Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 13: Lugo - Puerto de Ancares, 175.6k

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Roglic is still having issues with his back otherwise wouldn't have left 11 minutes to the break. So I'm guessing the strategy is to get like 30 sec from O'Connor in each mountain stage while surviving if Mas attacks.

That's not his style though. Rog is fine where he is. This sort of slow motion approach to a quasi uniperto finale is usually his bread & butter.
 
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He needs to get back 2 minutes, slow motion approach is good for O'Connor as well

Not on an explosive climb. With the right legs Rog will explode O'Connor, either today or most likely on Sunday. Rog's own kryptonite meanwhile is a full gas long stage with an infernal pace over multiple cols.

That sort of happened on Sunday (due to the fight for the breakaway) but by & large it requires a team with strong riders to pull for hours, like Visma & UAE do in the TdF.
 
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I’m a little surprised Woods is the favourite ahead of Vine, who I thought actually looked pretty good on Stage 9 when he helped set up Yates.

I also believe Woods is subtly in decline. He turns 38 next month and (excluding a weak national champs) hasn’t won since TDF last year.
 
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So after all these years Enric Mas has still not figured out that the slower and easier a race is, the better it is for Roglic? Well, it appears that mr. Mas is happy and satisfied with his potential 4th second place GC finish in Madrid.
Mas did drop Roglic but had a descending problem so lost all the time he gained, but the last stage ITT should be in Roglic's favour so Mas needs a cushion over Roglic.
 
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