Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2022, stage 9: Villaviciosa - Les Praeres, 171.4k

[Kwibus]

For the viewers it would be great if Evenepoel started fading in week 3. It wouldn't be the first time we've seen a rider fade who dominated in the first week.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I am hoping though that Roglic and Mas do get better, it will be better for us viewers that they give us hope until the third week. Or at least that they try to do a Froome on Finestre kind of move.

Remco is only going to get better, if anything Roglic and Mas will fade further.

 

[Lequack]

Well if they can't beat him with raw power, they should use tactics. Long range attacks, splits in the peloton, etc.

 

[topcat]

I am hoping that Nibali explains just exactly what the hell he's doing at this vuelta. Is it a prep race for the autumn classics or is it just a goodbye?
Remco should win, Mas will probably ride solidly and most unspectaculary for 2nd and Roglic has a fight on his hands for 3rd. Or all this gets turned on its head, but it's unlikely.

 

[Rollthedice]

I am hoping that Nibali explains just exactly what the hell he's doing at this vuelta. Is it a prep race for the autumn classics or is it just a goodbye?
Remco should win, Mas will probably ride solidly and most unspectaculary for 2nd and Roglic has a fight on his hands for 3rd. Or all this gets turned on its head, but it's unlikely.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Well if they can't beat him with raw power, they should use tactics. Long range attacks, splits in the peloton, etc.

Long range attacks vs the guy who reinvented the longe range attack. What has ever been Mas' longest range attack? 50 meters?

After the TT Evenepoel will likely be 2m30s ahead of Roglic and 3 minutes ahead of Mas and 4-5 minutes ahead of everyone outside the top 3. As soon as we hit those timegaps in GC the best they can hope for is that either he fades or bonks, or that they have a very good day on Sierra Nevada and put everything they've got into an attack on that day. It's quite possible that once they trail 3 minutes in GC, that they will start looking at each other, rather than attack Evenepoel. Why would Mas go in an all out attack, jeopardise his podium spot with a rather small chance of success? Or are they going to team up and attack him in succession as if they were teammates? Never saw that happen in all those years i was hoping that rivals had the courage to attack Indurain, Armstrong, Froome... like that together. Instead, they usually started riding after each other to preserve their spot in GC, effectively doing the GC leader a favor because now he didn't have to do it, only making things ''worse''.

With those timegaps he and his team can start riding defensively and start conserving some power. He can now follow wheels and it's up to his rivals to attack. The other teams who have a second GC option close in GC are already trailing 4.5 to 6 minutes, and will be closer to 6-8 minutes after the TT. So let's say Almeida, Valverde, Hart or Sivakov go on the attack, they are too far behind to really bother Evenepoel instantly, and guys like Yates or Hindley will sooner start chasing those guys in order to preserve their spot in the top 10, than Evenepoel has to worry about them.

So even if they manage to sneak Almeida, Sivakov, Valverde in a huge break in the beginning of a stage, Bora and BEX would help out in the chase and there is a sizable margin before they become an actual threat. They (those riders in the attack) would also need to recover very well from the endeavour and raise their level considerably from now on, since they have been dropped every MTF so far.

I think they will hope he bonks, or hope to make up lots of time on Sierra Nevada. The way he's been riding so far, they only risk getting suckerpunched the moment they try to attack him on similar terrain and be worse off.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Was wondering is Alaphilippe OK with the role he has been given on this GT?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Was wondering is Alaphilippe OK with the role he has been given on this GT?

Of course, he showed he wasn't ready on stage 4 and immediately worked 110% for Remco once that was glaringly obvious to everyone. Credit where credit is due to Julian, what a great rider, and he's Remco's best man - by far - despite him not being the best climbing dom on the team.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Valv.Piti

I see. I assume that if Evenepoel wins this GT. Then Alaphilippe will be perfectly happy to do the same at lets say TDF 2023.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Basically what i am asking is. In regards to this race. Will at some point Alaphilippe switch to the world championship mode? Considering his hefty contribution so far.

 

[ice&fire]

Was wondering is Alaphilippe OK with the role he has been given on this GT?

The only stage in the first two weeks that fits his skills was stage 4. He may have another chance in stage 16, but that will require a 3km attack.

 

[Red Rick]

You either retire a hero or you find yourself doing wheelies like other meme riders

 

[Carols]

Yup, nowadays roughly speaking the Tour is for the best GC riders in the world, the Vuelta is for the guys that missed their goals in the Giro or the Tour and young upcoming talents to test themselves and the Giro is for the GC riders that are not good enough to win in the Tour (apart from a few exceptions like Froome and Dumoulin in 2018).

An d Contador in 2008, 2011 and 2015.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Basically what i am asking is. In regards to this race. Will at some point Alaphilippe switch to the world championship mode? Considering his hefty contribution so far.

He's been poor so far this season. He wasn't ready on stage 4. If he were 100% fit, then he would have had the freedom to ride his own race, i'm sure. If he and Remco did the TDF, i assume he would ride like Van Aert did this year. Sometimes the team defending his chances, sometimes him working for the GC rider in the team.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Logic-is-your-friend

Personally i am not all that sure about that. It's likely over for Alaphilippe in this team and in regards to GT racing. That is ever having remotely the level of freedom he enjoyed so far.

I guess best to wait and see.

 

[Valv.Piti]

An d Contador in 2008, 2011 and 2015.

*2012 and 2014.

And no, Contador couldn't ride in either 2008 or 2012 and crashed in 2014.

 

[hayneplane]

One thing that i noticed with Ayuso, is that on one of the two longer MTF, he faded rather quickly towards the end, going from around 10s behind Evenepoel and Mas, to 40s behind in the last 3k.
In the other of the two longest MTF, he lost a chunk of time to even Yates and Rodriguez.

Not sure if this is going to become a pattern. Could simply be his age, or maybe he's more of a murito type of climber and not a HC type climber.

Could also just be a pacing issue of going too deep while he is feeling good and dropping rivals but not riding at a rate he can sustain to the finish.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Could also just be a pacing issue of going too deep while he is feeling good and dropping rivals but not riding at a rate he can sustain to the finish.

So you mean inexperience i guess? Yeah, that's possible. Question remains, how will he fare on a really long climb?

 

[hayneplane]

So you mean inexperience i guess? Yeah, that's possible. Question remains, how will he fare on a really long climb?

Pretty much yes. The fascinating thing is that all 3 of the riders up there fresh as not having ridden a Grand Tour this year have very few reference points regarding recovery/high altitude/35 minute+ climbs/team leadership in a 3 week race.

Exciting times ahead. Remco should put 30-60 seconds into Roglic in the ITT and at least 90 seconds into everyone else in the top 20 bar Almeida who could be in the 60 seconds range.