Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2022, stage 16: Sanlúcar de Barrameda - Tomares, 189.4k

[Devil's Elbow]

The sprint stage that isn't really a sprint stage.

Most of the day is almost completely flat as we head away from the coast and around Sevilla, then the final 15 kilometres through the suburbs are more hilly. First we have the uncategorised Cuesta de Valencina, coming at about 12k to go.

After a plateau and an easy descent, we once again find ourselves on a finale that was used in 2017. The final 4 kilometres are identical to the 2017 stage. Although it doesn't look extremely imposing, the finale proved to be too much for most sprinters. Matteo Trentin won because it was 2017, outkicking Moscon and Kragh Andersen, with Froome, Nibali and Contador all finishing in the top-10. In addition to the inclines, there are also a bunch of roundabouts to watch out for - no less than 10 in the final 4.2 kilometres.

 

[KZD]

Pedresen should have this.

 

[ice&fire]

Sanlúcar de Barrameda celebrates tomorrow the 500th anniversary of the completion of the first Grand tour

 

[Red Rick]

Jumbo should make it really hard to try to weed out the sprinters

 

[Eyeballs Out]

The 2017 result makes this finish look like one for the punchers but on closer inspection there weren't really any sprinters in the race that year. If anything this looks slightly easier than the stage Pedersen won on Friday

 

[Sciatic]

Fred Wright to get it right this time?

 

[Volderke]

Coquard maybe.

 

[staubsauger]

Coquard intended to leave the race after Sierra Nevada!

 

[Escarabajo]

That looks like 1/2 km at 9.7%. I think there are going to be some gaps here. That's just too steep to ignore it. Maybe few seconds for Roglic.

 

[Riek s]

That looks like 1/2 km at 9.7%. I think there are going to be some gaps here. That's just too steep to ignore it. Maybe few seconds for Roglic.

Its still almost 3 km after that small bump and that bump is maybe 300meter from that graph in OP. If roglic attacks here, everyone will be in his wheel. there is no point for trying here unless you can get a gap in the peleton before that climb is hit.

 

[roundabout]

rewatched the 2017 final on youtube just now and it was easier than I remembered

should be no problem for the more complete sprinters, imo

Edit: the last 4 km had an average speed of over 44 km/h in 2017

 

[Red Rick]

The point of the steep pinch is to drill it with your team and punish the sprinters.

Should be careful about Evenepoel attacking over the top.

 

[Davesta]

On paper it looks like an obvious Pedersen win, but JV will surely see it as an opportunity for Roglic to take some bonus seconds and keep eating into Remco’s lead

 

[Oldermanish]

On paper it looks like an obvious Pedersen win, but JV will surely see it as an opportunity for Roglic to take some bonus seconds and keep eating into Remco’s lead

And JV can hopefully save the leadout/punishment efforts to the last kms. They need to be around and helpful a few more stages or gaining a stage, time bonus....may be worth nothing.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Looks like a stage for sprinters. That likely comes down to some GC movement. As for the finale. JV will try to keep Roglič at front hence why not.

 

[movingtarget]

The way Pedersen is riding he'll be hard to hold out. Maybe not hard enough for the likes of Roglic.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I’ll throw a Hail Mary out there and say Evenepoel to go on a flier to spice things up.

 

[Boes]

Merlier seems te have problems getting over a mole hile so I think Alpacin might not bother to much with chasing so that leaves Pedersens team.

I wouldn't be suprised if the break stays away, certainly if it has some stronger motors like De Gendt and if f.e. Alpacin sends some guys in the break (Meurisse maybe?).

 

[spalco]

I’ll throw a Hail Mary out there and say Evenepoel to go on a flier to spice things up.

Really unlikely imo, unless he's desperate for a road stage win.

Also, like Boes i think a win from the break is probable.

 

[Roku]

Sanlúcar de Barrameda celebrates tomorrow the 500th anniversary of the completion of the first Grand tour

It makes sense that Vingegaard won this year's TdF, from a sailor (Elcano) to a fishmonger, the circle is completed.

 

[RedheadDane]

I wouldn't be suprised if the break stays away, certainly if it has some stronger motors like De Gendt and if f.e. Alpacin sends some guys in the break (Meurisse maybe?).

Pedersen...

 

[Gratemans]

Oh I'm sure they'll allow him to be in the break.

And Nibali will win the GC.

Hey, I believe I just saw a pig flying!

 

[SHAD0W93]

Really unlikely imo, unless he's desperate for a road stage win.

Also, like Boes i think a win from the break is probable.

Unlikely but they could surprise Movistar and TJV. Especially how the last few kms are set up it’d be good for him if Evenepoel was in good shape.

 

[glassmoon]

This should be no problem for Mads to hang on in his current form... perfect opportunity for him.

 

[Lequack]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIM8v8Wu5ic

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjTNrpyxQ5Q