Vuelta a España 2022: Pre-race discussion/hype tread

[tobydawq]

Bookmakers just react to betting action. They don't just know the correct odds, if the betting population is mistaking on the real odds, the odds won't magically be correct.

They don't "just" react to betting action.

 

[Bonimenier]

O'Connor is the one who is under-rated - He was a very strong third in the Dauphine - He brings this form to the Vuelta and he'll be at the pointy end.

I agree. He'll clean up this race with ease.

 

[search]

according to the SBS preview, Haig will most likely not start btw.

May also be the reason why Bahrain hasn't confirmed their team yet

 

[tobydawq]

according to the SBS preview, Haig will most likely not start btw.

May also be the reason why Bahrain hasn't confirmed their team yet

Did they say why? Still injured?

 

[search]

Did they say why? Still injured?

no, Matt Keenan just said "We are hearing that Jack is not gonna be starting this year. That is not confirmed either way."

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Evenepoel is as much a GC favorite as Danilo di Luca before 2005. Brilliant classic specialist, but hasn't produced anything that lists him as a GC rider. Has failed to produce gc performances repeatedly instead.

There might be a Di Luca 2005 and maybe even 2007 Giro d'Italia moment in the future . He's 22 after all and can develop.

But this big mouth talk that it's definitely this race when this moment appears is both ridiculous and comical.

Nothing supports that viewpoint, until Evenepoel suddenly rides a good general classification out of the blue.

Winning 9 one-week GC's in roughly 3 seasons, being one of the 5 best TT'ers on the planet, having shown elite (record) climbing abilities on certain occasions including on 30 minute climbs ... those are the traits of a classic specialist who has no chance of winning a 3 week GC.

 

[KZD]

Evenepoel is as much a GC favorite as Danilo di Luca before 2005. Brilliant classic specialist, but hasn't produced anything that lists him as a GC rider. Has failed to produce gc performances repeatedly instead.

There might be a Di Luca 2005 and maybe even 2007 Giro d'Italia moment in the future . He's 22 after all and can develop.

But this big mouth talk that it's definitely this race when this moment appears is both ridiculous and comical.

Nothing supports that viewpoint, until Evenepoel suddenly rides a good general classification out of the blue.

If Evenepoel had failed to produce gc performances repetedly, he wouldn't have won races like the Tour of Poland, Algarve*2 or Norway. Even if he is still not one of the best stage racers in the world being a small guy with such a big engine and winning pedigree, currently 4th in the World Tour ranking, the potential is certainly there.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Winning 9 one-week GC's in roughly 3 seasons, being one of the 5 best TT'ers on the planet, having shown elite (record) climbing abilities on certain occasions including on 30 minute climbs ... those are the traits of a classic specialist who has no chance of winning a 3 week GC.

Ritchey Porte says hello

 

[Bonimenier]

Ritchey Porte says hello

Porte, the classic specialist?

 

[Riek s]

Ritchey Porte says hello

is that the guy who has a 5th and a 3rd place in the tour?

 

[Boes]

Ritchey Porte says hello

So perhaps we should call Remco the Belgian Richie Porte?
Or are we still on the Spilak thingy?

Btw, Imo Porte could have won tour de france 2017 if he didn't crash out in the descend taking Martin with him. And I think this kind of fits for Evenepoel (hopefully not the crashing part). I fully believe one day Evenepoel will win a grand tour GC. But it's possible it'll happen when he's 32 years old instead of in the next couple of years.

Even if he doesn't win soon, one day there'll be a grand tour where he woun't have a bad day and TT's his way to the win.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Ritchey Porte says hello

You know Richie? Give him my regards.

If you are referring to his GC results, he has won 10 in a long career. He has also podiumed the TDF, which people seem to forget as it doesn't fit the meme. Furthermore, because there are certain riders who did well in one week GC's, but weren't able to follow up on that in 3 week GC's, doesn't mean every rider who does well in one week GC's will subsequently fail at 3 week GC's.

 

[Red Rick]

They don't "just" react to betting action.

They also react to lines of other bookmakers move.

A few bookies will start the initial line somewhere, which is when relatively small bets will move the line a LOT still.

 

[Lequack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559605008601174021

View: https://twitter.com/daniellloyd1/status/1559605008601174021

 

[hill]

You know Richie? Give him my regards.

If you are referring to his GC results, he has won 10 in a long career. He has also podiumed the TDF, which people seem to forget as it doesn't fit the meme. Furthermore, because there are certain riders who did well in one week GC's, but weren't able to follow up on that in 3 week GC's, doesn't mean every rider who does well in one week GC's will subsequently fail at 3 week GC's.

Yeah that's true, but considering someone top GT favourite because of winning few one week races without GT level competition is kind of strange to me. I know that he has had some good performances on difficult climbs even compared to the best ones, but Carapaz, Hindley, Almeida or Roglic are IMO much bigger favourites. They showed that they all are able to consistently deliver good climbing performances on GTs, while Remco had trouble to be consistently the best one even on one week races with higher competition. There just isn't the evidence to tell that Remco is the number one favourite based on previous results (and that is how you are probably trying to predict the winner before the race starts).

 

[yaco]

Haig is having a second operation after his crash in the TDF - He's out for the rest of the year.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

is that the guy who has a 5th and a 3rd place in the tour?

3rd place in a puncheur TDf because his rivals on the ITT were Lopez Superman and Landa. 5th behind Simon Yates and Bardett

Porte, the classic specialist?

Come on Bonimener you know what is my point.

 

[hill]

My prediction:

1. Almeida
2. Hindley
3. Carapaz/Mas

 

[Bonimenier]

Come on Bonimener you know what is my point.

Not really, ilmaostir

 

[topcat]

OK. 3 of the big 4 are confirmed to start. Will Contador come out of retirement for one last blast at the Vuelta? Not as far fetched as some of the theories I've read here over the last few days.
It's the most hilarious route I've ever seen for a gt. Put that together with the wacky commentary here and it could be the funniest 3 weeks of the season.

 

[staubsauger]

Since when do races like Algarve, Norway or Poland transist into gc ability? These are preperation races that don't tell too much.

Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico it's becoming more serious as a yard stick, depending on the route. Switzerland, Dauphine and Basque Country are the real deal when estimating someone's gc ability. Even there, someone like Fuglsang simply never had the recovery for 3 weeks.

Evenepoel failed at T-A. Failed again at Switzerland. If not for a tactical situation that worked in his favor, he would have lost minutes even on the queen mountain stage of Basque Country. Then y'all talk about winning a grand tour? Based on what? Nothing, so far.

Y'all and Quick Step themselves think you support Evenepoel. Y'all rather *** around with him, frankly.

You develop, you learn. You get better from experiences. Good and bad ones. But being talked up as a big gc guy, being fielded in grand tours without any proper preparation (No Burgos, starting your season with the Giro d'Italia) and thus failing, while looking like a clown and feeling like a piece of *** doesn't give you any fruitful experience. It's just useless failure.

He's young. Let him be a classic specialist and shine big there. Or let him properly target GT racing. But this clownery actually is harmful for Evenepoel himself if it doesn't work out at the Vuelta a Espana!

It both annoys me (the overly jubilating) and makes me angry (sending into failures due to inappropriate preparation).

 

[tobydawq]

3rd place in a puncheur TDf because his rivals on the ITT were Lopez Superman and Landa. 5th behind Simon Yates and Bardett

So to sum up; podium in the Tour.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yeah that's true, but considering someone top GT favourite because of winning few one week races without GT level competition is kind of strange to me. I know that he has had some good performances on difficult climbs even compared to the best ones, but Carapaz, Hindley, Almeida or Roglic are IMO much bigger favourites. They showed that they all are able to consistently deliver good climbing performances on GTs, while Remco had trouble to be consistently the best one even on one week races with higher competition. There just isn't the evidence to tell that Remco is the number one favourite based on previous results (and that is how you are probably trying to predict the winner before the race starts).

Sure, but i think we can all agree that Evenepoel is not just ''considering someone top GT favourite because of winning few one week races without GT level competition''. First of all, he beat GT level competition, i have no idea why people keep acting as if beating Carapaz, Landa, Gaudu, Lopez, Roglic, Kelderman, Vingegaard, Yates, Hart... are all nobodies when it comes to GT's. Because he has beaten all of them in GC races, most more than once. Secondly, i think what he has shown throughout his short career is proof that he is an extraordinary talent, and not just another guy who just can get results in small races. Two WCC and two ECC ITT medals, from the age of 19 onward, shows he has a huge engine. Youngest winner of Liège since the late 1960's by telling everyone smell ya later. Two entries at Classica, two wins in dominating fashion.

The problem is that every time he doesn't perform, people take it as evidence that he can't do it. While every time he succeeds, he still has everything to prove. But when other riders finish 20 minutes down, the same does not apply and they remain contenders. Regardless, i agree he still has to show it in a GT, but acting as if the potential is not there is simply stupid.

Since when do races like Algarve, Norway or Poland transist into gc ability? These are preperation races that don't tell too much.

Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico it's becoming more serious as a yard stick, depending on the route. Switzerland, Dauphine and Basque Country are the real deal when estimating someone's gc ability. Even there, someone like Fuglsang simply never had the recovery for 3 weeks.

Evenepoel failed at T-A. Failed again at Switzerland. If not for a tactical situation that worked in his favor, he would have lost minutes even on the queen mountain stage of Basque Country. Then y'all talk about winning a grand tour? Based on what? Nothing, so far.

Y'all and Quick Step themselves think you support Evenepoel. Y'all rather *** around with him, frankly.

You develop, you learn. You get better from experiences. Good and bad ones. But being talked up as a big gc guy, being fielded in grand tours without any proper preparation (No Burgos, starting your season with the Giro d'Italia) and thus failing, while looking like a clown and feeling like a piece of *** doesn't give you any fruitful experience. It's just useless failure.

He's young. Let him be a classic specialist and shine big there. Or let him properly target GT racing. But this clownery actually is harmful for Evenepoel himself if it doesn't work out at the Vuelta a Espana!

It both annoys me (the overly jubilating) and makes me angry (sending into failures due to inappropriate preparation).

Pushing watts over a certain period has little to do with the opposition, or when exactly in the season you push them. If it is during training or during prep, 6.5W/kg over 30 minutes is pushing 6.5w/kg over 30 minutes. Doesn't matter if it's in the Tour or in Langkawi. Your ridiculous description of his performance in Itzulia (where his rivals were actually working together against him) is quite telling of the agenda you are trying to push here. If you are annoyed, you are doing it to yourself.

 

[houtdffan]

Who is better than Hindley??

Probably only Almida could be stronger

Of course Roglic but I don't think you can win a grand tour on 10 days training.

Evenpeol didn't even fished a grand tour. He also has not to have a tantrum for 3 weeks , and survive the Sierra Nevada. Maybe he can do it, but there's not reason to call him the favourite.

Almida should be the favourite. Motivated, strong, good climb and ITT and at altitude. But on paper Hindley has a good chance

This likely isn't going to be the wheel suck Giro 2.0

Can Hindley actually survive long range, full out racing. That's what's coming here

 

[Ilmaestro99]

This likely isn't going to be the wheel suck Giro 2.0

Can Hindley actually survive long range, full out racing. That's what's coming here

He did it on 2020 Giro. Stelvio mate.