all that earlier stuff will be ridden at a pretty tranquil pace by the peloton. I think of the Covandonga stage as the queen stage ( or perhaps the day that follows).

 

[Red Rick]

I definitely don’t think of this stage as the queen stage: yeah there’s the total elevation gain, but a sizable chunk of that is accrued from the rolling terrain of the 1st 75 km and from the long shallow approach to Luisa before that climb gets steeper. And all that earlier stuff will be ridden at a pretty tranquil pace by the peloton. I think of the Covandonga stage as the queen stage ( or perhaps the day that follows).

It's 100% the stage to Gamoniteiru.

 

[Red Rick]

Jumbo while not probably able to easily control stages seem to have an adequate team not to fear this stage

Movistar lost Valverde who despite not really being a super aggressive rider in the Vuelta would have given them additional tactical options and the remaining team is not strong enough to isolate Roglic from a significant distance without Lopez or Mas committing to an attack from far out.

Ineos have to make a choice to sacrifice Carapaz or Yates as it is probably the only way to leave Roglic isolated and I feel that they won't make that decision yet.

Bahrain look weaker than expected from the top down so the best they can probably do is to put Mäder/Caruso in the break.

I hope to be wrong as usual, but I feel that this would be a wait and see GC shakeout stage without any major moves off the front.

I think the final climb will be pretty aggressive because it's a good place to play the numbers game.

 

[roundabout]

I think the final climb will be pretty aggressive because it's a good place to play the numbers game.

Yeah, seems like a sensible strategy. I still feel that other teams are not strong enough to isolate Roglic without attacking with one of their leaders first and I believe that Kuss/Kruijswijk will be there to chase down that first attack if it happens early.

 

[RunningRouleur]

This stage has incredible potential. I doubt it will live up to it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I created a thread for stage 9 a few hours back. Why was it deleted?

 

[Red Rick]

I created a thread for stage 9 a few hours back. Why was it deleted?

..........

I accidentally hit the unapprove button instead of the sticky button.

Aaand merged.

 

[RedheadDane]

Going all tobydawq on us, then trying to remove the evidence, huh?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

..........

I accidentally hit the unapprove button instead of the sticky button.

Aaand merged.

That would explain why I didn't see a thread was up already, thought I was the one who'd pulled a Toby there.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

excited to see Roglic sprint the last 400m of the stage after doing jack *** but countering. And then everyone else failing to get away ofcourse

 

[Sciatic]

It's 100% the stage to Gamoniteiru.

Okay, good to know. Hope the one doesn’t nullify the racing on the other.

 

[Bonimenier]

All hope rests on Carapaz' shoulders to try something crazy.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Having rode a full Tour (for GC), plus the Olympics, I don't think we can expect much from Richie, both on this stage and for the rest of the race.

More likely that Yates will challenge Roglic, or Bernal if he wasn't too effected by covid. Other than that I still consider Landa a chance because of a) personal bias, and b) hasn't raced much this season and could get stronger as the race goes on.

 

[joe_papp]

Anyone have a good longshot for stage honors? Gimme something non-ridiculous, but intriguing, please!

 

[gregrowlerson]

Anyone have a good longshot for stage honors? Gimme something non-ridiculous, but intriguing, please!

Well Mader is somewhat of a realistic prediction this time

P.S. Aren't "longshot" and "ridiculous" the same thing?

P.S.2. Fabio Aru.

 

[Rackham]

Well Mader is somewhat of a realistic prediction this time

P.S. Aren't "longshot" and "ridiculous" the same thing?

P.S.2. Fabio Aru.

Mader on the attack, leading the stage in the last km's on the final climb... with the red jersey group rapidly closing the gap.

What could possibly go wrong?