Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 11: Padrón - Padrón, 166.4k

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It's hilarious how all the Roglic haters were talking crap before the climb even started.
Like all the lovers were saying Vuelta was in the bag after stage 8. Hilarious how his back is always the excuse for his underperformance but when he was winning, his back was better than ever. I believe his back is better than ever but he is not at his peak shape because he had a suboptimal preparation which cause him to oscilate his perfomance significantly.
 
Cattaneo was very good today, he paced the chase group after Carapaz's pull and dropped O'Connor.

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Like all the lovers were saying Vuelta was in the bag after stage 8. Hilarious how his back is always the excuse for his underperformance but when he was winning, his back was better than ever. I believe his back is better than ever but he is not at his peak shape because he had a suboptimal preparation which cause him to oscilate his perfomance significantly.
I think the latter point is correct, but I’m not sure you get how strangely variable bad back injuries can be. Yeah, could be he does the “woe is me refrain” but also could be he’s simply transparent about his condition. I mean, if most riders were were honest about their physical condition in the midst of a GT, most would probably say they hurt like hell and can’t imagine they have to do this for 10 more stages.
 
20 kph block headwind on the climb today.

Does explain the " couldnt drop Landa" part of the equation
Only Rogla and Mas survived the sprint at the start of the climb. O'Connor, Sivakov, Carapaz and Cattaneo were the only ones to hit the wind before the last few hundred meters of the climb behind Rogla and Mas. None of them made it to the top with the first. Headwind and positive split made for wildly different efforts.
 
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How much time can Rogla take on everyone else at the last ITT?
Roughly twice that of the opening ITT.

Mas +44"
Carapaz +46"
O'Connor +1'10"
Landa +1'36"

Probably less than that on Landa though.

So the GC with that in mind would be:

O'Connor
Rogla +2'06"
Mas +3'32"
Carapaz +3'46"
Landa +5'06"

Doesn't look very comfortable for O'Connor to defend that on 5 MTFs.
 
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