Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2022, stage 10: Elche - Alicante, 30.9k (ITT)

[Devil's Elbow]

The sole ITT of the race... doesn't look especially appetising this time. It's purely down to power output on the flat, with very little in the way of elevation gain or technical sections, not much in terms of scenery either, and an Evenepoel demolition job - for both the stage and the GC - seemingly the only possible outcome.

And the weather? We're not in northern Spain anymore, so you know the drill - mostly sunny and windless and the only variation for the rest of the race should be whether it's just hot or scorching hot.

Here's the start order.

...and with that I've run out of things to talk about in this post, thankfully there will be more depth to add for later stages.

 

[Angelo1985]

I think Mas won't sleep much tonight, he will hope Remco doesn't close the gap too fast tomorrow.

 

[sir fly]

Looks like they'll ride against the (mild) wind for most of the course.
34 minutes seems to be the target.

 

[Angelo1985]

Looks like they'll ride against the (mild) wind for most of the course.
34 minutes seems to be the target.

I had a dream last night of the time trial, Remco had an average speed of 57.7 km/h lol.

 

[staubsauger]

This has Remco written all over it, unless some rest day disaster happens.

 

[sir fly]

I had a dream last night of the time trial, Remco had an average speed of 57.7 km/h lol.

Slept on draught?

 

[red_flanders]

It'll be very interesting to see what Roglič can do tomorrow.

 

[Angelo1985]

It'll be very interesting to see what Roglič can do tomorrow.

If he is good he will lose to Remco, but with only 30 sec. or so i think. If he is not good then it will be closer to 1min. 30 to 2 minutes.

 

[red_flanders]

If he is good he will lose to Remco, but with only 30 sec. or so i think. If he is not good then it will be closer to 1min. 30 to 2 minutes.

I have a real hard time imagining he'd lose 2 mins, barring incident. If Evenepoel wins, great. If he gets 30 seconds, outstanding. A minute seems like the outer limits to me.

 

[Rackham]

It'll be very interesting to see what Roglič can do tomorrow.

He lost 40 seconds or so versus Ganna on a similar TT profile in the Dauphiné.

So a 30 second time loss versus Evenepoel would be an "educated guess", with all the usual caveats involved (respective physical conditions, temperature, wind, different race etc.).

 

[ice&fire]

I think Mas won't sleep much tonight, he will hope Remco doesn't close the gap too fast tomorrow.

Mas lost 2:04 to Roglic last year over 33.8km after Roglic lost his way for a while.
He will be overtaken by Remco in the stage and by Roglic in GC

 

[hfer07]

This stage is a showdown between Roglic & Remco to establish the gaps that will separate them for the rest of the race. If Primoz loses a significant amount of time, then it's an indication of his form not being optimal for the GC battle task. In that case, then Remco can widen the current gap so the gains can be carried over to the rest of the race with the proper team support. Perhaps Hindley & Almeida can surprise

 

[Riek s]

Cavagna can win this as well. Its false flat on the negative, he is a power house and should probably put the markers down for Remco.
same story for Dennis Rohan. Should be a favorite as well.

Remco.. he is still a light weight aero focussed rider. There are others who push a lot more power which is still the biggest asset in this kind of TT. (unless there is a real headwind).

I think he is the favorite of all the GC riders and probably a sure top3. Roglic has been all over the place, from doing good 6,4W/kg to 6.1w/kg so i don't think he is that bad, just misses that small %. Flat courses are not his cup of tea, so guess a deficit of 10-30seconds on Remco.
the other GC candidates i expect > 1m30)


edit: Arensman will also do well. Probably one of the best after Remco/Roglic related to GC.

edit 2nd: a Reminder from an interview after the TTT with Remco:

"You will see that for me this helmet is a lot faster than the normal one," he said. "But you have to wait a good week for that."

so he better is throwing all in the dust if the helm makes that much difference! (and i'm not talking about smoke coming out of his helmet because he is burning up in the heat with his necksock )

 

[ice&fire]

Can't believe what I see on the roadbook. The finish is located 100m after the big roundabaout of Plaza de los Luceros.

Google Maps

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[Angelo1985]

And let's not forget Remco will wear his special helmet, according to him he has an advantage of 26 sec. on 40 km with this helmet.

 

[Frobisher Bay]

Cavagna can win this as well. Its false flat on the negative, he is a power house and should probably put the markers down for Remco.
same story for Dennis Rohan. Should be a favorite as well.

Remco.. he is still a light weight aero focussed rider. There are others who push a lot more power which is still the biggest asset in this kind of TT. (unless there is a real headwind).

I think he is the favorite of all the GC riders and probably a sure top3. Roglic has been all over the place, from doing good 6,4W/kg to 6.1w/kg so i don't think he is that bad, just misses that small %. Flat courses are not his cup of tea, so guess a deficit of 10-30seconds on Remco.
the other GC candidates i expect > 1m30)


edit: Arensman will also do well. Probably one of the best after Remco/Roglic related to GC.

edit 2nd: a Reminder from an interview after the TTT with Remco:


so he better is throwing all in the dust if the helm makes that much difference! (and i'm not talking about smoke coming out of his helmet because he is burning up in the heat with his necksock )

Apparently, Lefevre instructed all riders of QS not named Evenepoel to take the TT as a Sunday stroll. So I would discard Cavagna's chances.

 

[staubsauger]

I forgot about Arensman. The darkhorse. But with DSM I fully have restday desaster on cards.

 

[Big Doopie]

yup no way cavagna tries hard.

wondering if dennis will even try since they too are down kuss.

i'd like to think remco can win this with btwn 0-20 secs on rog (rog after all demolished everyone in the Olympic ITT).

2 mins on mas would be good, but 1.30 would be sweet enough.

 

[Riek s]

Apparently, Lefevre instructed all riders of QS not named Evenepoel to take the TT as a Sunday stroll. So I would discard Cavagna's chances.

didn't hear that. in hindsight it makes sense since the ride is probably not that hard to predict on how to ride

 

[Escarabajo]

I just can't see how anybody else can win this. Again Remco trying to put this Vuelta to sleep. It could be enough for the remainder of the race. We'll see.

 

[sir fly]

Should Remco need pacing guidelines, QS can always designate riders for intermediates and still keep them fresh.
Though by the time he starts there should be enough fast marks.

 

[KZD]

Evenepoel has to be the favourite for the stage. He was third in the European and World Championships last year on flat non-technical courses against the best in the world. One name that no one mentioned yet but that I think that could be closer to Remco, and could even threaten his win, is Hayter., who actually beat Roglic by a significant margin in the Dauphiné TT. Dennis is also a candidate but I don't see him as strong as Remco nowadays.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Evenepoel has to be the favourite for the stage. He was third in the European and World Championships last year on flat non-technical courses against the best in the world. One name that no one mentioned yet but that I think that could be closer to Remco, and could even threaten his win, is Hayter., who actually beat Roglic by a significant margin in the Dauphiné TT. Dennis is also a candidate but I don't see him as strong as Remco nowadays.

He’s second favourite with the bookies.
He’s 7/1. Remco is 1/4
I’m tempted as he’s hasn’t spent much energy in comparison.

 

[Riek s]

Evenepoel has to be the favourite for the stage. He was third in the European and World Championships last year on flat non-technical courses against the best in the world. One name that no one mentioned yet but that I think that could be closer to Remco, and could even threaten his win, is Hayter., who actually beat Roglic by a significant margin in the Dauphiné TT. Dennis is also a candidate but I don't see him as strong as Remco nowadays.

Good call, he is also a power guy who let it go on the hard days.

Actually Remco might be in form, but if we consider him having same CdA as Roglic for instance, he needs to do 6,5W/kg where Roglic only needs 6.3W/kg for the same power output. So imagine guys who weight ~70kg on this parcour... (5,8W/kg) So to win this his cda needs to give him the desciding factor, and i only see that really happening with a headwind. (i'm going of that it is also slight negative gradient). I think the really light riders will get a slap

 

[Oliver]

Remco to take a lot of time.