Roglic at 95% and the other 5-7 contenders in decent shape is going to make this a very competitive edition despite the route. I literally have no idea who will win, but if up to 6-8 people can, it's clearly better than the 3 that could win the tour.Maybe I'm a pessimist fan, but I'm not that optimistic about Roglic being in top shape for 3 weeks.
If he takes a week and half to hit a good level that would actually be very exciting for the race because he'd likely lose time first then go ballistic later.