Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2022, stage 16: Sanlúcar de Barrameda - Tomares, 189.4k

The sprint stage that isn't really a sprint stage.

Most of the day is almost completely flat as we head away from the coast and around Sevilla, then the final 15 kilometres through the suburbs are more hilly. First we have the uncategorised Cuesta de Valencina, coming at about 12k to go.

After a plateau and an easy descent, we once again find ourselves on a finale that was used in 2017. The final 4 kilometres are identical to the 2017 stage. Although it doesn't look extremely imposing, the finale proved to be too much for most sprinters. Matteo Trentin won because it was 2017, outkicking Moscon and Kragh Andersen, with Froome, Nibali and Contador all finishing in the top-10. In addition to the inclines, there are also a bunch of roundabouts to watch out for - no less than 10 in the final 4.2 kilometres.
That looks like 1/2 km at 9.7%. I think there are going to be some gaps here. That's just too steep to ignore it. Maybe few seconds for Roglic.
Its still almost 3 km after that small bump and that bump is maybe 300meter from that graph in OP. If roglic attacks here, everyone will be in his wheel. there is no point for trying here unless you can get a gap in the peleton before that climb is hit.
Merlier seems te have problems getting over a mole hile so I think Alpacin might not bother to much with chasing so that leaves Pedersens team.

I wouldn't be suprised if the break stays away, certainly if it has some stronger motors like De Gendt and if f.e. Alpacin sends some guys in the break (Meurisse maybe?).
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