Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 9: Motril - Granada, 179.2k

[Taxus4a]

Really hard stage today, one of the hardest of this edition and even la Vuelta, although the climbs are not long. But with this hot cpould be very important.

It is not in a decisive part of the race but could play an important role of the hole Vuelta. It is hard from the begining, and quite long. I would prefer an small climb in the last 5 km, just 500 m al 5, but anyway is a very good designed stage with 4500 elevation gain.

Last Km is this way:

It is always descent or almost flat, but the last 400 m is about 2 %. So, it better than nothing and maybe in an sprint of 3 riders not just the faster is sure for win. Anyway, is a perfect final for Roglic. I hope, anyway, the get Granada one by one.

We will se if Mas attack from far with determination. He could win this Vuelta for elimination, but for that is always better to have an strong team. Basso won that way one Giro...But is not the best way to be remembered...and he is not so diesel at Basso, and attack is the best way for Roglic dont get bonus.

 

[Taxus4a]

So Bora will try everything today to crack O Connor

I hope everyon e stays on their bike and well

They should, but Roglic is not a pure climber and his rivals Mas and Landa yes. If he do that he could lose time at the end. Today is not an explosive stage.

Antway if he put 2 minutes on O Connor and lose 20 seconds with Landa, Mas or both, it woudl be ok.

 

[Rackham]

There's a few things Rog might struggle with in a bike race, i.e. take your pick: stage length, stage pace (aka how much energy expenditure he might suffer), weather (he hates the rain & cold but especially the cold) & then there's the nature of the climbs & their repetition, which ties into the previously mentioned pace in the bunch: a strong pace (we're talking something massive like Jumbo on the Joux Plane stage of the 2023 TdF) over those sorts of Alpine cols will most likely cook Rog just enough to hurt him. Pretty much in the same way he really doesn't like a 250km monument.

I don't see that sort of scenario in today's profile.

 

[MLKarlos]

I want to say one thing. I love Giro d'italia, it is probably my favourite race in the world and those climbs full of snow and those green landscapes are so beautiful in the spring but I think Giro and Vuelta should be swaped in the calendar. These 40° stages are so difficult and demanding, almost unfair to human body. Vuelta doesn't have those high altitude stages like the Giro so the risk of a stage being cancelled is lower in the Vuelta. And Italy doesn't have these horrific hot weather in the summer that we always have in Spain (specially Andaluzia).
What do you guys think about this?

agree. Or move the Vuelta back to mid/end September..also something I would consider

 

[topcat]

In the old days, sprinters could not compete at the marathon. But today, thanks to the iPhone, food and ice baths, anything is possible.
I expect major splits in the herd on the first time up the climb and a h bomb on the second time up.

 

[Mayo from Mayo]

Looks a strong likelihood of being a GC day.

Roglic at about $2.40 is too short. If it were a mountain top finish, then maybe. But the descent to the finish opens up other possibilities even if Roglic is the strongest on the climb.

Which leads me to Carlos Rodriguez at $34.

1. These are basically his home roads (home town is only about 20km from stage finish in Motril).

2. Form is improving - sneakily looked much better today on a climb that didn't suit. I say "sneakily" because it wasn't immediately obvious how good he was until I re-watched it. First, he was delayed by the crash early in the climb. This meant that when his group made it back to the leaders he was caught out in the split when Roglic attacked with about 2.5km to go and others in front of him couldn't hold wheels. Then he dragged a small group back up to the Roglic group. He ended up being the first finisher of those that were delayed by the crash,

3. Outstanding descender.

4. Sits 2:06 behind Roglic on GC, so Roglic needn't worry about giving Carlos 20-30s if he wants to take more risks on the descent.

5. Stage profile is PERFECT for him. Similar to Stage 14 of TDF last year when he caught Tadej and Jonas on the descent and rode away for stage win.

Anyway, just my thoughts. Should be a great stage to watch (and a horrible one for the riders in this heat, yikes).

Thanks Johan.

 

[KZD]

I think this has the potential to be one of the hardest stages of the year and will probably be fought among the GC riders.

The way Roglič has been riding I don't think its impossible that he drops everyone like on Covadonga 2021 however I think its more likely that he finishes today with Landa and Mas (if the latter doesn't get drop on the descent) and outsprints them.

As for O'Connor, I think he will struggle a lot but should still be able to keep the red jersey as the descent finish works in his favour.

 

[Samamba]

I hope there won't be a lot of talk about these descents today cause they look pretty scary. Super super high speed. If anything goes wrong there your're in throuble. The fact that downhill section go immediately into the steep climbs will also not help.

 

[Coffeeplanter]

I want to say one thing. I love Giro d'italia, it is probably my favourite race in the world and those climbs full of snow and those green landscapes are so beautiful in the spring but I think Giro and Vuelta should be swaped in the calendar. These 40° stages are so difficult and demanding, almost unfair to human body. Vuelta doesn't have those high altitude stages like the Giro so the risk of a stage being cancelled is lower in the Vuelta. And Italy doesn't have these horrific hot weather in the summer that we always have in Spain (specially Andaluzia).
What do you guys think about this?

Moving the Vuelta back is the only viable and realistic option, for RCS would never accept a swap, and they'd be right. Very little riders care about the Vuelta, it's a place where they come to (somewhat) salvage their season. If you win the race: cool, if you don't: cool as well. The amount of riders that make it their season goal consists of no more than neos and PCT Spaniards. The RCS certainly isn't opting for a place on the calendar that makes their race borderline irrelevant.

We had the covid variant of la Vuelta in 2020: 18 days in the heart of autumn, it was great. Should be the standard.

 

[Barnacle Bill]

Bit depressed that I'll see less of this stage than a stage in the Tour of Poland, among other races. Hope they step up their game in the coming years.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Maybe it’s a political thing. That’s how I interpret it

Agreed. There's a couple of things on Sivakov's wiki page that jump out at me that I think Vlasov could potentially have issues with, but due to their political nature it's not something we can discuss on this forum. And on that note...

Hopefully this is the last hot day for a while, I'm running out of popsicles! Also, Nairoman to squeeze his way into the top 40 today.

 

[Heston]

Is the final descent technical? Difficult to imagine Mas gaining time if it is. Landa maybe

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Why are so many people talking like the Vuelta hasn't done the Purche/Hazallanas descent over and over?

 

[ice&fire]

Why are so many people talking like the Vuelta hasn't done the Purche/Hazallanas descent over and over?

Because a mid-stage descent preceding a hard climb is not raced like a descent finish.

 

[balac]

Will be interesting who wants to send satellites up the road.

QST and Jumbo spring to mind. Bora can send Lipowitz, I guess?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

IMO the real problem with the current GT spread is that they've moved them further and further forward. Vuelta was a September race, Giro was anywhere between mid-May and early June until not very long ago, and the Tour has also started to creep into June. Makes the weather a lot more problematic for both Giro and Vuelta. IMO Giro should start in the 3rd weekend of May, Tour the weekend before Bastille Day, and Vuelta first or second weekend of September. Of course, that doesn't really work in an Olympic year, but the trend exists outside those years too + shouldn't impact the Vuelta.

 

[ice&fire]

They're on. Wout on the attack. He's seen the stage has a hard climb twice and has thought "I won one like this in France".

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Because a mid-stage descent preceding a hard climb is not raced like a descent finish.

They did Purche descent finishes into Granada three times in the 00s, and Ruta del Sol has done both that and the Hazallanas descent finish quite recently.

 

[balac]

They're on. Wout on the attack. He's seen the stage has a hard climb twice and has thought "I won one like this in France".

Probably wants to return the favour to Kuss. Maybe Kuss wants to attack on the first pass on Hazallanas? Who knows?

 

[Heston]

I really miss the full stage coverage from the Tour on a day like today. Hopefully we will get all 3 climbs at least.

 

[balac]

UAE trying to get Yates in GC contention again. Gaudu also on the early breakaway. That's not a good break for the peloton.

 

[Samamba]

This will be carnage really soon as it's already going uphill, not steep, but it is going uphill and UAE is trying to dynamite this race. Don't think Bora wants to get him back into contention.

 

[Heston]

Damn thats an interesting break. Good for the race.

 

[balac]

Already 1 minute up. This stage is setting up fantastically with Yates and Gaudu on the break with Kung, Vine and Soler there.

 

[Samamba]

And of course instead of just pulling together with Vine, Soler tries to go solo for absolutely no reason.