Vuelta a Espana - who's going to win?

[Ripper]

Why do people like Cyclingmad invent stuf?

Gesink did NOT lose over a minute to Sanchez, in fact, he lost 45 seconds to Sanchez, and 30 to Evans/Valverde. He even won time on Basso/Mosquera

Stop seeing Gesink as a bad time trialist. What's more, the second time trial is not dead flat but hilly. And Gesink top ten' even top 5'ed in hilly tt's of 20/30km...

Pay attention to my posts for once

Hey there, Gesink also has a shot. I like Sammy's chances a bit more just because he seems to be able to descend really well when he needs to (and he needs to, having set his whole season on this race). Oh, and 1-2 stages may really suit someone who can attack and descend well.

At least these 2 may be able to muster some fun over the final week.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I only fear for Gesink's ability to maintain his strength to the end. I remember last year's vuelta he was really struggling at the back end of the vuelta on a medium mountain stage. I do however think he as grown a lot from the already impressive rider he was last year.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Why do people like Cyclingmad invent stuf?

Gesink did NOT lose over a minute to Sanchez, in fact, he lost 45 seconds to Sanchez, and 30 to Evans/Valverde. He even won time on Basso/Mosquera

Stop seeing Gesink as a bad time trialist. What's more, the second time trial is not dead flat but hilly. And Gesink top ten' even top 5'ed in hilly tt's of 20/30km...

Pay attention to my posts for once

I agree cyclingmad does invent stuff. Gesink is not a great time trialist but he is not bad. Personally i don't see valverde having a bad so it's really a fight for the podium spots for the rest of the riders.

Just a funny thing i say S/L's site as they put Dekker's birthday up. Weird. has dekker talked to you since the doping incident?

You should try to re name yourself gesink_tifosi as you have clung on to him now!

 

[cyclingmad]

Invention

Why do people like Cyclingmad invent stuf?

Gesink did NOT lose over a minute to Sanchez, in fact, he lost 45 seconds to Sanchez, and 30 to Evans/Valverde. He even won time on Basso/Mosquera

Stop seeing Gesink as a bad time trialist. What's more, the second time trial is not dead flat but hilly. And Gesink top ten' even top 5'ed in hilly tt's of 20/30km...

Pay attention to my posts for once

You are right I miscalculated the gap from Sanchez to Gesink in the TT from the results my apologies.

I may have made a mistake in a calculation but if you read through my posts you will notice that I stick to facts.

Why did you claim I made this up??

Claiming I just make things up is an accusation without any knowledge of why I posted the information or any supporting facts.
So basically I could accuse you of making this up to try and discredit my views (generally) because you like Robert Gesink or I have missed something you posted somewhere that I didn't see.

Anyway I am interested in peoples opinions and information so thanks for pointing out my mistake.

Your comment is fair about Gesink upon further research he does hold his own on a TT okay.

IMO I just cant see him beating Valverde in a TT when Valverde has the splits to follow. I can see Sanchez winning from here if he can be within 30 secs on the last TT

The comment that Sanchez is a better Time Trialist than Evans that Auscycle93 picked up is based on results I looked back over and found Sanchez has beaten Evans more often than the other way around. If someone can show a head to head record that proves this is wrong please post this.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I never think or thought he would beat any of those guys. Just saying his TT is decent enough to hold a podium spot this Vuelta (which is now his main objective)

 

[cyclingmad]

View at the start and end

I agree cyclingmad does invent stuff. Gesink is not a great time trialist but he is not bad. Personally i don't see valverde having a bad so it's really a fight for the podium spots for the rest of the riders.

Just a funny thing i say S/L's site as they put Dekker's birthday up. Weird. has dekker talked to you since the doping incident?

You should try to re name yourself gesink_tifosi as you have clung on to him now!

At the beginning of this thread you were expecting Valverde to choke and that Sanchez was your favourite to win.

What has changed your view that Valverde wont have a bad day?
You have posted a lot of comments criticising Valverde previously

The situation now looks very similar to 2006 when he lost the race to Vinokourov in 2 stages. Do you now think he has learned from his past mistakes and will come through?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

We're down to five guys with any real hope, and I have to like Valverde's chances, unless he has a joux sans, or Sanchez cranks the ITT or the descent into La Granja on 19. Despite his place, I dont see Gesink winning, without some luck. I also wouldn't count Basso out at this point, merely because he has such good stamina, and a penchant to attack in situations like this. I can see him putting hurt into people on Stage 18, and then testing to see who's still got it on 19.

Here are the five left:

1 Alejandro Valverde
2 Robert Gesink :31
3 Samuel Sánchez 1:10
4 Ivan Basso 1:28
5 Cadel Evans 1:51
6 Ezequiel Mosquera 1:54

Stage 18 should have finished on a tougher climb, but 19 still has a good chance though. But if riders attack, repeatedly, those days could really stir things up, especially on the Puerto de Navacerrada, which has a technical descent as well.

Stage 18 profile:

Stage 19:

 

[Mellow Velo]

The Avila stage has this, but it is reached 50kms from the finish....


A launch pad, or a bridge too far?

 

[auscyclefan94]

At the beginning of this thread you were expecting Valverde to choke and that Sanchez was your favourite to win.

What has changed your view that Valverde wont have a bad day?
You have posted a lot of comments criticising Valverde previously

The situation now looks very similar to 2006 when he lost the race to Vinokourov in 2 stages. Do you now think he has learned from his past mistakes and will come through?

Valverde has rode a more patient tour, sanchez has had some bad luck and so has evans and schleck so his challengers have fallen away. Mosquera can't tt and gesink was not going to be able get enough time on valv in the mountains to keep him away in the tt. Gesink is a little young as well. basso can't climb with valverde or can't tt with an evans or sanchez. Sanchez can challenge valverde in hte final days as i don't want him to win.

 

[powderpuff]

One thing everyone seems to have overlooked here in regards to Cadel's performance at this race; it was never a focal point and had he done well at the TdF he most probably would have pulled out well before now. His season was based around peaking for July not his race, he maybe even got his peak a little early for July. To be this close to the lead is a bloody good effort, considering all those around him have peaked for this race.
After the TdF he spent a week on holiday then 2 weeks in Livigno in the mountains.
Without the pathetic tyre change he could be still in second or 3rd place.
Don't discount him yet, in May 2006 he was well behind Contador and Valverde before the last TT at Tour de Romandie, and he absolutely smashed them over 22km; so he does have it in him.
Whether he can make it to the podium, I hope he can but no matter the outcome he has ridden a good race.

 

[Izoard]

One thing everyone seems to have overlooked here in regards to Cadel's performance at this race; it was never a focal point and had he done well at the TdF he most probably would have pulled out well before now. His season was based around peaking for July not his race, he maybe even got his peak a little early for July. To be this close to the lead is a bloody good effort, considering all those around him have peaked for this race.
After the TdF he spent a week on holiday then 2 weeks in Livigno in the mountains.
Without the pathetic tyre change he could be still in second or 3rd place.
Don't discount him yet, in May 2006 he was well behind Contador and Valverde before the last TT at Tour de Romandie, and he absolutely smashed them over 22km; so he does have it in him.
Whether he can make it to the podium, I hope he can but no matter the outcome he has ridden a good race.

Good points. He has done extremely well given his non-focus on the event, and one of the worst ways to lose time (said tire change).

BTW, that avatar is a bit scary!

 

[auscyclefan94]

One thing everyone seems to have overlooked here in regards to Cadel's performance at this race; it was never a focal point and had he done well at the TdF he most probably would have pulled out well before now. His season was based around peaking for July not his race, he maybe even got his peak a little early for July. To be this close to the lead is a bloody good effort, considering all those around him have peaked for this race.
After the TdF he spent a week on holiday then 2 weeks in Livigno in the mountains.
Without the pathetic tyre change he could be still in second or 3rd place.
Don't discount him yet, in May 2006 he was well behind Contador and Valverde before the last TT at Tour de Romandie, and he absolutely smashed them over 22km; so he does have it in him.
Whether he can make it to the podium, I hope he can but no matter the outcome he has ridden a good race.

Some very good points. He also smashed valverde in that tt when valverde was coming off some strong form in the ardenne classics. It will be unlikely nbut i think if he can gain some time on the guys ahead of him in stage 18 and 19 then a podium place and possibly the win could be within reach though the win is unlikely.

 

[Ibanez]

Can't help rooting for Valverde. Would be fun to see Sanchez dop like a stone on stage 19 to win a Vuelta though.

 

[cyclingmad]

Comeback

One thing everyone seems to have overlooked here in regards to Cadel's performance at this race; it was never a focal point and had he done well at the TdF he most probably would have pulled out well before now. His season was based around peaking for July not his race, he maybe even got his peak a little early for July. To be this close to the lead is a bloody good effort, considering all those around him have peaked for this race.
After the TdF he spent a week on holiday then 2 weeks in Livigno in the mountains.
Without the pathetic tyre change he could be still in second or 3rd place.
Don't discount him yet, in May 2006 he was well behind Contador and Valverde before the last TT at Tour de Romandie, and he absolutely smashed them over 22km; so he does have it in him.
Whether he can make it to the podium, I hope he can but no matter the outcome he has ridden a good race.

Evans has done well given that this is not his focus for the year. He is one of the most consistent riders racing all through the year just like when he was mountain biking.

In terms of performance in the last TT the best comparison is performances in the Tour of the Basque country and Vuelta since 2007 and even the Vuelta 2006.

Over a distance of 20-30k at the end of the race in Spain on a similar course he has usually been around 8th to 10th place and lost between 15 secs and 55 secs to Sanchez and been beaten by Valverde on some of these occasions as well. The first TT in the Vuelta this year although similar distance is flatter and he still didn't make much impact on Valverde Sanchez or Gesink.
In the tour of the basque this year both Cadel and Gesink did the same time

Where you will find Cadel has had the great form taking over a minute of his rivals was in the first Vuelta TT in 2007 where he was in the top 3 but that was flat and over 50k. 2007 was also Cadels best ever year even though he didn't win any races.

These results can all be found searching on the cyclingnews site for these specific races and finding the TTs. I haven't got time to post every single link and specific gap

It seems more likely Gesink, Valverde and Sanchez will be the top 3 with the gaps and style of course.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

One thing everyone seems to have overlooked here in regards to Cadel's performance at this race; it was never a focal point and had he done well at the TdF he most probably would have pulled out well before now. His season was based around peaking for July not his race, he maybe even got his peak a little early for July. To be this close to the lead is a bloody good effort, considering all those around him have peaked for this race.

you could say the same for gesink. Remember like evans, his main season objective was the tour. Unlike evans, Gesink also had a broken wrist to deal with. Then again Evans rode the entire tour, but he rode it half pace, like LA did the giro. Finishing with the sprinters in the climbs? I doubt he wasted as much energy as past years.

Evans is an experienced rider, he should be able to handle 2 GTS at this stage of his career, even more so after a rather average ride in the first GT (Menchov similar position in 07 vuelta after a poor tour. He smoked the field.) He just riding like many have in the past, so imo he really hasn't done anything to special in spain. Good ride yes, Extrodinary ride... no.

Valverde is the one who impresses me. He brings results in all year long.

 

[powderpuff]

Then again Evans rode the entire tour, but he rode it half pace, like LA did the giro. Finishing with the sprinters in the climbs? I doubt he wasted as much energy as past years.

He finished with the grupetto on two stages. In the last time trial he had the second fastest split(after Canc) from the point check point to the finish. He may have had less stress physically for a few stages but mentally the race was very stressful due to Coucke and others. On Ventoux he missed the split, it wasn't his intention to finish 5 minutes back I can assure you.

Evans is an experienced rider, he should be able to handle 2 GTS. He just riding like many have in the past, so imo he really hasn't done anything to special in spain. Good ride yes, Extrodinary ride... no.

I never said he had an extraordinary race, he has performed well and he isn't finished yet, nor is the race. I am just stating a fact, as for Gesink breaking his wrist, it was after the 5th stage; he did have longer to prepare and it's good to see him having a great race.

Valverde is the one who impresses me. He brings results in all year long.

Yes, but he didn't do the tour and he is the favourite; but you still have to go out there and perform and he has done well; as has his team.

 

[auscyclefan94]

you could say the same for gesink. Remember like evans, his main season objective was the tour. Unlike evans, Gesink also had a broken wrist to deal with. Then again Evans rode the entire tour, but he rode it half pace, like LA did the giro. Finishing with the sprinters in the climbs? I doubt he wasted as much energy as past years.

Evans is an experienced rider, he should be able to handle 2 GTS at this stage of his career, even more so after a rather average ride in the first GT (Menchov similar position in 07 vuelta after a poor tour. He smoked the field.) He just riding like many have in the past, so imo he really hasn't done anything to special in spain. Good ride yes, Extrodinary ride... no.

Valverde is the one who impresses me. He brings results in all year long.

yes, gesink had a broken wrist but evans did have a throat infection and if he didn't have the bad luck on the Sierra nevada stage he would still be in contention for the win. valverde didn't do much in the classics this year so he hasn't done much since may when he started to hit some form.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

yes, gesink had a broken wrist but evans did have a throat infection and if he didn't have the bad luck on the Sierra nevada stage he would still be in contention for the win. valverde didn't do much in the classics this year so he hasn't done much since may when he started to hit some form.

He won the Klasika Primavera. A great race imo. (and what.. a week earlier then the ardennes?) Plus 2 stages in the Vuelta a Castilla y León... as well as the mountain, stage and combo classifications. Then he won the dauphne and burgos. Pretty solid results since april. Every year the guy wins races. True he should perform well here tho considering he hasn't rode a GT this season.

 

[Ripper]

Hi all, new here.

I like the looks of Sammy San. He is not too far back, there is 1 (possibly 2) stages that benefit guys who can drop like a rock on a mountain, as well as 1 more TT. Sammy San seems to get stronger as a GT moves on (compared to, say, Valverde or Evans), and he can TT and descend faster than Valverde.

I could be way off, but I am thinking this final week will have more fireworks than guessed at (um, not from Evans though).

So much for my life as a fortune teller!

 

[karlboss]

Cadel 2nd again

I had to laugh at myself and now I know that Valverde will be stripped pending the decision by the CAS. How?
I tipped Cadel to do well enough in the time trial to come second and then maybe win with a decision from the CAS, but now I realize his place is 2nd, hence valverde must be stripped. And for a tyre change, poor lad.